Spanish football expert and author of Barca, Graham Hunter, addresses the big questions for the Paddy Power Blog after Barcelona’s big defeat to Bayern Munich.

The two questions I’ve most-often been asked since the Champions League semi-final demolition of Spain’s representatives by the physique and technique of the Bundesliga are:

• “Is this a total power-shift in European football?”
• “What the hell do Bayern need Pep Guardiola for? I bet he wishes the season hadn’t gone like this.”

The latter idea shows how short some memories are or, at least, how some people simply judge on what they last saw rather than delving deeper into a subject.

Nobody of sane mind would ignore the brutal way in which Barcelona’s current deficiencies were exposed by the Bavarians, nor can there be anything other than admiration for the relentless way in which Jupp Heynckes’ team has pursued what may, surprisingly, become the first treble in their remarkable history.

With all due respect to Dortmund, who will traipse in second to Bayern in the Bundesliga and who gave up their German Cup defence to the same team, it is the AllianzArena club which is world number one.

No question so, having made that clear let’s not forget that it’s only 12 short months since Bayern felt exactly like Barcelona do right now.

Just 12 months since a Bavarian disaster

They lost the German title to Dortmund by 11 points, calamitously failed to put Chelsea to bed in the Champions League final and blew the German Cup final 5-2 to Jurgen Klopp’s side, despite Martio Gotze not playing and Roman Weidenfeller needing to be substituted after half an hour.

That night Bayern used Neuer, Lahm, Alaba, Boateng, Schweinsteiger, Ribéry, Robben, Gómez, Thomas Muller plus the currently injured Toni Kroos and Holger Badstuber. Most of the troops who just trod all over Barcelona.

In Bavaria the season was seen as something approaching a disaster, certainly deeply humiliating. Just 12 months ago. Meanwhile, Dortmund had played like dumplings in Europe. Bottom of their group, five points behind third-placed Olympiakos, they’d been beaten home and away by Marseille, mustering only four points and conceding 12 goals in a group Arsenal won.

I’d wager that nobody of any vision or sense condemned either of the Bundesliga’s big two as “finished”, or believed that those events signalled an end to the general rise and rise of German football.

PUZZLING TIMES: Do Barca need Neymar? Losing Gotze is a huge Dortmund blow. Pep was hired for repeated success at Bayern. Barca have suffered badly without the likes of ironman Carles Puyol

Four points for the dim-of-wit…

Thus it’s time, despite the brutality of the results for Barcelona and Real Madrid, to make sure that any conclusions drawn about Barcelona this week are reliable rather than rabid.

1. It’s at least relevant contextually that in Carles Puyol, Javier Mascherano, (Jordi Alba) and Eric Abidal, Barcelona were missing four world-class defensive footballers who, if fit, would at minimum added power, experience, pace and aggression to the woeful work which brought them a seven-goal aggregate defeat.
2. The world’s greatest footballer was as good as absent from all 180 minutes of the matches.
3. Sergio Busquets may not be to everyone’s tastes but when he plays well, Barcelona rock. Like Messi, also because of injury, he was as good as absent from the tie.
4. Tito Vilanova, a first-year rookie who has just returned from a near three-month battle against cancer made a number of downright weird decisions which analysis of the cataclysmically bad defeat begs for more information.

Now, wait, I know that the short-of-attention and the dim-of-wit will already be misinterpreting all this and getting ready to tweet in rage. So let’s recap.
Bayern were superb. Bayern are currently much more powerful, quick and competitive than the Spanish champions-elect.

The seven-goal margin didn’t flatter them. But if people want to rip Barça’s current squad and their likely future to shreds then a touch of restraint, context and caution are needed.

I know what you bought last summer

Bayern bought Dante, Mandzukic and Javi Martinez last summer and radically strengthened themselves. This route is available to Barcelona. With a proper centre-half added, with height introduced to one of the full-back positions, an aggressive, hard-working, top-class centre forward and the majority of the current squad fully fit Barcelona will be, at least, competitive again and contenders to not only give Bayern or Dortmund a decent game but to win the Champions League next May.

However, here are the trends which are more persuasive, more influential. Bayern’s strategy and intelligence, to me, are very reminiscent of the brilliant building of Barcelona from 2003 onwards when the Joan Laporta era, even with the odd blip, returned flair, power, success and thrills to the Camp Nou. There is a philosophy, there is ambition, there is consistency and both transfer records and wage structures are being broken.

