Football pundit and analyst Andy Gray gives his thoughts to the Paddy Power Blog Team ahead of the crucial play-off finals at Wembley this weekend.

Bradford v Northampton, Live Saturday, 1.30pm, Sky Sports 1

League Two Play-off Final

Bradford have lost just three games since Swansea beat them in the Capital One Cup Final and have the chance to cap a memorable season this afternoon at Wembley.

They’ve been there and done that already against the Swans and that might just make it ‘advantage Bradford’ in the final. Phil Parkinson’s side have that added experience but Northampton are hitting form at just the right time too. It’s a tough one to call but I can’t help feeling that maybe the Bantams have one or two more match-winners in their side.

That might just swing it for them and I’ll go for the Bradford to get some play-off compensation at 13/10 today.

• Betting: Bradford v Northampton  

Brentford v Yeovil, Live Sunday 1.30pm, Sky Sports 1

League One Play-off Final

Brentford are  zero wins from five and that’s not ideal in a match of this importance. But they’ve not got a good record against Yeovil in the head-to-head games and that should count for something for Yeovil. But Brentford have done well to recover from what happened at Doncaster and they’ve got a second chance and Uwe Rosler won’t want to let that slip by the wayside.

The only German manager in England’s four divisions is someone I’ve plenty of time for and he’s very ambitious.  But Yeovil are no pushovers and both sides will feel they can win this. It could go all the way and it might even take extra-time and even penalties to separate them.

I’m just going to give the nod to Brentford at 6/5.

• Betting: Brentford v Yeovil 

‘And now the end is near, and so I face the final curtain’. We can’t bring you Frank Sinatra but expert football pundit and analyst Andy Gray is joining Paddy Power for one last time as the Premier League season draws to a close. Don’t worry too much though, he could well be making a spectacular return next year and he is looking to finish on a high.

Here are his tips on the last day of Premier League action.

Andy Gray’s double:
Spurs to win & Arsenal to draw: 4/1

Newcastle v Arsenal, Sky Sports 1, 4.00pm

Arsene Wenger will want to make sure his team concentrate on the job they have to do and not get caught up in what’s going on at White Hart Lane. Alan Pardew made a strange statement last week along the lines that ‘now that we’re safe we can lose the last game 4-0′.

But I don’t believe that. I think Pardew will ask for a really big effort from his players against the Gunners and the Geordie fans will certainly demand it.

If there’s going to be an upset in either of these games then I think this could be it. Arsenal’s 4-1 win against Wigan mid-week sounded convincing – but it wasn’t. They were nervy and anxious. Their results speak for themselves though and the Gunners have won seven and drawn two of the last nine league games since March – but I think they’ll slip up against the Magpies.

I fancy a 1-1 draw at 17/2 with Paddy Power which – depending on the result at White Hart Lane – might not be good enough for the Gunners.

• Betting: Newcastle v Arsenal

Tottenham v Sunderland, Sky Sports 2, 4.00pm

Unless Tottenham collapse or freeze on the day I can’t see them not taking all three points to heap the pressure on Arsenal to get a result at Newcastle.

They’re really driving towards the finishing line this year and Gareth Bale has been in terrific form with three goals in his last five league games. I think Spurs will win this comfortably at 3/10 with a 2-0 home win trading at 11/2.

Paulo Di Canio has laid down the law at Sunderland and just this week was fining players and is bringing some in for training on Monday! The Italian is making his mark but I don’t think the Black Cats are good enough to get a result against Spurs.

• Betting: Tottenham v Sunderland

• Betting: Premier League coupon

Matt Chapman | Day One York preview

Sir Michael Stoute’s stable mightn’t be the force it once was but you’d want to be mad to think he’s going to York’s three-day Dante fixture without some serious chances.

Mind you, it won’t be in the Dante, with the news that Telescope is out of the big Derby test – more on that later in the week  – as Stoute looks for his first European Group 1 win since the  mighty Epsom Derby winner Workforce.

It could, however, be in the Tattersalls Musidora as let’s face it, if there is a possible Epsom contender in this heat then either Stoute’s Liber Nauticus or John Gosden’s Woodland Aria simply have to win – and win well.

Six winners of the Musidora have gone on to victory in the Oaks. The first was Noblesse in 1963 – the most recent Sariska in 2009.

Classic contenders

Woodland Aria is definitely worth a close look as connections were bullish when she made a winning debut at Wolverhampton. Gosden has landed the last two Musidora’s with The Fugue and Joviality.

The best of Stoute’s recent Oaks Trial victories at York was Islington in 2002 and both are owned by Ballymacoll Stud.

A CHEEKY PUNTl:  Liber Nauticus lands a Goodwood gamble last September

Liber Nauticus looked a proper prospect on her debut at Goodwood. The second that day was Heading North who has won since as has the fourth Great Timing. Although, third-placed Cushion remains a maiden.

Quite simply, if Liber Nauticus is to prove an Oaks filly she HAS to win the Group 3 Musidora Stakes  (2.45) on Wednesday.

Big Sprints

For those of you who like big sprints, the Duke of York Stakes (3.15) is the race for you.

I have given favourite Mince a hug back at Roger Charlton’s base, but she will have to run a mighty race to land this first time out – no matter how quickly she’s improving. Penalties make things hard for Gordon Lord Byron and Society Rock, while I am not sure Tickled Pink is as good as her win earlier this season suggested.

It’s a race to look for one that’s over-priced and Swiss Spirit is interesting on the first run for Gosden.

But the one I suggest  is Hawkeyethenoo. He’s had the seasonal debut to get rid of the cobwebs and loves York. Graham Lee is a plus and with Paddy Power paying 1/4 the odds the first four home looks a bit tasty at 1t 14/1. Yeeehaaa!

• Betting: Has Matt got a point? All the latest cards, form and odds here

Some things are more important to recognise than a new contract of your own. @TheBig_Sam celebrates his great pal, Alex Ferguson…

A blisteringly hot day in July 2011 and Big Sam is hiking around the gorgeous surroundings of the Holy Island of Lindisfarne with a friend. As tiredness begins to take its toll on my taut yet weary limbs, I stop and lean shakily against an old wall. Despite being assured by the lads at Opta that my lungs are in the top one per cent of lungs in the game, I am wheezing like a Victorian whore.

As I splutter and cough myself into a dizzy stupor, bits of Mr Kipling Manor House splatter across my lapels, and my cheeks become imbued with the reddish hue of exhaustion. I sit down and place my head between my knees. I’m not usually prone to melodrama, but at this point in time, I am certain I am about to die.

Sir Alex is God

Then something incredible happens. I feel my Regatta Seacombe sandals being removed gently from my cracked and broken feet. A bottle of Evian is then poured soothingly over my tootsies, before they are dried delicately by an outrageously soft Sheridan Egyptian hand towel. I grin knowingly, and raise my head to see a pair of shimmering blue eyes and a smile that could make a lesbian queef. He is surrounded by light and emits a glow of pure celestial radiance. As he washes my feet with a humility that is as startling as it is moving, he reaches out and strokes my cheek.

