An Insider Looks At This Years Oscars Betting

Posted on February 25, 2012 by

The Oscars Betting

The glitz, glamour and gibberish of the Academy Awards take centre stage on Sunday as Hollywood convenes for its most famous night of back-slapping. There’ll be joy, tears, and expressions of gratitude to various deities; God, Jesus, L. Ron Hubbard – all the usuals. Even if it’s just to check out the dresses or the strained expressions of the nominees who don’t win, the Oscars ceremony is always worth a watch.

As a betting proposition, it’s pretty much a favourite-backer’s wet dream. In the Big Three categories of Best Film, Best Actor and Best Actress, if you’re fancied to win, then you’re pretty much laughing all the way to the after show party. The favourites tend to oblige – and by some distance. Of the 30 winners in the Big Three awards of the last 10 years, 22 of them have been favourites, which obviously tells us that on just eight occasions have they been denied.

Even when the apple cart of favouritism has been upset, it’s generally not by a complete outsider. Normally it’s someone else who was there or thereabouts, a couple of examples being Marion Cotillard winning for La Vie En Rose and Sean Penn upsetting Mickey Rourke’s performance as pretty much Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler.

That evidence points to the team behind The Artist needing a lot more Brasso in the near future. The homage to French cinema with the broken sound looks set to dominate and is a shoe-in to win Best Picture. Personally, we’d have liked more explosions, but we’re guessing that would have mean a lot more cleaning up after Uggie. Jean Dujardin is hotly-fancied to make it a Best Picture and Best Actor double for the film and it will no doubt pick up it’s fair share of the less-talked-about honours. The Best Actress category lacks the overwhelming favourite of other years, but it should still be good news for Viola Davis as eight of the last t10 gongs have gone in the direction of the market leader. And speaking of virtual guarantees, Octavia Spencer and Viola Davis are great bets to cry in their acceptance speeches.

Hollywood and Oscar voters seem be awash in nostalgia this year. Sunday night’s awards show looks like being more of a tribute to cinema’s past with its elder lemons like Scorsese, Streep and Spielberg all up for gongs. With 10 nominations for The Artist, including the best picture, it’s probably time to bring a Harvey Weinstein Juggernaut Award for the heavy hitter who knows how to run and win an awards season campaign like no one else.

Paddy Power’s Hollywood insider has dished some dirt, especially for you Over The Line readers, ahead of the biggest movie weekend of the year. “With the Academy members having been unmasked as being comprised of 94% white, 77% male and 54% over the age of 60, it shouldn’t be too surprising to see that what they vote for tends to be made by or to star people who are just like themselves,” our deep throat explained from an underground car park.

“How else to explain nominations for Spielberg’s War Horse or the sentimental and atrocious Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close? Gems like Melancholia or Shame were completely ignored.”

Our Tinseltown mole added: “All celebs say it’s ‘great to be nominated’ and they partly mean it. For the month between the nominations and the Oscars themselves, all nominees are golden and nearly all equal. They can get meetings with ANYONE and dine out on the lustre of what getting a nomination means in the industry.

“It’s not widely known, but most actors have it written into their contracts before a movie is even made that they get a bonus of $250,000 just for getting a nomination and $500,000 if they win. They will also get their pick of gigs for the coming years. As Jack Nicolson said in his Oscar acceptance speech for As Good As It Gets – ‘thanks for this. It means I’ve got work for the next couple of years’.”

Our silver-screen spy points us in the direction of one person anxious to break his duck in the Best Actor category. “George Clooney, who’s nominated for a Best Actor gong for The Descendants and a has been showing up at every cocktail party and cock fight for months now, pretending to love every inane question lobbed at him, understands the ‘business’ part of showbusiness. Ever the diplomatic and thoroughly likeable sliver fox, he tried to paint a more chilled out picture than his party attendances suggest.”
Clooney has previously said, “Awards are great in that they help people be aware of the industry and that can help the industry to grow, but in themselves they’re not the end of the world. You have to keep a bit of perspective here.”

It’s the year that’s seen some of the worst movies nominated for Best Picture. Yes, Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close, we’re looking at you. There have been occasional upsets, so clearly anything is still possible. Well, maybe not Whitney Houston jumping out of a giant cake. But you get our drift.