They have seriously damaged Dortmund by snaffling Gotze and if they add Robert Lewandowski too it’s a huge double whammy. Pep Guardiola was hired not to have a decent season in 2013/14 or to fight off Dortmund. No, the Catalan has been put on the staff in order to try to increase the chances that Bayern repeatedly win the Champions League and become Europe’s dominant force for a handful of years. The fact that he’s inheriting a powerful side is unquestionably in his favour — not an obstacle.

Have Barca not spotted their problems?

At Barcelona you get a strong impression that notable problems: player fatigue, the absence of height, power and pace and the absolute glaring requirement for one, perhaps two aerially excellent defenders, are being ignored. Or worse, is it feasible they haven’t been identified?

Moreover the determination to prioritise the purchase of Neymar appears blind to the fact that however good the Brazilian may be he’s far from anything like the most important kind of signing Barca need to make right now.

Also, it’s a signing which has the hallmarks of something which could undermine Leo Messi’s sense of well-being at the Camp Nou.

Barcelona took a right hook to the jaw this week. It landed because they’ve dropped their guard and been leading with their chin. But so long as the decision-making process at the Catalan club now starts to match the quality of thinking in Bavaria it’s only a knockdown, not a knockout.

• Read football insight with real passion — more from Graham Hunter on the Paddy Power Blog
• Mischief makers: Have you read Guido Fawkes, Not Big Sam, FourFourTom, Joey Barton and Paul Galvin yet?

Who’s your money on for the Champions League Final then? >Get the latest odds right here<

European football expert Graham Hunter (@bumpergraham) is predicting Real Madrid’s experience and composure will prove key in getting a positive result in tonight’s Champions League semi-final with Borussia Dortmund in Germany.

If it’s not to be a complete Bundesliga domination of this week’s Champions League semi finals then, ironically, Real Madrid might depend on a German to restore some La Liga pride.

Mesut Ozil has become a world class footballer under Jose Mourinho. He arrived in Spain as a young man of patent talent but the physical training at Madrid has not only completely altered his stamina (no longer is it a trademark that he’s subbed after 70 minutes) but given him significantly more top-body strength with which to hold off challenges and to buy himself space.

But, more than that, this game is a local derby against ‘the enemy’ for him. Born 35 minutes away from the Dortmund’s amazing Signal Iduna Park and originally a Schalke 04 youth talent, Ozil has always loved a tussle with the ScharzGelb (Black and Yellow).

How Ozil became the key man

Perhaps there’s something Pavlovian about the German midfielder’s response to facing Dortmund but having shone against them domestically for Schalke and Bremen, Özil was then probably the stand-out performer in the two Group D games between the sides earlier this season.

Away from home,  admittedly in defeat,  his was the clever lofted assist-pass which helped Cristiano Ronaldo score almost instantly after going behind to Robert Lewandowski’s opener.

In the return match it was the Real Madrid No 10 whose left-footed cross dropped perfectly for Pepe to head home the first equaliser and, again, it was Özil who squared the game in the last seconds thanks to a daring free kick which slid in at Roman Weidenfeller’s left hand post.

Again on the positive side for the reigning Spanish champions Ronaldo is on the most powerful, convincing and enjoyable form of his entire career. Beyond all the normal talent, power, height, free kicks, pace and heading ability there’s no missing the fact that since the Ballon D’Or went to Leo Messi in January the Portuguese has quietly got on with dominating Spanish football and putting himself in a position to rob Messi of the Champions League top scorer award for the first time in five seasons.

What’s more, he’s also a more complete team player than ever before. Previously there were uneven comparisons between Ronaldo and Messi in terms of goal assists but, again, CR7 has begun to close the gap and has been generous this season, in La Liga and the Champions League, in giving goals to Benzema, Higuain (who’ll start tonight) Ozil and Di Maria.

On that subject Mourinho will use Diego: Ramos, Pepe, Varane, Coentrao, Alonso, Khedira, Di Maria, Ozil, Ronaldo and Higuain tonight.

Pepe is the weak link

One man who’ll have to completely change his level of performance from the group games is Pepe. He gave away possession, allowed a shot to go right under his boot and was outjumped by Robert Lewandowski for three of the four goals in Group D which gave Jurgen Klopp’s team a win and a draw.

