Paddy Power

Box clever: How to find the value in backing Carl Froch

by Josh Powell | November 15, 2012

CAN THE COBRA STRIKE AGAIN: Where is the value in backing Carl Froch?

Carl Froch’s demolition of Lucian Brute in Nottingham last May made him one of the most talked about boxers in recent times. The super-middleweight fighter has been heralded as one of the best in the business and after seeing off the best fighters in his field he is the world champion for the thrid time.

Unsurprisingly then Froch is 1/25 to see off Philadelphian fighter Yusaf Mack on Saturday night and that is not a working man’s price. Unless you’re earning some considerable wedge then this is a no bet situation. Paddy certainly doesn’t pay us enough to start lumping on at that price.

Put it this way, you’d need to stake £20 to make enough profit to buy a Yorkie chocolate bar, £62.50 to buy a jagerbomb in Leeds and £250 to earn enough to get into Tiger Tiger on a Saturday.

But there is a few ways to have a punt on the fight at tastier odds.

  • 52 per cent of Froch’s wins have come in the sixth round or earlier
  • Only 28 per cent of his wins have gone to a judge’s decision
  • Out of 29 wins he has knocked out his opponent 21 times
  • 71 per cent of his KO wins have come in the first six rounds
  • He has knocked out an opponent in round one on four occasions and round five on four occasions
  • Yusaf Mack has suffered four defeats, all by KO
  • All four of Mack’s knock-out loses have come between round six and eight

If you’re backing Carl Froch to continue his impressive run than this is where the value might lie. Yusaf Mack was disappointing in his last world title fight against Tavoris Cloud and is going to have to lose half a stone to make the weight for this bout.

With that, and the stats in mind, it may be worth backing Froch to win in round five at 8/1, round six at 10/1 or round seven at 9/1This is when it looks like The Cobra could finish off the fight.

The odds of Froch to win by KO or TKO are slightly appealing at 1/5 but still too slim. Instead back the Nottingham-born fighter to win between round one and six at evens. This is a classic Shakira bet - a touch short maybe, but smoking hot.

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