“You’re my tired little bear, aren’t you?” he says, with a chuckle. This was the moment when I knew, without a shadow of a doubt, that Sir Alex Ferguson was descended from the right hand of the Father.

My friendship with Sir Alex needs no introduction, embellishment or fanfare. He is the single most important part of my life. Everybody knows it; my wife knows it, mother knows it. I remember one particular moment at an LMA barbeque; they’re always lavish, raucous affairs, and Sir Alex and I were killing it with a cracking comedy routine about race relations. It was both provocative and uproarious, and had the room in absolute stitches. Afterwards, a still-chortling Howard Wilkinson came up to us and said: “You two are utter bloody perfection together. Sir Alex is the cake, and Big Sam is the icing.” It was as touching a compliment as I’ve ever been given, and I’m not afraid to admit that I cried. Everyone shifted around in embarrassment for a few seconds, before Sir Alex cut the tension by throwing a nearby Stephen Hawking over a hedge, and shouting, “Look – it’s Bernie Clifton!” His razor-sharp wit saved the moment, and had us all in kinks of laughter again. His charisma can destroy all kinds of barricades.

BEST OF PALS: Alex Ferguson with Not Big Sam

This week, after a glorious managerial career that spanned an incredible five decades and saw him snag more glittering silverware than Bobby Moore in a jewellery shop, Sir Alex announced his retirement, and plunged the country into a deep, dark well of mourning. This man has been a constant in my life for as long as I remember. If I ever needed advice or guidance, he was always a phone call away. Whenever I’ve needed a recommendation for a job, it was Sir Alex I turned to. That time I got my Xbox 360 Media Remote wedged into my anus, the great man was the only person who could see past the ramifications and social degradation, and fish it out without judgement. I’m going to miss him more than words can ever express.

Sir Alex is that warm cup of coffee that jolts me into action in the morning; he’s the satin sheets that envelope my writhing, naked body at night. He is my rock.

A word about Paddy Crerand

I’ve spent the last few days trying to find the perfect gift for Sir Alex; something that shows my devotion to a man who has done so much to shape the very hulk of granite and elegance that is Big Sam. Chocolate, flowers, Cath Kidston tote bags; nothing I found could even come close to evoking my feelings. In the end, I stripped it all back and recorded a raw, aching version of ‘re: Stacks’ by Bon Iver, and sent it to him. I’m yet to receive any feedback, but I don’t need any. He’s got a heart bigger than Katy Perry’s forehead, that man. He’ll have felt it. By Christ, he’ll have f**king felt it.

On Wednesday evening – mere hours after the announcement – certain intermediaries made it very clear to me that, should I want it, the Manchester United job was mine. Paddy Crerand even called me up and said that a contract had already been drawn up and was waiting for my signature. He did, however, also tell me that he was on the hunt for communists, before loudly vomiting on the handset and blurting out a rather bizarre non sequitur about dwarves being “a shower of bastards, on the whole”, so I’m not convinced Paddy is the most reliable of sources.

I don’t want to embarrass Sir Alex by fixing their midfield

In the end, I decided I just didn’t want to replace my hero. I want his achievements to remain crystallized and etched in ancient footballing stone. There are few sadder, more poignant moments in this life than the son surpassing the father. Sure, I could go to Manchester United and fix their midfield, or improve their frankly wretched record in the UEFA Cup, but is it worth it to see Sir Alex squirm with shame, as his legacy is shattered to dust by my own meaty hands? I think not. I’ll forge my own dynasty here at West Ham, if it’s all the same to you.

Despite having a vast treasure chest of memories involving Sir Alex, I am always drawn back to that summer’s day spent rambling in Northumberland back in 2011. It came amidst a difficult time for Big Sam; while Sir Alex was still basking in the glory of winning his 12th Premier League title, I was unemployed, miserable, and spent my  days watching ‘Baise-moi’ on repeat, eating Findus Crispy Pancakes by the dozen and calling in bomb-threats to a wide range of national retail outlets.

NO LAUGHING MATTER: When Crerand starts to talk about communists, it’s time to hang up

Sir Alex dropped by the house to check on me one afternoon, and found me in the kitchen, sagged into a half-deflated paddling pool. He saw the pain I was in, and knew in an instant what was needed. “Get up you fat f**king poof, and pull yourself together,” he roared, with legendary ferocity. “There are people in this world with no legs or pensions, and you’re behaving like this? Bloody disgrace.”

How the great man saved me

In a flash, I was plucked from the tree of self-pity, and catapulted straight back into the lush garden of real life. “Let’s go walking,” he added, a smile replacing his furious scowl. As he was helping me up, he glanced at the colour of some of the liquid that was under me in the pool. I’d be lying if I said it was all water. “Squeaky-bum time?” he asked, before giving me a wink, ruffling my hair and making me feel like a million f**king dollars. That one minor incident charted and displayed all the traits that make him the man he is; from steely-willed enforcer, to tender guardian, and then to hilarious, self-referential showman in a matter of minutes.

I know Sir Alex is not leaving my life entirely. I’ll still see him at LMA functions and at lacrosse practice. It won’t be the same, though. I am entering a dark new world of terror and fear, but I have to be strong.

One thing I must  do is visit the great man at his place of work — his kingdom — one last time before he retires. I think it’ll be cathartic. I want to stand opposite Sir Alex in his office, and enchant him with one of my favourite lines of poetry:

‘Me? ‘I’m scared of everything. I’m scared of what I saw, I’m scared of what I did, of who I am, and most of all I’m scared of walking out of this room and never feeling the rest of my whole life the way I feel when I’m with you.’

I’ll get him to ask me a relevant question first, so the quote makes sense. Otherwise I’ll look like a right ballbag. And when it’s all said and done, he’ll be gone. And then only Big Sam will remain. And then I’m the daddy, now. Everything is going to be fine.

• Dive into Paddy Power’s, er, Squeaky-bum time special on Manchester United v Swansea right here
• Read more from Not Big Sam on Jessica Ennis, Rafa, Aston Villa, and more, over here
  
• Watched Hitler’s reaction to Alex Ferguson’s retirement yet?

Not Big Sam is a parody account on Twitter which can be found here. It is in no way related to Sam Neill, Sam Adams, Sam Allardyce or Sam Fox.

Expert football pundit and analyst Andy Gray has joined Paddy Power to give his insight on Super Sunday’s crunch Premier League fixtures. There’s plenty to fight for with top four places up for grabs and the relegation battle heating up. Luckily Mr Gray is here to try to help us win a few pennies on a jam-packed Sunday of footy.

Andy Gray’s double
Manchester United and Tottenham to win: 6/4

Stoke v Tottenham, Sky Sports 1, 1.30pm

Tottenham weren’t at their best against Chelsea, certainly Gareth Bale was nowhere near it, but they stuck in there. In the last 15-20 minutes of that game they could have gone onto win it. That says a lot about them.

