UFC 100 might have had the hype but UFC 101 offers a more promising night of action. From the high-profile clashes that top the bill, to the return to action of promising fighters Amir Sadollah and George Sotiropolous, there are potential fights of the night throughout the card.

BJ Penn v Ken Florian
BJ Penn’s latest outburst against George St-Pierre, where he accused the Canadian of using steroids based on nothing more than his own opinion; “I can’t hand you any proof, but that’s my opinion.” The logic behind this opinion is spurious to say the least. “The rest of us, we get fat, then we train and get skinny and the cycle goes over and over again. He looks the same way all the time. Come on.” Penn’s disbelief that a top athlete wouldn’t pile on the pounds between fights adds fuel to the commonly cited belief that BJ isn’t the most dedicated trainer in the world. This latest steroid dig and the greasing allegations he made against GSP after being outclassed in their last fight, do nothing to dispel the other commonly held belief that he’s a bit of a whiner.
So he’s not the most lovable of characters but that doesn’t warrant an automatic bet on Kenny Florian, especially as Penn hasn’t been beaten at 155lbs since losing his first clash with Jens Pulver in 2002. Though it must be noted that the Hawaiian has fought only seven times at lightweight since that loss, plus he’s been beaten four times in his last eight fights. Granted each of these defeats came when he stepped up in weight against top class fighters but even admirable losses take their toll. The difference between his first fight against GSP in 2006, when he lost a split decision, and their rematch in January of this year could be interpreted as a lack of progression in Penn’s game. There’s no questioning his natural ability but there are constant questions hanging over his conditioning and his dedication to the sport. Let us not forget that he was intending to retire had he beaten GSP last time out. Not the actions of a man with the fire still burning in his belly.

This is where things begin to look up for Kenny ‘Kenflo’ Florian. Having looked a decent but limited fighter throughout the Ultimate Fighter show, where he was pummelled to a decisive first round defeat by the enigmatic, or just plain weird, Diego Sanchez, the Boston native has since developed into a formidable all-rounder. Six straight wins since losing his first title challenge on points to Sean Sherk, with convincing victories over quality opponents Stevenson, Huerta and Lauzon setting him up for his second crack at the title. Whilst Florian is a better striker than some would give him credit for, and five submissions from his nine UFC wins tells of how dangerous he is on the ground, the most impressive weapon in his arsenal is his fight intelligence and tactical awareness. Staying on his feet against Roger Huerta could have been a big mistake but he kept his distance, moving in and out of range, picking up the points and avoiding El Matador’s dangerous hands. If he goes in with a similarly effective game-plan against Penn, then we could see a new lightweight champion crowned. Expect to see him attempting the leg kicks which GSP and Caol Uno used to good effect against the current champion and though Penn is arguably a more dangerous striker with a better chin, Florian could well keep the fight standing. Kenflo rarely takes a lot of damage on his feet and with this being a five rounder, he might decide to dance for a few rounds to test Penn’s conditioning, presuming he can avoid being taken down that is. On the ground Penn is a clear favourite but Florian is a legitimate BJJ black-belt so it’s unlikely to be a complete whitewash on the mat. GSP was able to pass Penn’s guard at will and Florian’s decision to spend some time training with the Canadian up in Montreal in preparation could improve his already very strong ground game enough to give him the edge.

Making predictions in MMA is always fraught with danger and the safe option is always to go with the favourite. A Penn win is likely to come in the form of an early stoppage while Florian will be planning on taking the fight into the later rounds, wearing down the champion to take the fight on points or by way of a late stoppage. If Penn has been spending his training camp just bitching about GSP and jumping out of swimming pools then he could be in trouble. This is little more than conjecture and Florian needs to be prepared for a BJ Penn at his very best. If he gets that then he’s going to struggle to survive but the suspicions are that the best days of the Hawaiian may well be behind him, as could be his reign as the UFC Lightweight World Champion.

Anderson Silva v Forrest Griffin
Less than impressive in his last two outings and overtaken by GSP as many people’s pound-for-pound number one, have opponents started to work out how to negate Anderson Silva or has he simply found things so easy in the UFC that he’s gone off the boil a little? The Brazilian can occasionally look a little too relaxed in the octagon, to the point of seeming disinterested, but the one thing he won’t be allowed to do by Forrest Griffin is relax. The Ultimate Fighter Series 1 winner has greater skills than he admits to but it is his heart and will to win which has made him one of the most popular and likable figures Dana White has on his books. So the fight is set up to go one of a number of ways. Silva could respond to the greater challenge of taking on the veracious and unrelenting Griffin by upping his performance and putting in the kind of master-class we begun to take for granted until his below par showings against Elites and Cote. Though there’s no evidence for it, Silva could struggle at the weight, against a more natural heavyweight. The one minute it took to knock out James Irvine in his previous light-heavyweight bout, told us little other than that the Sandman isn’t anywhere near the Spider’s class, no matter what division they’re in. It’s also possible that Silva could put in another lacklustre display and get caught out by a fired up and focused Griffin. Such are the possibilities of ifs and buts.

When making your bets on this one you’ll need to make sure your heart isn’t ruling your head. The romantic choice would be a heroic victory for Forrest but in the light of the facts there really is only one winner. Silva has yet to look troubled, winning nine from nine in the UFC, while Griffin, for all his heart, has been stopped by both Rashad Evans and Keith Jardine, neither of whom are anywhere near as dangerous a striker as the current middleweight champion. Silva to win by an early stoppage to make it a perfect ten in the octagon and set himself up nicely for the defence of his title against Dan Henderson and then perhaps a shot at Lyoto Machida’s light heavyweight belt, if he’s still wearing it by then.

Best of the rest;
The big appeal of the UFC is the unpredictability of the fights. Fans tend to turn up early for fear of missing the fight of the night, which is as likely to be on the undercard as it is the main event. There are however some fighters worth looking out for. First up we see the return to action of Australian George Sotiropolous, who has spent the last year out with various injuries. Well-rounded, tough and extremely fit, George should make short work of his namesake George Roop and a first round ko is on the cards for a fighter who will be eager to return with a bang.
Similarly, TUF 7 winner Amir Sadollah has failed to make an appearance since beating the over-rated CB Dolloway for the second time over a year ago. A series or injuries has resulted in him having to pull out of bouts but each time it’s been pretty close to fight night. This means he’s been in training camps whenever he hasn’t been injured, so a well-conditioned, injury-free and somewhat frustrated Sadollah could make quick work of UFC debutant Johnny Hendricks. First night nerves have gotten the better of many a fighter and first round win for Sadollah looks the best bet here.
Kendall Grove could put in a dazzling display but is as likely to have a stinker, if he’s fit and focused he’s a good bet to beat the favoured Almeida. Josh “The Dentist” Neer and Kurt “Batman” Pellegrino meet in a battle of the nicknames, history tells us this one will be decided on the mat, so a submission win for whoever you fancy looks the way to go.

This entry was posted on 11:49am Friday, August 7th, 2009 at 11:49 am and is filed under Sportsbook. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site. By commenting on this site you agree to abide by our terms and conditions.

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