Related Links
- Oscars Betting
The Oscars ceremony is on Sunday and is live on Sky Movies HD from 11.30pm.

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5 Things You Need To Know About New Wolves Manager Terry Connor

Posted on February 24, 2012 by

Terry Connor Wolves Manager

Is it a stroke of genius? Or is it just the world’s most expensive version of the Football Manager game? Does Wolves owner Steve Morgan really think the unproven Terry Connor can save his side from having to make at least two trips to Yorkshire next season? Or does he just want a go at managing the team for himself and needs a puppet to facilitate his plan? Who knows, but here’s five facts that might give you the feeling you know Terry Connor a little better.

#5 Lots of experience: Despite never having been a manager is his own right, Connor (49, from Leeds, would you believe?) does have plenty of experience. Mainly of relegation. Connor was involved with THREE teams who went through the trapdoor during his playing days. In 1983 he was part of the Brighton team that finished bottom of the then First Division (now more trendily called the Premier League). In 1987 he was still at Brighton for the majority of the season that saw them finish last in the Second Division (now tarted up as the Championship) and a year later he went down from the First Division with Portsmouth.

#4 Bring the speedos: He does like to be the seaside, particularly during the 80s and early 90s. Connor completed a south coast double going from Brighton to Portsmouth. That was followed with a stint around the Bristol channel, firstly at Swansea and then later at Bristol Rovers, which – as a better look at the map suggests – is actually a bit of a drive from the sea. Possibly explaining why he didn’t stay there for long. (The love affair with the big blue ended in 2003, however. Terry Connor was involved in an unfortunate incident whereby he saved Phil Collins from drowning, prompting his decision to stay inland for the rest of his life, hence the move to terra firma of Wolverhampton. This may not be true.)

#3 Seventh time’s a charm: It’s widely known that Connor wasn’t the first choice for the job. Or second, third, fourth or fifth choice. Steve Bruce, Alan Curbishley and Walter Smith all reportedly turned down the position in recent days. In fact, there are suggestions he only got the job after the dinner lady from the club canteen turned it down as her bingo clashed with the 3pm kick-offs of the Premier League.

#2 He’s a nice guy: He seems to be a nice guy, so much so that Joleon Lescott calls him by one of those cool initial-based title along the lines of other all round good guys such as John Terry (JT), Kevin Pietersen (KP) and Jesus Christ (JC). “TC is one of the most influential coaches I have worked with in my career – and that includes everyone I have worked with. I owe him a lot,” said the former Wolves defender.

#1 You probably wouldn’t mind him when he’s angry: Being born on November 9, Terry Connor shares a birthday with fellow manager Phil Scolari and the Incredible Hulk, Lou Ferringo. Scolari famously failed at Premier League management when he was sacked from Chelsea whilst Ferringo has never managed a Premier League club, having been eighth on the list to succeed Mick McCarthy.

Related Links
- Wolves Relegation Odds
- Newcastle v Wolves – 3pm Saturday

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Carling Cup Final: Liverpool vs Cardiff (Forget the white suits – it’ll probably end 2-1)

Posted on February 24, 2012 by

Much of the chatter so far has centred on Craig Bellamy’s relationship with Cardiff and Liverpool’s first appearance at Wembley since that infamous white suit fiasco in 1996.

The Carling Cup occupies a strange place in the psyche of British football. It’s a trophy and a ticket to European football, but expressing a desire to win it at the start of the season is an early warning sign of dementia. Through the first, second, third and fourth rounds and maybe even as far as the quarter-final, it’s talked of as a horrid but necessary obligation. Like a dental appointment, but without the chance of a post-examination lollipop. Getting knocked out of the Carling Cup it is spun as a blessing. Joe Manager dishes out the line: “I’m not upset. Now we can concentrate all our efforts on finishing in mid-table obscurity.” It’s a regular occurrence in the post-match fare.

Something happens if the interest extends to the semi-finals and beyond, however. A sort of forgivable hypocrisy takes hold of managers, players and fans. A competition that a few weeks back was about as desirable as a dose of chlamydia, suddenly transforms into an object of desire and lust. “This means everything for the club,” someone of perceived authority will say during the closing stages which carries with it the subtext: “Ignore all those times when we fielded the kids and the crappy players we’re desperately trying sell.”