Spurs should beat Stoke and keep up the pressure for fourth. Unlike Chelsea’s game with Villa where there could be a few goals, don’t expect that with Tottenham v Stoke. It will be a tight and uncompromising match. Tottenham should shade this one and win at 10/11, the best bet is Spurs to win by one goal at 5/2.

They will want to finish the season strongly. They don’t want to give Arsenal or Chelsea a spot by losing a game. They need to make them work it. That’s the kind of message Andre Villas-Boas will be giving his team, make the other clubs earn their Champions League spot. To do that Tottenham have to beat Stoke and the smart money is on them doing just that.

• Betting: Stoke v Tottenham

Manchester Utd v Swansea, Sky Sports 1, 4.00pm

Would you want to be a Manchester United player selected in Sir Alex Ferguson’s last home game and went and lost it. No-one would want that on their CV as a footballer and no United player would want to be part of that. This will be a cup final-like attitude from the Manchester United players to send their manager away because I’m not so sure Sir Alex will take charge of his team against West Brom in the final week.

The emotion on Sunday, there will be tears, a celebration, a farewell and huge emotion. It will be everything people want it to be and a coronation of a team winning the Premier League again, and the coronation of a new man coming in. It will have every kind of emotion you can think of and the players will have to detach themselves from that for 90 minutes and get the job done.

The odds of 3/10 are generous and you’d expect United to win in style.

The man who has done the most to win the title this season, the man who Fergie took a chance on, the one that the boss spent £24 million on because he knew he’d make the difference. Robin van Persie is nailed on to score the first goal at 5/2.

• Betting: Manchester Utd v Swansea

Expert football pundit and analyst Andy Gray is hoping to earn a few pennies for Saturday night and he’s using the FA Cup Final to fund his disco dancing. He’s joined the Paddy Power Blog team to give his verdict on the FA Cup Final between Manchester City and Wigan.

Manchester City v Wigan, ITV, 5.15pm

Everyone will expect Manchester City to win this well – but I’m not so sure. Roberto Mancini’s side have had much the better of it in the Barclays Premier League meetings and haven’t lost to Wigan in their last nine games.

I’ve delved into the form book and these sides have met 25 times since 1971. Nearly half of those games – 12 to be precise – have finished 1-0 to either side with four ending in 1-1 draws.

So almost two-thirds of these games have been that close so we’ll have to consider that although I fancy Manchester City to win given their squad, flair players and ability to get results when they really need them.

I was at Goodison Park when Roberto Martinez’s side beat a good Everton in the quarter-final and if they can repeat that kind of performance they’ll surprise a few.

But I expect City to win – but it won’t be by much. A 1-0 scoreline is 13/2 with Paddy Power and that looks about right to me.

• Jump in to all the betting for the FA Cup Final here

This week @AmyEustace ponders Wayne Rooney’s Old Trafford future following David Moyes’ appointment as Alex Ferguson’s successor.

If, like me, you’re one of the many football fans who have never known a world in which Fergie doesn’t stalk the Old Trafford touchline, chomping gum, chewing out referees and dictating the ebb and flow of injury time, you’re probably doing some soul searching. It was bound to happen some time, but then again, so is the end of the world and we’re not quite ready for that yet, either. This week, the news that Sir Alex Ferguson was stepping down after twenty six years as Manchester United manager all but broke the internet.

If (also like me) you’re not exactly Ferguson’s biggest fan, you may be ready to dance on his managerial career’s proverbial grave. Like him or not, most will concede that one of the game’s true greats is gone and that nothing will ever really be the same. Under Fergie, it was more or less a given that United would continue their dominance – at least until senile dementia kicked in. Now, the league feels wide open, a vast unknown, even if he has undoubtedly left behind a lasting legacy.

The thought of a Manchester United without Ferguson boggles the mind, but an altogether less difficult concept to wrap your head around is the thought of Wayne Rooney leaving Old Trafford. The want-away Scouse striker has had an even more surly look about him than usual as of late. To be fair, it has been coming; Rooney has been decidedly different ever since an unfortunate chain of events beginning with an ankle injury in a Champions League tie with Bayern Munich in March 2010, culminating in his apparent total mental breakdown the following October.

ON THE WAYNE: Since his 2010 transfer request Rooney has gradually become less important (pic:Inpho)

He handed in a transfer request in true toys-out-of-pram style in the hopes of a cross-town transfer to Manchester City. The shock move was quickly reversed, when he penned a multi-million pound contract with United instead. Though the former Everton star later described the whole affair as the ‘biggest mistake of his life’, he never quite won back the many of the United fans whose hearts he broke that day.

He started 2010 with a blistering hot streak – scoring 19 goals in 18 games – but ended it in a thankless drought, leaving fans and neutrals alike scratching their heads as to whether Ferguson had been right to keep the striker and not leave him out to pasture as punishment for his audacity. Of course, the manager was proven right – Rooney’s contribution to United’s title success in 2011 and indeed this year is not to be dismissed – but now that he seemingly wants to leave again, it’s unlikely that the club will repeat the level of effort they put in to keeping him before.

Then, he famously craved a club with ‘more ambition’. In a way, he got exactly what he wished for. United’s splurge on Robin Van Persie has reduced Rooney to a secondary role and he was left out of the side which faced Real Madrid at Old Trafford in the Champions League. He has already poignantly removed the words ‘Manchester United player’ from his Twitter biography and has been plainly agitating for a move away from Old Trafford for months.

A Rooney repeat on Dave?

Now, of course, there’s the David Moyes dimension. The announcement that the Everton manager will be Ferguson’s successor could make or break the whole engagement. Rooney and Moyes have previous, of course. The Scot nurtured his burgeoning, somewhat terrifying teenage talent at Everton but libel proceedings following the publication of allegations against Moyes in the England star’s autobiography soured their relationship. The pair have since buried the hatchet, but at a time when Rooney seems disillusioned with football in general, is that enough to spark another u-turn?

Roo Needs Ya?: Is he set to walk out on Moyes for a second time? (pic:Inpho)

After all, while the seed of discontent festers within Wayne Rooney’s potato brain, Moyes will still be winding down Everton’s quintessentially ‘meh’ season. Even if he wanted to keep the striker – which is a matter for debate – for the moment at least the issue will remain unresolved; the first of the countless challenges he will no doubt face down Sir Matt Busby Way.

As for whether or not Moyes should keep Rooney, the answer is probably not. This is the second time in three seasons that Rooney has clamoured for a move and, as a senior player by now, it’s unlikely to have a positive effect on his teammates. It’s interesting to see how the reaction to his apparent desire to leave United differs from 2010 – then it was shock and anger, now it just seems like United have had enough. His obvious skill aside, it’s probably best for all involved if Rooney finds a new home.