Important to Madrid in terms of height, power and pace Pepe is also a player who is notoriously capable of losing concentration and of losing his head. It will be a volatile atmosphere at Signal Iduna, Lewandowski says he’s fully fit and this is going to be a test for the Portugal international.

If he improves from his last two meetings with Dortmund and if Ozil and Ronaldo hit their marks then Madrid have the chance of taking a score draw back to Spain.

Dortmund merit respect for being quick, technical, smart, confident, well coached and terrifically well supported. However it’s possible that, tonight, experience and timing are slightly more in Madrid’s favour than a couple of months ago.

Malaga showed that Dortmund are vulnerable to the counter attack,  Mario Gotze’s transfer to Bayern being announced can’t help and, perhaps, the gap between the sides which was evident late last year has narrowed a little.

Betting: Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid

VIDEO: Watch for Graham Hunter’s tips on Dortmund v Real Madrid

European football expert and red-hot tipster Graham Hunter is predicting tonight’s Champions League semi-final between Bayern Munich and Barcelona to end all square.

{Find out Graham’s 12/1 tip by scrolling down and watching the video} 

There’s an old saying from the hard-boiled private detective fiction of  Raymond Chandler and his cronies which I love – “If you hear the sound of hooves coming, don’t look for zebras – it’ll be horses”.

Those writers used it to say ‘don’t look beyond the obvious suspect’ and perhaps it applies to Bayern v Barça tonight.

The Bavarians have stomped all over their domestic competition and gave Juve a slapping in the last round.

Barça are full of incognitos (is Busquets fully recovered from his groin strain? Is Messi properly fit for his explosive bursts of genius? Who will play alongside Piqué? Bartra? Abidal?) and they’ve played without their old intensity in the second half of this season.

So, perhaps it’s stupid to look for a zebra when we are going to see a horse?

Many of the shrewd bets must favour the home team. But I think there are some minor indications that the nag might be sporting one or two stripes tonight.

Barça haven’t lost in Germany for eleven years – five wins and three draws in that time.

Barça love to face teams who are going to give them a game – Philip Lahm’s words about going toe-to-toe with Tito Vilanova’s side will be very welcome. They get SO sick of having to unpick defences with ten men behind the ball all the time.

Teams who attack them give them spaces – and chances. If Messi is firing on all cylinders then, obviously, he’s the banker bet to exploit them.

However I like Pedro – quick, a deceptively good finisher and with a couple of recent big goals (against PSG and France) to his name. It was actually against this keeper, Manuel Neuer, he learned a big lesson. World Cup semi final 2010, through one on one and with Fernando Torres alone beside him Pedro tried to round the keeper, his studs slipped on the arid African pitch and the chance for 2-0 was gone. Coaches for Spain and then Pep Guardiola advised him to shoot hard, low and early in similar circumstances. He’s done it and perhaps he´ll come full circle tonight.

If you are betting in-play then watch Busquets. Against PSG, both games, he was wildly out of form and Barça were far the worse for it. If that groin strain has fully healed and he fires on all cylinders the Spanish league leaders function much better, simple as that. In fact if he does fire up, I’d back them not to lose. Vice versa too.

The ref? Viktor Kassai is a straight shooter. Barça won’t be looking to him for favours. But this is a guy who brings good memories for them – that 1-0 Spain v Germany World Cup semi final (no bookings and no reds in the entire match), a red card for Paul Pogba for stamping on Xavi’s ankle in that Spain 1-0 France match last month, the Champions League final of 2011 when he took an hour to book anyone and Barça’s 4-0 win over Milan this season when, again, only four bookings (one for Barça, Pedro).

To Kassai’s great credit he seems to blend southern and northern European reffing styles – a rarity.

A fine game, Bayern deserve to start favourites, both teams to score. Four goals shared. Enjoy.

• Betting: Bayern Munich v Barcelona
  

European football expert Graham Hunter explains that there are major concerns for Barcelona in their Champions League quarter-final, but why Cesc Fabregas should be backed to continue his red-hot form.

Right now everyone is waiting to see whether or not Leo Messi starts against PSG. Just for the moment I’m far more interested in another kind of weighting. Sometimes the force of pre-match opinion stems from unassailable facts and it’s true to say that, at the Camp Nou, and with two away goals, history favours FC Barcelona.

But there are major provisos.

The weighting, or handicapping, which the Champions League and the natural ageing process have introduced to this tie make it fascinating – and risky for the home team.