In fairness, Liverpool have treated it with respect this year and in other years. They’ve almost always fielded something approaching their strongest team, if only because there’s no point resting players for non-existent Europa League matches. Likewise, Cardiff have battled through four batches of extra time and two penalty shoot-outs to reach the final. It suggests they’re more arsed than most involved in the competition.

Looking back at the last 10 finals, the variety and origin of the finalists is remarkable, particularly if you’ve been accustomed to the Premier League where just four teams start the season with realistic chances of silverware and we’re lucky if that’s two or more come January. There’s also one other curious trend as illustrated by the fancy Over The Line graph below.

Carling Cup Final Betting

Carling Cup Final Betting

The proliferation of 2-1 victories in the Carling Cup Finals of the last 10 years is odd. ‘How Sven Goran Eriksson still gets work’ odd. In the last decade, the most minor of the major trophies deciders, 2-1 has been the scoreline at the end on six occasions – five times after 90 minutes worth of action and once more after extra time. That’s 50% or 60%, depending on how you look at it. Either way it’s a strangely high occurrence of the score.

Part of that is down to the fact that despite the big teams apparently not caring for the competition, they end up in the final rather a lot. Even when one less fancied team reaches the final, very often it coincides with another less high profile team being there, for example when Bolton and Middlesbrough met in 2004 or when relegation-destined Birmingham went up against the loveable losers of Arsenal last year.

The reason might have something to do with the lack of total mismatches in the last few years. Man United’s trouncing of Wigan was the exception rather than the rule. Snide comments aside, on paper Arsenal should have had a fairly comfortable afternoon against Birmingham 12 months ago, but their silverware drought continued thanks to a rare comedic defensive mix-up that has become a lot less rare in the intervening period. Based on recent form, you might think Blackburn’s win over Tottenham looks like it should have been an easy win for Spurs, but cast your mind back to anytime that’s not the last two years and you’ll recall that Spurs were actually a bit rubbish back then.

Cup finals seem to be cagey affairs with not much to separate the teams at the end. Even if one team is expected to dominate, it may not work out that way. Caution is advised, especially when it comes to Liverpool.

Related Links
- Carling Cup Final Betting

- Jason McAteer Padcast exclusive on the Carling Cup Final

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Arsenal v Spurs: Ailing Arsene Wenger Take On Happy Harry Redknapp

Posted on February 24, 2012 by

It seems slightly surreal to think the man who has led his club to eight consecutive top two finishes, three of which were title wins, could be forced out of Arsenal so ignominiously. Big changes are needed, in staff, in approach, in mentality and many other aspects of how the club and team is being run.

This weekend, Arsenal and Tottenham face off on Sunday in a North London derby at the Emirates (13:30, Sky Sports1) with the managers experiencing contrasting levels of support. Harry Redknapp is being wooed by the FA and fawned over by the media. He enjoys the loving support of Spurs and England fans alike. That may all change after the Euro 2012 Championships but for now Arry can’t do a thing wrong.

Arsene Wenger on the other hand is fighting to justify his very football philosophy as well as his position as the manager of Arsenal Football Club. This season will be his seventh without winning some silverware, falling far short of the bar he set himself when he arrived from Japan to revolutionise English football.

That shellecking at the hands of a decent but far from brilliant AC Milan side has forced him to admit some uncomfortable truths. “I felt we were never in the game, we were very poor offensively and defensively. It was shocking to see how we were beaten everywhere,” he candidly admitted following that 4-0 defeat and near certain exit from the Champions League.

The contrasing fortunes of the rival bosses is an interesting underlying narrative to this derby and one which should lend itself to an entertaining, passionate and preferably high-scoring game. Both sides are coming off poor results, Arsenal’s consecutive defeats to Sunderland in the FA Cup and then AC Milan and a very flat looking Spurs side were held to a scoreless draw by League One side Stevenage Borough in their FA Cup tie. Both sides have something to bounce back from and points to prove to differing degrees.