The question for Wayne is not so much when as it is where. He’s hardly the cosmopolitan Englishman suited to continental football. More of a brute than a Beckham. Then again, if Joey Barton can do it, there’s hope for anyone. The idea of a swap deal with Real Madrid for the self-confessedly ‘sad’ Cristiano Ronaldo would appease the masses, but the idea of Ronaldo answering to David Moyes doesn’t quite fit after years under José Mourinho. Perhaps the dream of the prodigal son’s return to Old Trafford died with Ferguson’s retirement.

Certainly moving to another English club would guarantee Rooney a rocky ride on any visit to Manchester. He would only realistically be affordable to Chelsea or Manchester City; a transfer to either would certainly give the Old Trafford terraces something to shout about. Piers Morgan has said that should Rooney move to Arsenal, he’ll stop calling him Shrek. Obviously that’s all that Wayne ever wanted. To be loved. By Piers Morgan.

A Manchester United spokesperson the other day claimed, “Wayne Rooney is not for sale”. The new manager, and the man himself, may disagree. Keeping him now against his will would be insanity. Moyes knows ‘how hard it will be to follow the best manager ever’ and the act will be difficult enough without a tempestuous toddler like Rooney picking his nose and grunting at him from the bench. If he is ever going to earn the level of respect Fergie had from his players by default, his first act should be some weed-chopping before the cancer of disillusionment spreads.

Bruce Yourself

Steve Bruce, United skipper in Ferguson’s earlier days in Manchester, gave probably the best and most self-aware quote of the week in the aftermath of Hull City’s promotion to the Premier League on Sunday. Asked what he would do to celebrate, he said: “I’ll have a few beers and I’ll enjoy it now. I’ll try to relax and put this horrible body on a beach somewhere hot and see how red it goes.” Relaxing for him, probably not for anybody else on that beach.

High Times in Holland

Meanwhile, in the Netherlands, fans of ADO Den Haag fell ill and fainted in the stands during a match after receiving some ‘corporate hospitality’. It was later revealed that they had eaten ‘space cakes’ or ‘hash brownies’, if you will, in the corporate boxes. That’s one way of inducing stadium atmosphere, I suppose, but Den Haag were quick to deny any responsibility for the incredibly ‘high’ level of service provided…

Mad Mario Kart

If there is one thing this season has been sorely lacking, it’s tales of Mario Balotelli’s off pitch exploits. This week, in Mario-land, he took his £200,000 Ferrari out on a mini-kart track, circumventing terms in his contract with AC Milan that prohibit him from karting for fear of injury. According to track owner Joe Ghiringhelli, who spoke to the Daily Mail, he spent almost an hour there. “We let him take his new Ferrari out on the track and he was roaring around laughing and having fun.”

Ruby Walsh has been supporting them for as long as he can remember and through their shared interest in the turf, he’s got to know Sir Alex Ferguson. He pays tribute to the retiring Manchester United legend

I’m biased because I was sitting in the stand at the end where all the goals went in, but winning the Champions League to clinch the treble in 1999 was undoubtedly the greatest achievement of Alex Ferguson’s time at Manchester United. To build such an incredible team, winning a league, FA Cup and then have them come back in the manner they did to complete the treble, there’s nothing like it.

I wish I could say all the United fans still believed right until the end, but as the clock ticked to 9o minutes, our end of the stadium was a very quiet place. The Nou Camp felt like it was split right at the half-way line and all you could hear was the Germans singing in the distance. Where I was felt like a morgue, but that all changed quite rapidly. When Teddy Sheringham got the equaliser, there was just an immense feeling of relief that we were going to extra time, but not sooner had we sat down than Ole Gunnar Solskjaer got the winner and it was all over. It was a brilliant night and one of the sporting highlights of my life.

What Sir Alex has done at United is incredible … he’s the best I’ve seen in my lifetime

The question about him being the greatest manager in British football history – that isn’t even a question for me. It’s beyond doubt. It’s maybe not fair because I wasn’t around to see Matt Busby or Bill Shankly, but what Sir Alex has done at United is incredible and he’s easily the best I’ve seen in my lifetime.

Some managers focus on motivating players, for others it’s the tactics and then you get the wheeler-dealers who can build a decent team from the transfer market. Fergie had it all and you don’t get to where he was without having it all. He built teams, he was constantly able to motivate players and he mostly got his team playing in the right way to ensure they won. He didn’t buy too many duds – there were a couple, but every manager will have those – he nurtured young talent, but no-one was bigger than the club and or bigger than him and he’d send them backing if the situation required it. The players always knew they had to respect him and the club.

Getting Eric Cantona when he did was his best bit of business. He got him for a song and he was the missing cog in the machine that brought it all together. Even though he was only at United for five years, it laid the foundations for all the success that followed. If you think about how much it would cost to buy a player like Cantona now, £1.2 million was an absolute giveaway.

Cantona was Fergie’s best signing … £1.2 million was an absolute giveaway

I’ve met Fergie plenty of times and although there’s probably lots of ABUs who like to think he’s some sort of monster, it couldn’t be further from the truth. He’s an absolute gentleman and very good company. He’s tough, but he’s fair, he’s a good guy to ride for. He knows his racing inside out and he might talk about how to deal with pressure situations and that sort of thing but he’d never talk tactics with me.

Some United fans seem a bit divided on David Moyes getting the job, but I’m very much pro-Moyes. He’s done a great job at Everton, clearly has a good knowledge of football and if he could do half as good a job as Sir Alex, he’ll be a great appointment for the club.

• Find out what chance Manchester United have of retaining their title in the post-Ferguson era&lt

TIGER WOODS: He ain’t no Monk

By Lawrence Donegan | The Players Championship

At this stage in the proceedings it has been fairly well established that Tiger Woods isn’t a monk but, still, it came as the something of a surprise to click on the well-known American celebrity gossip website USmagazine.com (I read it so you don’t have to) and find a report that the great man was tripping the light fantastic at a big celebrity event in New York on Monday night.

As US Magazine’s very own Woodward and Bernstein wrote: “Woods fell while walking up a small flight of stairs – and didn’t move from the spot until (Lindsay) Vonn, clenching her teeth and looking embarrassed, helped him up and guided him (swaying a bit as he walked) to the exit.”

Few Beers

Clearly there is nothing wrong with a grown man having a few beers on a night out with his girlfriend. However, when the gentleman in question is Tiger Woods and the big night out happens on the Monday of The Players Championship – the tournament that likes to call itself the fifth Major – questions need to be asked.

Needless to say when Woods appeared before the press at TPC Sawgrass on Tuesday morning, the questions were asked.

• Can you even talk about any tournament being a fifth major?
• Do you think you would have gone to a red carpet event in the week of a major championship?

Woods was both diplomatic and nimble in response but there was no denying his presence in New York and no escaping this essential truth: There is NO CHANCE he would be wandering down the red carpet three days before the start of a major championship.

Equally true – Woods doesn’t consider The Players to be a major championship. He doesn’t even like the tournament or the golf course it is played on, the Pete Dye-designed Stadium course at TPC Sawgrass.