To explain. There have been times when Barcelona have not simply been divine to watch, they’ve been an absolute brute to play against.

Particularly during the heights of Pep Guardiola’s reign I loved the mixed zone after the match. You’d interview Barcelona’s opponents and, well before praising the Blaugrana, they’d explain to you what a horrible experience it was when you didn’t have a millisecond to think, not a blink of the eye to just ensure the ball was properly controlled.

Playing Barcelona was like trying to compose a classical symphony in a kids’ nursery – constant harassment, increasing irritability, total futility.

Not now. In each of the four seasons when Barça have won this competition they’ve conceded two goals or fewer across all four quarter-final and semi-final matches.

The two conceded at Parc des Princes indicates that, historically, if Barça ship even one more goal then they are in big trouble.

So, is there something to worry about? Yes. Here’s the weighting.

MASCHERANO AND PUYOL: Neither man will feature in the Nou Camp this evening

• Carles Puyol has always defied his lack of height, always brought that little bit of extra ‘the badge matters’ to Barça’s displays. But he’s out.
• Javier Mascherano is often, albeit not always, a useful deputy at centre back and was a star performer in the 4-0 win over AC Milan last time. He’s out.
• Tito Vilanova, just back from cancer treatment in New York, needs to choose between Marc Bartra, Alex Song, Adriano, Busquets and Uncle Tom Cobbley when he chooses Gerard Piqué’s playing partner.

Meanwhile, there’s no escaping that PSG not only possess players to attack the ball aerially with extreme skill and power, they can also call on a number of footballers who use the ball well when putting the ball into the penalty box.

Moreover, Barça’s other kryptonite, pace, is something which PSG have to a reasonable degree. Lucas, particularly, is blindingly quick and Ezequiel Lavezzi has more savvy about when to counter attack than he has blistering pace. But sometimes it’s all about the first few metres in your head, not your feet.

So while Barcelona are at home, have two away goals, possess a terrific Champions League record at the Camp Nou and can boast a handful of World Champions (Xavi, Iniesta, Pedro, Victor Valdés, Busquets, David Villa, Cesc Fabregas and Piqué) there are a couple of specifics in the PSG locker which alter the handicapping.

IF Messi doesn’t start, and he patently wants to given the extra training, extra physio and extra recuperation work he´s undertaken since last week, then Barça are reduced from, I’d still say, the best in the world to a very good team.

IF, into the bargain, PSG have one of those nights when the ball is used well and Alex, Thiago Silva and Zlatan keep winning it in the air then we could have quite a tie.

AB FAB: Cesc Fabregas is on a hot streak and is worth a few quid to score

To the meat.

Cesc Fabregas is, in my opinion, a streak scorer. Not prolific, prolific, but it´s the case that his five-a-side background has made him a very efficient, silky finisher.

And while he talks with a great deal of self-assurance, I’m of the opinion that his self belief fluctuates. Hence the reason he scores in bursts. Get one goal – four or five follow.

The stats tell the story. Four in four in August and September 20007, five in four in December and January 09/10, four in four during February and March 2010, five in four with Barça August and September 2011 then four in three across December and January 2012. Following his first hat trick and two assists at the weekend, back him to score and or assist tonight.

Having said that PSG looked capable of scoring again at the Camp Nou when Alex, Thiago Silva and Zlatan won the ball in the air from set-plays and open play. Lavezzi, too, will feed off the knockdowns the Swede will provide him. Perm through and pick one of them for a goal.

• Betting: Barcelona v PSG
  

Juventus v Bayern Munich

Juventus? They simply didn’t show up last week. But Antonio Conte has been firing his men up to fever pitch. He’s told them that Bayern Munich dived in the first tie, that Franz Beckenbuer insulted Gigi Buffon and that Juve embarrassed themselves.

Way to stoke up an atmosphere!

Bayern were limited in their Bundesliga title celebrations on Saturday but, even so, there is often a ‘hangover’. I take Juve to sneak a win, Vucnic to score and Spanish referee Velasco Carballo to be pushed into breaking his record of never having shown a red card in his 29 Uefa ties thus far.

• Betting: Juventus v Bayern Munich
  

European football expert Graham Hunter thinks Real Madrid will struggle without their most influential player, but they should still make the Champions League semi-finals.

