Paddy Power

Liverpool v Arsenal betting preview: It’s Gunner be tough for the home side to overcome the stats

We had a look over the last 10 years or so and 25 games to see if we could pick out some unusual trends. And it doesn't look great for the Reds.

by Aidan Elder | February 7, 2014

There will be goals – but maybe not too many

It’s not always a goal-fest – only eight of their last 25 meetings have seen them cross the ‘Over 3.5 Goals’ barrier often used to differentiate a ‘goalfest’ from something more run of the mill. But by and large both teams managed to get on the scoresheet at least once in the fixture. Both teams to score is chalked up at 1/2 while under 2.5 goals is a 5/4 chance.

  • There’s only been six clean sheets out of a possible 50
  • That means both teams have scored in 19 of the last 25 meetings

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Martin Skrtel team talk

It’s about time a defender scored

You’ve to go back nearly four and a half years and possibly consult Wikipedia to confirm the identity of the last defender to score on the scoresheet. It was Emiliano Insua (in the League Cup) – the Argentine and sometime Liverpool left back. Bet you weren’t expecting that.

Defenders have scored in the meantime, but none of them at the right end. Laurent Koscielny, Glenn Johnson and Pepe Reina (in particularly amusing fashion) have all been credited with an own goal since, but

  • Before Insua’s goal, defenders scored roughly one in every 10 goals scored in this fixture
  • 22 goals have been scored since that Insua goal

Now this may seem more than a little contrived coincidental but when Martin Skrtel scores  – Paddy has paid the price. The Slovakian stopper with a liking for body paint has scored twice this season and is 33/1 chance to open the scoring against the Gunners.

Podolski and Ozil Germany

Liverpool haven’t had much success lately

It’s all well and good looking at slightly obscure stats like how often defenders score in the fixture. But there’s one far more glaringly obvious stat staring us in the face, singing ‘1-0 to the Arsenal’ at the top of its voice.

Liverpool (11/10) have a pretty awful recent record against Arsenal (12/5), particularly at home. Liverpool haven’t beaten Arsenal at Anfield since the Champions League 2007/08 quarter-finals. For the Reds’ last league win on their own patch, you’ve to go back another year to 2007.

  • Liverpool have drawn three and lost three of their last six league games against Arsenal at Anfield
  • The Reds have won just five of their last 25 meetings with Arsenal in all competitions

LiverpoolArsenal1200

 

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3 Comments

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  1. Anonymous said on February 7, 2014 @ 9:26 pm

    Come on you gunners!

  2. Barry said on February 8, 2014 @ 9:49 am

    Those stats are wrong Insua scored in league cup

  3. Paul Mallon said on February 8, 2014 @ 12:37 pm

    We’ve hastily added that in. Thanks for the spot, Barry

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