PITCH AND PUTT: The infamous 17th hole separates the men from the boys

In this, the World No1 is not alone. Rory McIlroy has gone on record numerous times stating his dislike of the venue. A few years back Lee Westwood didn’t even bother turning up for the tournament, citing his indifference to the golf course and the event’s major championship pretensions. Phil Mickelson may have won there in 2007 but the Stadium course’s attractions are lost on him too.

Power and Flair

What all of the above players have in common – apart from their brilliance – is their ability to overwhelm any golf course with power and, when the occasion demands, flair. The problem, at least from the point of view of Woods and Co., is that the Stadium course doesn’t reward power or flair. It rewards caution and persistence. It looks kindly upon the risk-averse, upon those players for whom flair means the wide part of a trouser leg.

Even the medium-length hitters in the field will only need to hit their driver a handful of times over 18 holes. Sure, the lakes and ponds that are dotted around the course look great on television but as features on a championship golf course they are curse on those who seek excitement – why would a player go for the green in two on a par-five when the penalty for a marginal miss-hit is a wet ball and one (or possibly two) dropped shots?

Only a killjoy would deny the fun and excitement of the famous island green of the 17th hole. But let’s stand back and think logically for a moment - is it really right that a player can lose everything he has worked for all week on the 71st hole of a tournament, a par-three which is no more than a flick with a nine-iron? In 2007, the year Mickelson won, Sean O’Hair did exactly that, running up a quadruple bogey seven at the 17th hole on the final day, thereby ruining his chances.

Keep the faith

Look at the list of winners of The Players in recent years. Sure, Mickelson is in there, as is Sergio Garcia. But more often than not this is a venue that has rewarded the mid-table plodders.

Tim Clark (2010), Fred Funk (2005), Stephen Ames (2006) and KJ Choi (2011) have all won at TPC Sawgrass and the search for 2013’s winner must begin with a look at players of that ilk.

Matt Kuchar fits the bill perfectly.  He won The Players last year and could win again this year, except that no player has ever won this event in successive years. But there are plenty of others who could prevail – take your pick of one from 50. Better still, place your faith (and money) on someone like Brandt Snedeker or DA Points to win, with Kevin Streelman and Bill Haas as good each-way bets.

• The Joy of Six: Click here to see who punters have latched onto at Sawgrass 

Lawrence Donegan is the Guardian’s former golf correspondent. He is also author of the acclaimed book, Four Iron in the Soul, based on his experiences caddying for tour pro Ross Drummond. In the 1980s he was a bassist for the Bluebells and Lloyd Cole And The Commotions, but we forgive him for Young At Heart because he’s such a sound lad. Follow him on Twitter here.

Matt Chapman | Chester Cup betting tips

There may be some Classic clues at Chester this week, but for many the May meeting is all about the ‘Cup’, that staying contest where they seem to go round in circles over and over again.

Such is the nature of the Roodeye, many consider it a sharp circuit, but former trainer Barry Hills, who used to do so well at Chester, has always insisted it is actually a galloping track.

Whatever your view, one thing for sure is that Chester Cups are not won by weak stayers – it’s a proper stamina test. And they have been landed by some fabulous performers, like Brown Jack, Attivo and Sea Pigeon.

Justification does not have the experience

The latter was a fine hurdler, and jumps horses have done particularly well over the years including recently, with the last three victors all fit from a National Hunt campaign, namely Mamlook, Overturn and Ile de Re, so that is certainly an angle to consider. So is the draw – outside boxes can score, but low numbers on a tight left-handed circuit are always going to be favoured.

Dougie Costello on Countrywide Flame and AP McCoy on Sportsmaster at Leopardstown last February

I’m not sure this year’s renewal is as tough as other recent runnings, and for me COUNTRYWIDE FLAME (7/2) just stands out. He’s fit from hurdling, is a proven staying winner round Chester and is drawn low. Simenon was rated 147 for his last jumps run whereas Countrywide Flame was 168! Yet on the Flat Countrywide Flame gets a stone and 1lb!

Of the big dangers, Simenon (11/1), Ile de Re (16/1) and Tominator (9/1) are all drawn out wide, while I’m not sure Justification (5/1) has the experience for a race like this, although of course he has to be respected as an unexposed horse trained by Aidan O’Brien and ridden by former Champion jockey Ryan Moore.

Countrywide Flame might actually improve

The draw has also mucked up Suraj (22/1), who is a horse liked by Michael Bell, and Olympiad (11/1) for the master of Rosewell, Dermot Weld.

Tactically, Countrywide Flame can go from the front or from behind, and if the rain comes he won’t be affected as well. Added to that, he’s a Triumph Hurdle winner so he might actually improve for this trip on the level.

Although I wish he had run a little better at Aintree last time, the more I think about it the more Countrywide Flame is going to run huge, and all I hope is that Paddy Power can hear me. Fingers crossed for a big, big run and nice return. Yeeehaaa!

• Agree with Matt Chapman? Dive into the latest betting on the Chester Cup here
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Expert football pundit and analyst Andy Gray is all geared up for Super Sunday and hasn’t pulled any punches regarding the Merseyside Derby. He’s joined the Paddy Power Blog team to give his insight on Sunday’s games.

Andy Gray’s Super Sunday double
Both games to finish 1-1: 48/1

Liverpool v Everton, Sky Sports 1, 1.30pm

Even money on Liverpool is a pretty good bet and plenty of fans will fancy getting on that. But a draw might be a smarter bet at 5/2.

Although Liverpool knocked six past Newcastle last week without Luis Suarez, Newcastle were a very very poor side. Everton are much better than that. Defensively they are sound, difficult to play against, and without Suarez, Liverpool will find it hard to break the Toffees down.

Everton’s sole aim at the moment is to stay above Liverpool and the best thing they can do at the weekend is to avoid getting beat. If you asked David Moyes right now would you take a draw at Anfield, he’ll snap your hand off. It will be a tough game, a classic derby game, but it won’t provide four or five goals. It will be a tight Merseyside derby.

A low scoring draw like 1-1 at 6/1 is a decent shout.

•  Betting: Liverpool v Everton

Manchester United v Chelsea, 4.00pm

When Manchester United went to the Emirates last week everyone wanted to know what shape the Champions would be in. If there was ever going to be a surprise that was going to be it. Sir Alex Ferguson would have had his players back training this week, the celebrations are over and Ferguson will want to finish the season strongly. They won’t want to get beaten at home by Chelsea, the rivalry is too strong for that. Chelsea’s home form is very good at the moment, their away form is not fantastic but it is alright.

The cup tie was a fabulous cup tie. United looked like they were going to blow Chelsea away in the first half but then Rafa Benitez made a few changes and brought some of his talented players on. They could have won it in the end. That was a wonderful tie and gives us a barometer to measure this game on.

Like the Merseyside Derby they could share the points in this one. Manchester United won’t consider a draw that bad a result having won the league and Chelsea taking a point from Old Trafford is a pretty good return. Another 1-1 at 6/1 could be the way to go.