Given the derby atmosphere and their natural attacking styles of football, we can be hopeful that they’ll look to prove themselves by trying to score as many goals as they can. Recent history supports this. Last season the two sides met three times and shared 16 goals in those three games. Even adding in Spurs’ 2-1 win at White Hart Lane this season, that makes 19 goals in their last four meetings. That’s an average of nearly five goals a game.

The Arsenal players’ pride will have a taken heavy blow in the San Siro. If they don’t come out fighting in this game then Le Professor really is in trouble. Spurs, with water-walking Redknapp in charge, will believe they can add to Arsene’s misery. As long as there are plenty of goals to enjoy, the neutral fans amongst us will be happy.

Premier League Match Betting
Premier League Sack Race

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Weekend Horse Racing Preview – The Racing Plus Chase Betting

Posted on February 24, 2012 by

Records – they’re there to be broken. Love clichés, we do.

In the lead up to both the Cheltenham Festival and, more importantly, this weekend’s racing, much has been made of Paul Nicholls’ current barren patch.

From his last 34 runners in the last 14 days, the Ditchteat trainer has had one winner. Now he knows how Paddy feels about tipping. That’s not the kind of trend you’d associate with the Champion Trainer. If an improvement is not forthcoming this weekend, the Prestbury Park pilgrims may think again about supporting Nicholls over the Festival. Only Zarkander last week was a glimmer of hope in a dower couple of weeks for the trainer.

In his defence, Nicholls has been honest enough to reveal that a few horses have been suffering from coughs after racing. With all that in mind, mustering confidence in Michel Le Bon or Royal Charm to win the Racing Plus Chase will be difficult. Before a lengthy absence, nine year old Le Bon (not Simon’s brother) was regarded as a star for the future.

Rather than ease him back into racing, his trainer dropped him into a very competitive Hennessy where he finished a distant 10th behind Carrutthers. Ruby Walsh takes the mount this time but the horse will need to improve greatly to make the desired impact. It’s not beyond possibility however the stable negativity would put the most loyal of Nicholls disciples.

Speaking of terrible records, we don’t care for Kajagoogoo’s ‘Do You Really Want To Hurt Me’ much. Philip Hobbs’ record over the last 14 days is, if not worse, on a par with his rival. In 36 runners, Hobbs has only managed one winner too. If we apply the same logic as we do to Michel Le Bon, we’d throw Planet Of Sound out of our considerations along with the likes of Fiendish Flame and Mount Oscar.

However, in the race’s recent history, Hobbs has a record in the three mile event that any trainer would be envious of. A four-time winner of the Grade 3 Handicap – as recently as last year with Quinz – it would seem this may have been a deliberately target for his ten year old gelding. Richard Johnson is also the leading jockey in the race’s history with five victories to his name. Planet of Sound has never been a Cheltenham horse and his second to Carruthers in the Hennessy was great preparation. The step back to three miles will suit. Farmer Jack in 2005 for the same jockey-trainer combo was also achieved off the burden of 11 stone 12lbs.

Also on the card at Kempton is the hugely influential Adonis Juvenile Hurdle. Last year’s winner Zarkander went on to win the Triumph at the festival and whoever emanates from this competitive field will be going straight to the Cotswolds, perhaps even as favourite. Henderson, Hobbs, Nicholls all have leading chances in the race. Sadler’s Risk for the aforementioned Hobbs yard won comfortably last time out. Richard Johnson has also been talking up the four year old’s potential. (although, silence is golden normally in horse racing circles).

“He’s had one very nice run and needs one more run for a bit more experience before Cheltenham and this is ideal. He seems well at home and fingers crossed he can put a good run in. Hopefully the Triumph Hurdle is the main target.” Richard Johnson, Jockey.

All in all, it could be a very good weekend for the Hobbs/Johnson team this weekend. Even with the Cheltenham on the horizon, there’s quality action this weekend. Let us know your tips for the weekend. Do you fancy anything in the Eider Chase at Newcastle?

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Kilkenny and Tipp – In A League Of Their Own?

