GOLDEN BOY: If you back the trends Rylan Clark is your winner this year
#BackTheTrend
By Josh Powell | Sports writer and Louis Walsh fan
The X Factor has been caught up in a storm of controversy this week after the first elimination on Saturday saw Carolynne Poole booted off. Bosses of the hit show have been accused of fixing the outcome after everyone’s favourite judge Louis Walsh was pictured apparently talking to a producer before taking the vote to ‘Deadlock’.
Gary Barlow threw a strop and stormed off stage as super-camp Essex lad Rylan Clark was saved by the public vote. Earlier in the night Rylan had received mixed reviews for his performance of Spandau Ballet’s 1983 hit ‘Gold’.
‘I was having fun until you started singing’, said Gary Barlow. ‘I’m embarrassed to be sat here. I don’t know how you’ve shown up tonight’.
Not a glowing review but looking at the trends from the X Factor’s eight series, Rylan has plenty going for him, including the backing of Grammy Award winner NeYo, and is incredibly the most likely to win the competition.
- The ‘Boys’ category has a 50 per cent success rate winning four of the eight competitions
- Tulisa has a 100 per cent strike rate as a judge winning her one and only X Factor in 2011 with Little Mix
- 87.5 per cent of the winners have come from England
- 62.5 per cent of the winners have come from the South of England
- The average age of the winner at the start of the competition is 23
Incredibly despite being a whopping 100/1 Rylan Clark is the man to back if you’re following the trends. As a 23-year-old lad from Essex in the ‘Boys’ category he is the most likely contestant to win looking at the trends. His mentor Nicole Scherzinger is making her debut on the programme so doesn’t have any previous form but she did come second in the US version.
Despite being a touch old at 25, Jade Ellis has a lot going for her as well. The ‘Girls’ category has a 25% success rate, she’s managed by Tulisa and she is from London. The 20/1 for her could prove great each-way value.
If he can hold his nerves together Jahmene Douglas is also worth a punt at 6/1. The 21-year-old gets the nod ahead of fellow category team-mate James Arthur because he is from Swindon where as James is from Middlesbrough.
It looks bleak for Gary Barlow however. He has lost his only appearance judging on the show so far and he is the mentor for the ‘Overs’ category. This category only has a 12.5 per cent success rate and only one of his three remaining acts is from the South. At 15/8 the Take That star looks great value to lose all his acts first.
Melanie Masson is a tasty 9/1 to be kicked off this weekend as all the trends are against her. Out of the eight series there has only been one Scottish winner, one winner from the ‘Overs’ category and she’s mentored by Mr Barlow.
(Editor’s note: Ella Henderson is 10/11 to win X Factor. The opinion expressed in this article is entirely the work of the author who missed last week’s show)
There is one vital trend which has been overlooked here, a trend which I would argue supercedes all others; the ability to sing. I cant remember a winner in the last 13 years being ‘the gimic’ of the show, infact they all have been credible acts (to some degree). Rylan Clark will never win for this reason. The fact he was in the bottom two last weekend only accelerates his doomed fate.
Rylan is shocking but X Factor is mental so couldn’t rule him out. Ella is favourite with good cause, but anything can happen this year …
You’re very right that one of the ‘gimic’ acts has never won the show, but you can’t underestimate how tone-deaf the public are.
Don’t forget that despite not winning, Jedward have an estimated combined worth of £4.5 million and in a 2010 teenage poll they were voted more popular than the Beatles. This makes me worry for society and also allows me to believe Rylan might actually, somehow, go quite far…