Galatasaray v Real Madrid

Although there are some who, incorrectly and unfairly, judge him harshly because of his naked desire to win everything all the time and because his match-face shows every emotion in its starkest form (joy, frustration, anger, self recrimination and, yes, even arrogance) I’m a serious Cristiano Ronaldo fan.

He’s phenomenally gifted, he’s an utterly outstanding professional and off the pitch he’s both bright and articulate. There’s not a great deal more to ask for.

His goal-to-game ratio is redefining, exploding really, what we think the very best striker should be producing and were it not for Leo Messi we’d already be arguing where Ronaldo fits in the all-time pantheon.

As such, the Portuguese is Real Madrid’s most important player – at least when it comes to winning matches.

However he’s not the most important of José Mourinho’s squad when it comes to ensuring that Madrid don’t lose. That’s Xabi Alonso.

XABI ALONSO: Without him Jose Mourinho’s Real Madrid are disjointed

Particularly when Mourinho uses his preferred formation (preferred as Madrid coach at least) of 4-2-3-1 the importance of the two organising, distributing, defending midfielders who pair in front of the back four is enormous.

Moreover, Alonso is very good there. Without him Madrid consistently look like a puppet with one of its six strings cut – in motion, possibly entertaining, but disjointed.

Order diminishes, confidence drops, decision making becomes less clinical and the tempo often decreases.

He, Sergio Ramos and, quite possibly, Pepe are all going to miss out tonight at the Türk Telecom Arena and I think it’ll cost Madrid. I doubt it will cost them progression to the semi final but it might just cost them a win on the night.

Madrid’s stats against Turkish teams aren’t ample but it’s a fact that they’ve still to win against a Turkish side, Galatasaray or Besiktas, apart from in Spain.

Diego Lopez and Rafa Varane have been standouts in recent months but with a denuded back four (likely no Arbeloa, Ramos or Pepe) and with Alonso absent I think it’s reasonable to take Galatasaray to score – and why not Didier Drogba? So, Madrid to suffer, Madrid to go through, Ronaldo to score, Drogba to score and, I have a sneaking feeling, one of Diego Lopez’s more testing nights.

• Betting: Galatasaray v Real Madrid

Borussia Dortmund v Malaga

What of Málaga in Dortmund? Well, if you take mood to be as important an initial guide to their chances as the suspensions they suffered in the first leg then it’s decent news.

Most of the key players were rested in the 4-2 defeat at Real Sociedad at the weekend, man after man told me in the Mixed Zone last week after the 0-0 draw against the recently deposed German champions that they were 100% confident of getting a score draw at the Signal Iduna Park.

And one more little note about mood. It was very sad to hear of the death of Manuel Pellegrini’s father on Saturday. The Chilean hid the news from his players, coached the match, flew to Chile for the funeral and should be on the bench tonight. His players, and I mean this word, adore him. Their respect for him as a man and a coach is infinite. With what looks like a 30/70 chance of qualification in front of them their effort for Pellegrini will give them an extra jag.

But they’ll need it. Málaga, like Madrid, have an organising central midfielder, Manuel Iturra, and a centre-back, Weligton, suspended. Dortmund score heavily at home, should have won the first leg and have a superior squad. But  Málaga have only conceded 13 times in 27 Uefa matches and have seven clean sheets in their 12 Champions League outings this season.

IF, and I do mean IF there’s a major shock coming then I’d look to Roque Santa Cruz (a great record of wins and draws against Dortmund for Bayern Munich plus the winner at Signal Iduna back in September 2001) to nick a goal for Málaga. Referee Craig Thomson averages precisely four bookings per Champions League match and wouldn’t have a single red card in the competition had Alonso and Ramos not famously forced  orderings-off against Ajax to ‘clean’ their booking count two seasons ago.

Enjoy your football.

• Betting: Borussia Dortmund v Malaga
  

European football expert Graham Hunter previews tonight’s Champions League quarter final between moneybags PSG and runaway La Liga leaders Barcelona.

Champions League | PSG v Barcelona

It should be simple enough to predict Paris St Germain’s most likely avenues to score at home to FC Barcelona tonight.

In Thiago Silva (who scored a headed equaliser for Milan at the Camp Nou last season), Alex and Zlatan, Carlo Ancelotti’s side have three players perfectly able to take advantage of the fact that Barça have perpetually lost goals or goal assists to headers inside the box this season.