• Betting: Manchester United v Chelsea

Expert football pundit and analyst Andy Gray is hoping to make a few bob for a summer holiday before the season ends. He’s joined the Paddy Power Blog team to give his insight on Saturday’s crunch Premier League fixtures on the box with the race for fourth hotting up.

QPR v Arsenal, ESPN, 5.15pm

People say when you are relegated your team will be more relaxed but you’re not. You’re flat more than anything. Because you know the following season you won’t be playing these teams, you’ll be playing teams in the Championship and having to watch the top-flight from afar. It’s very difficult to get yourself up for the game.

Arsenal aren’t in great form and blowing teams away but they are getting great results. The result at Fulham, against 10 men, they really chiselled it out. It wasn’t a brilliant performance but they did what they needed to in order to get three points. That is what they have done since beating Bayern Munich. They haven’t lost a game and only dropped points twice. This might not be a classic performance from Arsenal but they are good enough to beat QPR. They could keep them out and knock two or three past Rangers.

The Gunners to win by two or more goals at 11/10 is the bet.

• Betting: QPR v Arsenal

• See who Andy Gray is tipping on Super Sunday here

As Rebecca Black correctly points out ‘It’s Friday, Friday, got to get down on Friday’. That’s all well and good but before we ‘get down’ @AmyEustace is getting her claws out and ripping into ‘boring boring’ Everton…

The Merseyside Derby is worth its attendance in column inches. Generally the majority of those inches are taken up by the red half of Liverpool, probably the most infuriatingly gaffe-prone club in the world. Meanwhile, in the blue corner, Everton drift along quietly; bothering no one, impressing just about everyone. Aren’t they just smashing?

I’ve always had a lot of respect for Everton, until I stopped and wondered why that was. It was at that point that I realised: as it happens, they’re actually incredibly boring.

Everton are one of those clubs; those piddly, mid-table clubs that win the hearts and minds of neutrals because they consistently punch above their weight, commit a case or two of top-four slaying and haunt the corridors of

European qualification. Under David Moyes, they are effective, inoffensive (save for Marouane Fellaini’s eyebrow situation) and lauded for their cost efficiency. They are, simply put, the kind of club that are always there-or-thereabouts, which is precisely my problem.

Consistency and thriftiness are such rare commodities in the Premier League these days that you can understand where the Everton plaudits are coming from.  Annoyingly, though, the same familiar old praise has been churned out in every Moyesian narrative of the past three or four years.

David Moyes himself, I imagine, is a decent chap and all that, but he’s also one of the most mind-numbingly frustrating men in football. He doesn’t wage war with the media, or fellow managers. He occasionally gets a bee in his bonnet over refereeing decisions, but apart from that, he rarely has anything controversial or groundbreaking to say. He’s respectable, yes, but he’s the kind of guy who probably eats a bowl of muesli for breakfast. And likes it.

MUESLI FOR MOYES: And he probably loves it

Everton are absurdly predictable. They have finished between 5^th and 8^th for all of the past six seasons, and look set to finish in that bracket this year as well. Though they, like their Merseyside neighbours, have fallen foul of City and Spurs’ top four ascension, they still feature heavily year after year in the race for fourth storyline, or at least the prize everyone’s really after – Europa League qualification. Consistent? Absolutely. But consistently average.

Competing with clubs far more financially flush than themselves is certainly something to be proud of, but aside from a fourth place finish in 2005 and an FA Cup final berth in 2009, David Moyes has achieved absolute diddly squat with the Toffees in his 10 years at Goodison. LMA awards abound, but when his tenure boils down to winning nothing, but doing it on the cheap, what really makes him so great?

Essentially, while Spurs are shopping in Tesco and City are shopping in Marks and Spencers, Moyes has cottoned onto the trade secret that Morrisons is just as good, only less likely to break Everton’s already fairly broken bank .

He has cracked into varied markets and unearthed some decent talents, scooping Belgian winger Kevin Mirallas from relative obscurity in Greece. Nikica Jelavic was even good, for a little while, although now he gets a kind of bewildered look in front of goal, similar to that which I presume Fellaini gets when he sees a pair of scissors.

What is David’s dream?

If the Scot has detractors, I’ve yet to meet any – at least ones who aren’t of the red persuasion. Everyone else seems to prescribe to Moyes’ solid-as-a-rock image. He has proved himself competent, but not excellent, and while Everton fans will probably lose sleep over his stalled contract negotiations, it seems like he’s building something there. What I can’t really figure out is what he’s supposed to be building.

Breaking into the top four, as City and Spurs have demonstrated, takes a great deal of money and an ample supply of luck; two things which Everton have never truly been in great supply. A cup wouldn’t go amiss, but Moyes hasn’t exactly chucked the kitchen sink at those competitions, suggesting that maybe he’s more motivated by settling in his sixty point comfort zone in the league. Are Everton actually going anywhere, or just treading the same old trail between good and great that contains them just below the top four waterline?

This weekend’s derby will be a good indicator. It’s 14 years since Everton have won at Anfield. Their away form has been poor this term overall, with just four wins as visitors all season. Liverpool will be without Suarez, whose performances in previous derbies will most likely have given Phil Jagielka and Sylvain Distin headaches (that’s without biting anyone), but that didn’t seem to bother them much in Newcastle last week, where they won 6-0. If Liverpool’s win-one-lose-one season formula applies here, Everton could steal the victory and earn an important three points in the fight to keep their heads above their local rivals for a second consecutive season.

Merseyside Derbies, whatever the context, are always intense, hardboiled affairs. The city truly loves its football, and while Everton have one-upped their neighbours in terms of bragging rights lately, right now they seem to lack the ambition that keeps Liverpool fighting tooth (ahem) and nail for something better. This could be their best chance at snatching superiority and making a real statement for intent. The crown is there for the taking; it’s just a question of whether Everton, and Moyes especially, have the brass nerve to grab it.

• Can Everton take their chance of Merseyside dominance? Find all the odds here
  

Hats off to American sport

NBA star Jason Collins stunned and impressed the sports world this week by becoming the first from America’s top four men’s professional sports to come out as gay. Not usually a sport to be ahead of the social curve, soccer in America has already had its first openly gay player in former Leeds United player Robbie Rogers. Rogers quit the game that had ‘hid his secret’ after announcing his sexuality two months ago, but trained with L.A. Galaxy on Tuesday, with Galaxy coach Bruce Arena claiming that the MLS ‘is a progressive league’.

On top of that, as if everyone wasn’t deeply in love with Germany already, Angela Merkel and Bayern Munich president Uli Hoeness both spoke in strong support of any closeted German footballers at a conference this week, with Merkel assuring them that they have ‘nothing to fear’.

Friday’s fuzzy feeling

While we’re at it on the MLS and things that make you go all fuzzy inside, Portland Timbers held an exhibition match this week…for an 8 year old cancer patient. 3,000 supporters showed up to watch Atticus Lane-Dupree and his team of kids take on the MLS side, in which he scored the winning goal, in a match specially arranged by Make A Wish Oregon.

