Category: 
It’s tough being a bookie. All week long punters have been asking me for my Derby tips. They obviously didn’t follow my Cheltenham or Grand National tips - if they had, they might have learned their lesson by now. My only defence is that I’m not doing this deliberately.
In order to save us all some time. I thought I’d write down what passes for my thoughts on the big race. Obviously the betting is absolutely dominated by the Irish challenge with the shortest price English horse Crowded House at 25/1! (more about him later).
The favourite at 11/4 is John Oxx’s Sea The Stars. He was impressive in winning the 2,000 Guineas but his breeding wouldn’t suggest he’ll stay the Derby trip and the fact that he’s never run more than a mile in public would have to be taken into account at such a short price.
Aidan O’Brien’s Rip Van Winkle (4/1) is another horse that is hard to form an opinion on. On the one hand, he’s never really done it on the track - certainly not this year - so there’s a feeling that perhaps there’s a little too much hype about him. On the other, Johnny Murtagh picks him over Fame and Glory and that has to mean something. Could be anything!
Jockeys have been wrong before, however, and at 4/1 Fame and Glory has to be given some serious consideration. He’s done absolutely nothing wrong and won the Derrinstown trial at Leopardstown in fine style. Alongside the Dante (won this year by another Aidan O’Brien horse, Black Bear Island, who at 8/1 also has to enter the equation) the Derrinstown is the best indicator we have when it comes to the big day.
Except maybe for one - which brings me to my fancied horse at a big price. Crowded House won the Racing Post Trophy as a two year old. Just like Motivator and Authorized did in recent years before they went on to win the Derby the following year.
After spending the winter as favourite for the Derby, he was disappointing on his return in the Dante but Brian Meehan felt he wasn’t at his best that day. At 25/1 I’m prepared to take a chance that he just might come good.
After all, you know what they say. Form is temporary - class is permanent!
June 4th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
i’m with you paddy - you have to forgive that run in the dante.
don’t dream it’s over - crowded house wins the derby!!
June 4th, 2009 at 9:09 pm
It’s true what a distinguished Irish racing journalist said recently;the fact that Aidan O’Brien runs six in the Derby probably means even he does’nt know what his best horse is.
He’s firing six bullets hoping one hits the target!
I’m with the current favourite Sea The Stars to confirm the class he showed in the 2000 Guineas.Age of Aquarius is each way value at 20/1.
June 4th, 2009 at 9:32 pm
Dickie Johnson, 4 seconds yesterday, and 4 today, I had him on two of them, had 9/4 and 8/1 winners in yankee going onto the bridesmaid jockey, on two favs no less, beaten 1 and 1/4 lnght by 22/1 and in last race outsmarted by McCoy; tis no wonder u have so many 2nds when you ride like an alcohol numbed BRIDESMAID
June 5th, 2009 at 11:58 pm
Masterofthehorse IS going to win. Get on at 14/1 now or live to regret!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
June 6th, 2009 at 8:54 am
chris a friend of mine got a tip for that horse 3 months ago he and another friend (both buisnesmen) im not ,have 10 grand each on him.but the question i ask is why isnt Murtagh riding him.surely it wasnt about getting a price on him.
June 6th, 2009 at 9:10 am
Are there any Derby Day Katchphrase Comps on the PP Blog?