More specifically, the Spanish champions-elect consistently allow crosses too easily from their left back position and Dani Alves, who is having an absolutely exceptional season in an attacking sense, continually fails to order his centre halves to take a couple of steps towards the back post.

The Brazilian, instead, will dive into the penalty spot melee (usually to little effect given that he’s … little) and the crossed ball will drop to an opponent hovering or arriving at the back post to create or score a goal.

There has been a lot of delightful, Machiavellian ‘did he, didn’t he’ in the Spanish media this week about whether Jose Mourinho volunteered to supply Ancelotti with Real Madrid’s ‘golden’ scouting manual which over the last few weeks was sufficient to inspire Los Blancos to a 3-1 Camp Nou win and a 2-1 home victory in La Liga.

How to score against Barcelona

Lesson No 1: Punt the ball long from the edge of your own penalty box to a runner in the wide positions (Di Maria or Ronaldo for Madrid) Lavezzi or Lucas for PSG) and then support him more quickly than Barça get back for the perfect breakaway goal.

Lesson No 2:  exploit Barcelona’s aerial vulnerability.

Did the Special One send the document? ‘Oh yes he did … OH NO HE DIDN’T…’ that’s been the enjoyable tone over the last few days.

However even for a project in construction PSG must have scouts capable of doing their own homework and these conclusions won’t have been hard to draw.

In reality, the counter attack goal is just a version of what PSG inflicted on Valencia at the Mestalla in the last round. They could have won by five or six (had Lavezzi who is their top scorer in the Champions League not missed a hat-trick of chances) and they looked viciously dangerous. However, at home, PSG flirted with going out and Valencia ruled the night.

As for Barça if you favour them to win away then take into account that their record since 2006 reads –winners-last 16, semi final-winners-semi final-winners-semi final ….

The Hurt Locker

Losing 2-0 at Milan in the opening-leg of the last round hurt them terribly badly and I’d expect a higher tempo, physically more robust display tonight.

Good though PSG are on their day, and while they own players who threaten Barça’s specific weaknesses they don’t often encounter players of the calibre of Iniesta, Xavi, Villa, Messi and Alba. Messi has 50 goals and 15 assists in his last 50 Champions League appearances. I take him to add another of one or other (goal or assist) and Barça to get a 2-2 draw.

Those who follow such things might note that referee Wolfgang Stark has sent off a couple of Barça players (Saviola and Motta back in 2004 against Celtic) but he’s also red-carded three opponents Rab Douglas, Pepe and Alberto Aquilani and awarded Barça a penalty last time out in Milan.

Four of the seven times he’s reffed a Barça game have yielded a total of only 13 bookings total but Stark’s only time out with PSG the game held eight yellow cards. Make of that what you will. There’s a Parisian threat for Barça here, no doubt, but perhaps they know how to take the right result home this time?

• Betting: PSG v Barcelona 
• Graham Hunter: Bayern are chokers and here’s why Juventus will get a draw
  

Champions League: Barcelona v AC Milan

The cynics, perhaps let’s dub them the realists, will argue it’s all case of ‘too little too late’  for FC Barcelona with regard to putting AC Milan out of the Champions League.

For precisely the last two months there has been a drop in the intensity of Barça’s play, not just defensively with only a couple of clean sheets in that time, but the way in which they can put the pedal to the floor and tear even the best teams apart.

Last week, without a match, interim coach Jordi Roura mixed a little bit of time off with a double stint on Wednesday and pretty high-intensity work during the other training sessions.

This is the moment of the season when, since the beginning of the Guardiola era, the Blaugrana’s form begins to peak for the second time. There is a high priority put on having the turbo-chargers available in November and December, then again in March and April.

However this season the dip in late January, and particularly February, has seemed more pronounced and perhaps the surge will come too late for this tie – particularly taking into account the current scoreline.

Yet the players believe.

Around the training ground over the last five or six days there has been no slumped shoulders, plenty of positive words and two meetings when the coach, but particularly the senior players, confronted problems, solutions, tactics and general ideas of how to eliminate Milan.

But can Barça really shift from a low gear to the type of Formula 1 performance which can make Milan “fearful” as their legendary coach Arrigo Sacchi says must be the case if the home side is to have any chance?

At this stage over the last four seasons Barça have beaten Bayer Leverkusen 7-1, Arsenal 3-1, Stuttgart 4-0 and Lyon 5-2. If that level of performance is about to arrive then, added to the fact that they have distinctly the better XI, then the Catalans will progress. Anything less and the weight of history, no side with a two-goal deficit and no away goal has gone through, will bear down on them too heavily.