An audience with the Pope

Javier Zanetti, Inter legend and current captain (at the whopping age of 39), met the only slightly older Pope Francis I last week. The new Pontiff is the first to hail from Zanetti’s home country of Argentina, but it doesn’t seem to be working in the favour of footballers from his homeland. He couldn’t lend the power of the Holy Spirit to Lionel Messi for the evening on Wednesday, and when Zanetti played his first game after visiting the new pope last weekend, he was stretchered off the pitch with a ruptured Achillies tendon.

Asked if he could persuade Francis I to support Inter, Zanetti diplomatically replied, “No, the Pope cheers only for a better world.” I have it on good authority that he actually supports his local club, San Lorenzo, but since Zanetti has had a bad week I suppose we’ll let that glaring cliché slide for now.

Twitter anarchist @TheBig_Sam recalls a sojourn to the French Riviera which is a warning for beleaguered Newcastle United…

Last July, the League Managers’ Association treated some of Britain’s finest, most decorated coaches to an all-expenses-paid trip to the dazzling French town of Juan-les-Pins. This sun-drenched jaunt was both a reward, and an homage, to the outstanding work carried out by these fabled LMA members over the course of the previous season. It goes without saying that Big Sam’s name sat proudly at the top of the list of invites; I was even named as lead traveller on the Easy Jet booking.

Joining me in paradise was David Moyes, Roy Hodgson, Alan Pardew and Dave Bassett. Dave, it has to be said, did nothing of real note in the 2011-12 season. If we’re being brutally honest, he’s done nowt post-9/11. He’s not particularly popular within the LMA either, due to his incessant habit of trying to sell copper to every person he talks to. He was, however, responsible for finding the deal on that Secret Escapes website, so we had no choice but to let him come along, unfortunately.

Unsurprisingly, the holiday was glorious. Over the course of four incredible days and filth-soaked nights, we sang, danced, drank, laughed, loved and learned. We splashed amongst the creamy surf by day, like a gaggle of giddy Hollyoaks whores; basking in the glow of our own hedonistic sensibilities. Once the sun had been supplanted by the moon, the evenings were filled with excess and debauchery. We hit the town, snaring more muff than a rogue gynaecologist.

A night of mayhem and pool with the two Daves

One night in particular was complete and utter mayhem. It began with us setting fire to a small gourmet coffee shop, before slaughtering a pig in front of a screaming French family. Later in the evening, Hodgson, still high on the fumes of his appointment as England manager, stripped off in a bar, draped himself over a pool table, and placed each member of his junk squad into three separate pockets. Just mull over that for a second; his plonker, and both testes, plopped neatly into THREE SEPARATE POCKETS. I still don’t know how he did it. Moyesy was shooting some 9-ball at the time and, ever the professional, carried on playing. He was clearly put off, though.

NONE OF A KIND: Dave Bassett, Sir NBS, Mr Roy Hodgson, Alan Pardew and David Moyes

The next morning, after barely a few hours of sleep, we reconvened by the pool, to sooth our aching hangovers, and recalled with laughter each disgusting incident that occurred the night before. As the afternoon heat took hold, we settled in for a lazy day of recovery. Roy poured himself snugly into a hammock, with a copy of ‘The Life and Opinions of Tristram Shandy, Gentleman’, whilst I lay on a nearby sun-lounger, sipping on a Peartini and inviting the scorching rays of the sun to lay upon my golden body.

As my skin roasted to sorrel-hued perfection, I gazed over at the two Daves with a smile (we’d decided to refer to Moyes and Bassett collectively as the two Daves; it was Big Sam, in fact, that coined the term, which, in turn, saw me rewarded with my own holiday nickname – Funny Sam). As they waded playfully in the pool, I felt an invigorating shower of pride fall upon me like poignant rain. These were my guys. Sure, none of us had ever won a major trophy, and we’d all been sacked more times than Rome, but for other, more subtle reasons, we truly were the cream of the crop. These reasons are simply too numerous to list, and if you can’t come up with them yourself, then you’re just a queer, quite frankly.

Anyway, in the midst of this luscious tranquillity  it suddenly occurred to me that our troop was one less than it should have been; Pardew was missing. Towards the end of the previous night, we decided to hit the Eden Casino in town. We all felt we were on a bit of a roll after a sensational visit to a local bath-house, and wanted to see just how far we could push this winning streak. Alan, however, refused to entertain the notion. “I’m not going into a casino,” he said, anxiously. “No way,” he continued. “Well, maybe just for an hou… NO! No I won’t. I can’t. I shouldn’t. Should I? NO!! I mustn’t. I just… I… no, not ever. Never. I MUST SURVIVE!”

Alan Pardew’s French dream

As the rest of us stood in silent puzzlement, Pardew collected his thoughts, laughed nervously and said, “I’ll resist this place until I fancy managing a French club, eh?” before wishing us well, and going on his way. We had no idea what caused this reaction, but before Pardew had even walked out of sight,a chest-thumping Hodgson was already at the entrance of the casino, with a bare breast in his mouth. The next stage of anarchy had most certainly begun.

Alan never entered my mind again that night, and his very existence continued to elude me until that moment by the swimming pool. As if by some form of coincidental voodoo, he sauntered around the corner; sun-burnt, half-naked and surrounded by a bevy of beautiful women. “There’s the lads!” he shouted, with a smile. “I’m the king of the Premier League, that’s who” he added, bizarrely  before leaping into the pool, dragging his conquests with him. As he looked at me and winked, his cockiness troubled me. I watched as he pranced around the pool with his scantily-clad entourage, popping a pair of Ray-Bans on his already-flaking face. “What do I always say boys?” he roared, with a smirk. “You can never surround yourself with too many French tarts.”

Fast-forward 10 months, and I wonder if Alan Pardew still believes in such a flimsy slogan.

As he prepares to bring his cluster of shell-shocked nancy boys to Big Sam’s Upton Park fortress this weekend, it would be understandable if he had become submerged in a thick, gloopy cocoon of xenophobic regret. After finishing in fifth place last season, and thus earning himself a long-term contract that ensures we’ll all be wearing flying f**king space boots by the time it’s finished, Pardew finds himself just five points above the relegation zone. Last week’s mauling at the hands of Liverpool came hot on the heels of another St James’ Park disaster against bitter rivals, Sunderland. The vultures are circling.

I see warriors like Nolan and Carroll in my dressing room

Was last season a fluke? Is he now levelling out to betray his true abilities as a manager? Is he dying? Who knows exactly why Pardew and Newcastle have slumped so badly this season. What is clear, however, is that when you are going into battle, you want to have the right sort of soldiers by your side. I look at my dressing room, and see warriors like Nolan, Carroll and Reid. Alan looks at his lot and sees the camp, flimsy supporting cast of an Audrey Tautou romcom. I’ve tried many times in the past to warn him about buying lightweight Europeans, who are ill-equipped for the bone-shattering clatter of English football. He never listens, though; he just turns the conversation back to his fifth-place finish, and shows me a secret scrapbook, filled with pictures of celebrity genitals he claims to have seen. His head has gone forever, I fear.