Posted on February 24, 2012 by

National Hurling League Odds

It feels like a long time since Kilkenny reminded the hurling world that they weren’t for the scrap heap just yet. In early September, they put the young upstarts of Tipperary in their place with a commanding display at Croke Park and since then we’ve been looking forward to resumption of the rivalry and seeing if anyone else can muscle in on the duopoly.

Describing it as an eventful off-season is like saying there’s a hint of ginger about Henry Shefflin. The off-the-pitch drama has come at a steady flow and the outcome of the upheaval means the start of the National Hurling League will be greeted with far more raised eyebrows than it normally would. Normally the Cats and Tipp reserve their one-upmanship until they’re out on the green stuff, but during the off-season, they brought competitiveness to the world of the shock retirement.

Even a Rolls Royce eventually builds up too many miles on the clock and although Eddie Brennan (33) was hardly decrepit, he decided to hang up his inter-county caman. That was understandable after more than a decade playing for Kilkenny and enough silverware to fill a GAA obsessed Aladdin’s cave. When the more youthful James ‘Cha’ Fitzpatrick (27) and John Dalton (26) decided upon their own self-imposed exile, there was more of a shock. Combined with the withdrawals of goalkeeper, PJ Ryan (34) and Micheal Kavanagh (32), the strength in depth of the panel has suddenly come into question. In reality, the Cats will simply dip into vast well of young talent and find a couple of replacements, but clearly they won’t be as experienced or as Championship-ready as they would like.

Not content with their rivals and neighbours hogging all the limelight, Tipp had one bombshell up their sleeve with the news that Lar Corbett was retiring from inter-county hurling. Despite being young enough not to remember when a time Mick O’Dwyer was considered the hot young managerial property of the GAA, he was one of the old hands of the squad and a key figure in providing leadership to the young panel. Then of course there’s all the points he scores. They miss him to some extent and a large part of the league campaign will be finding a formula that minimises the impact of his departure.

So to the first round of games and there must be no sense of leaving the best until last around the league headquarters because they jump right in with some cracking matches. Kilkenny and Tipp do battle in the Marble City on Sunday afternoon and with all the upheaval, making a prediction would be as ill-advised as telling Brian Cody that baseball caps are “soooooo early 90s”. It should be a great game and that’s as far as I’m prepared to go.

Under the Blue Wave strategy for global domination, Dublin need to win an All Ireland title of one description or another approximately every eight minutes. That heaps huge pressure on Anthony Daly, firstly to make a decent fist of defending their league title and secondly, to make further progress in the All Ireland. He has set a target of a Leinster title for his team and the road to making that happen starts against Galway. It’s unfair to label the Tribesmen a ‘one man team’, but without Joe Canning, they look a lot less elite. They have to do without his services for a few weeks and that will add to the sense of disruption as Anthony Cunningham looks to put his stamp on the job.

Before all that however, there’s something of a Munster hurling bonanza as a couple of sets of neighbours take their grievances to the hurling pitch. Davy Fitz brings his brand of high-pitched whining back home to Clare as he begins the county’s latest bid to pretend it’s still the mid-90s. His first game of note sees his team make the short trip to Limerick. Meanwhile, in Waterford they begin life after Fitzy. The one consolation is they don’t have to waste much time polishing silverware and can concentrate on starting afresh under Michael Ryan. They start the process against a Cork team who endured one of their most disappointing campaigns in recent history when they failed to reach last year’s quarter-finals. Jimmy Barry-Murphy has been drafted in to rebuild the Rebels. He has mountains of medals from his exploits as a dual hero for the county, but returning Cork to the top of the pile from this low point might actually be enough for his to be considered a Leeside version of Jesus. The league won’t make or break his plans, but they’ll give us an idea of what level of miracle to expect from him.

Related Links
- National Hurling League Matches
- National Hurling League Betting

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Paddy Power’s Too Hot For TV Chav Ad

Posted on February 23, 2012 by

Shockingly, our last TV Ad has been banned after just four days on TV. That’s some kind of record, even for us. We’ve been working on another one for a few days.

Dan Collins prayed on Paddy Power’s Facebook wall that the ‘Chavs’ wouldn’t ruin the Cheltenham Festival like they had Royal Ascot. We hear you, Dan and we hope that this will resolve your problem. Keep eye out for our expert marksman.

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