As I see him on the touchline this Saturday, I’ll smile fondly as I remember our time together in the French Rivera. Then, as I watch my group of grit-encrusted British bulldogs tear the last few shreds of flayed Geordie skin from his team’s decaying body – pushing them further towards the drop – I’ll shake my head ruefully at a man who has placed his destiny in the hands of dispassionate, lifeless foreigners. My local butcher, Geoff has done exactly the same thing as it happens, by hiring those two eastern-European cretins. He didn’t heed my warning either. Sometimes I genuinely think I’m the only man in football who can still see the bigger picture.

Agree with Not Big Sam? 

• Get the latest odds on West Ham v Newcastle this weekend in the Premier League right here.
• Read more from Not Big Sam on Jessica Ennis, Rafa, Aston Villa and more, over here.

Not Big Sam is a parody account on Twitter which can be found here. It is in no way related to Sam Neill, Sam Adams, Sam Allardyce or Sam Fox.

Spanish football expert and author of Barca, Graham Hunter, addresses the big questions for the Paddy Power Blog after Barcelona’s big defeat to Bayern Munich.

The two questions I’ve most-often been asked since the Champions League semi-final demolition of Spain’s representatives by the physique and technique of the Bundesliga are:

• “Is this a total power-shift in European football?”
• “What the hell do Bayern need Pep Guardiola for? I bet he wishes the season hadn’t gone like this.”

The latter idea shows how short some memories are or, at least, how some people simply judge on what they last saw rather than delving deeper into a subject.

Nobody of sane mind would ignore the brutal way in which Barcelona’s current deficiencies were exposed by the Bavarians, nor can there be anything other than admiration for the relentless way in which Jupp Heynckes’ team has pursued what may, surprisingly, become the first treble in their remarkable history.

With all due respect to Dortmund, who will traipse in second to Bayern in the Bundesliga and who gave up their German Cup defence to the same team, it is the AllianzArena club which is world number one.

No question so, having made that clear let’s not forget that it’s only 12 short months since Bayern felt exactly like Barcelona do right now.

Just 12 months since a Bavarian disaster

They lost the German title to Dortmund by 11 points, calamitously failed to put Chelsea to bed in the Champions League final and blew the German Cup final 5-2 to Jurgen Klopp’s side, despite Martio Gotze not playing and Roman Weidenfeller needing to be substituted after half an hour.

That night Bayern used Neuer, Lahm, Alaba, Boateng, Schweinsteiger, Ribéry, Robben, Gómez, Thomas Muller plus the currently injured Toni Kroos and Holger Badstuber. Most of the troops who just trod all over Barcelona.

In Bavaria the season was seen as something approaching a disaster, certainly deeply humiliating. Just 12 months ago. Meanwhile, Dortmund had played like dumplings in Europe. Bottom of their group, five points behind third-placed Olympiakos, they’d been beaten home and away by Marseille, mustering only four points and conceding 12 goals in a group Arsenal won.

I’d wager that nobody of any vision or sense condemned either of the Bundesliga’s big two as “finished”, or believed that those events signalled an end to the general rise and rise of German football.

PUZZLING TIMES: Do Barca need Neymar? Losing Gotze is a huge Dortmund blow. Pep was hired for repeated success at Bayern. Barca have suffered badly without the likes of ironman Carles Puyol

Four points for the dim-of-wit…

Thus it’s time, despite the brutality of the results for Barcelona and Real Madrid, to make sure that any conclusions drawn about Barcelona this week are reliable rather than rabid.

1. It’s at least relevant contextually that in Carles Puyol, Javier Mascherano, (Jordi Alba) and Eric Abidal, Barcelona were missing four world-class defensive footballers who, if fit, would at minimum added power, experience, pace and aggression to the woeful work which brought them a seven-goal aggregate defeat.
2. The world’s greatest footballer was as good as absent from all 180 minutes of the matches.
3. Sergio Busquets may not be to everyone’s tastes but when he plays well, Barcelona rock. Like Messi, also because of injury, he was as good as absent from the tie.
4. Tito Vilanova, a first-year rookie who has just returned from a near three-month battle against cancer made a number of downright weird decisions which analysis of the cataclysmically bad defeat begs for more information.

Now, wait, I know that the short-of-attention and the dim-of-wit will already be misinterpreting all this and getting ready to tweet in rage. So let’s recap.
Bayern were superb. Bayern are currently much more powerful, quick and competitive than the Spanish champions-elect.

The seven-goal margin didn’t flatter them. But if people want to rip Barça’s current squad and their likely future to shreds then a touch of restraint, context and caution are needed.

I know what you bought last summer

Bayern bought Dante, Mandzukic and Javi Martinez last summer and radically strengthened themselves. This route is available to Barcelona. With a proper centre-half added, with height introduced to one of the full-back positions, an aggressive, hard-working, top-class centre forward and the majority of the current squad fully fit Barcelona will be, at least, competitive again and contenders to not only give Bayern or Dortmund a decent game but to win the Champions League next May.

However, here are the trends which are more persuasive, more influential. Bayern’s strategy and intelligence, to me, are very reminiscent of the brilliant building of Barcelona from 2003 onwards when the Joan Laporta era, even with the odd blip, returned flair, power, success and thrills to the Camp Nou. There is a philosophy, there is ambition, there is consistency and both transfer records and wage structures are being broken.

They have seriously damaged Dortmund by snaffling Gotze and if they add Robert Lewandowski too it’s a huge double whammy. Pep Guardiola was hired not to have a decent season in 2013/14 or to fight off Dortmund. No, the Catalan has been put on the staff in order to try to increase the chances that Bayern repeatedly win the Champions League and become Europe’s dominant force for a handful of years. The fact that he’s inheriting a powerful side is unquestionably in his favour — not an obstacle.

Have Barca not spotted their problems?

At Barcelona you get a strong impression that notable problems: player fatigue, the absence of height, power and pace and the absolute glaring requirement for one, perhaps two aerially excellent defenders, are being ignored. Or worse, is it feasible they haven’t been identified?

Moreover the determination to prioritise the purchase of Neymar appears blind to the fact that however good the Brazilian may be he’s far from anything like the most important kind of signing Barca need to make right now.

Also, it’s a signing which has the hallmarks of something which could undermine Leo Messi’s sense of well-being at the Camp Nou.

Barcelona took a right hook to the jaw this week. It landed because they’ve dropped their guard and been leading with their chin. But so long as the decision-making process at the Catalan club now starts to match the quality of thinking in Bavaria it’s only a knockdown, not a knockout.

• Read football insight with real passion — more from Graham Hunter on the Paddy Power Blog
• Mischief makers: Have you read Guido Fawkes, Not Big Sam, FourFourTom, Joey Barton and Paul Galvin yet?

Who’s your money on for the Champions League Final then? >Get the latest odds right here<