If Andres Iniesta scores any time in this match, Paddy Power will refund all losing First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer, Correct Score & Scorecast singles on the match.

• Betting: Barcelona v AC Milan 
• Graham Hunter on the Paddy Power Blog

[Scroll down to watch video]

1. It’s got something to do with a former favourite son at Anfield

IN THE THICK OF IT: Expect some heated exchanges from former Anfield hero Xabi Alonso

2. A little bit of this fella, of course

THE MAIN MAN: There’s only one reason Real Madrid forked out on Ronaldo

3. …and might well finish with these

ON THE SPOT: Let’s hope Manchester United have been practicing penalties. Real have…

Graham Hunter’s tip: Real Madrid to beat Manchester United on penalties @ 40/1 click here

The Champions League is back and Real Madrid take on Manchester United at the Bernabeu on Wednesday. Graham Hunter writes for the Paddy Power Blog on why United are going to find it hard to cope with former hero Cristiano Ronaldo

When Steve McManaman produced the name of Manchester United to face Real Madrid during the Champions League knockout round draw back in December there must have been many United fans who thought the Liverpool legend had done them the first favour of his career.

Not only were Spain’s champions languishing in third place in La Liga they immediately went out and lost 3-2 at Málaga to drop 16 points behind league leaders Barcelona.

The mighty Santiago Bernabéu stadium, which Sir Alex Ferguson’s team visit on Wednesday night for the third time under the Scot’s management, had been brewing its unhappiness

Against Espanyol the match-announcer, for the first time in the ‘Special’ One’s reign, didn’t read out the phrase “… and coach, José Mourinho” at the end of the team announcement.

Why? To avoid the booing, jeering and whistling which had been growing week by week.

When Mourinho’s name was re-introduced for the next home league game, Real Sociedad, it received easily the most hostile ‘bronca’ (abuse) of his reign.

Real Madrid were in disarray

Perhaps still more encouragingly for United aficionados, one of the biggest running themes in the never-ending Real Madrid soap opera was Cristiano Ronaldo’s ‘unhappiness’.

They would have easily been forgiven for thinking: ‘what better time to receive an old friend, applaud him for days of wine and roses and then spank his team’s backside?”

Ronaldo announced his nose was out of joint and that the club ‘knew why’ and he was hammered by Leo Messi in the Ballon D’Or voting having expected to win. Then came potentially the best news for United fans.

In short succession Ronaldo suffered a further twist to his troublesome right ankle, strained a leg muscle in the defeat to Granada and, most interestingly of all, had a massive blow up with Mourinho.

It came directly after the vital 2-0 home Copa del Rey win over Valencia in mid-January. Towards the end of the hard-fought victory where the visitors had scorned a hatful of chances to score, Mourinho was visibly unhappy with Ronaldo’s decision-making and positioning in the final few minutes. He shouted, he gesticulated, he returned to the dugout with steam emanating from both ears.

In the dressing room it was all off at Ludlow. Mourinho criticised Ronaldo’s work ethic, commitment to closing down the game at 2-0 and the fact that he hadn’t paid attention to the coach’s forcefully yelled instructions.

The player hit back with justified comments about the nerve it took to hammer him when he stepped up to support his beleaguered manager on every possible occasion – on the pitch, in the media and during some notable goal celebrations – when powerful journalists and growing number of fans were attacking him.

But however attractive all these details are to those at United who yearn to return to Wembley, scene of the club’s first European Cup in 1968 and a place which now needs some reparation after the most comprehensive defeat of Sir Alex’s entire 26-year reign, against Barcelona in 2011, the fact is that all that glitters is not gold.

Against this backdrop of confusion, aggression, doubt and a title weakly defended Ronaldo has been utterly and absolutely sublime. The worse things get, the better he performs.

In the 10 games since the Champions League draw was made in Nyon Ronaldo has scored 13 times, including three hat-tricks.

What is most admirable is that while others have let their form peak and trough like the graph on a lie detector in the manager’s office at a horsemeat plant, Ronaldo has always led from the front.

At Granada in a 1-0 defeat his team stunk the house out. But his work ethic and his attitude proved that he’s unwilling to accept the vagaries of form or fitness.  Even when literally nothing is going for him he’s still up for it.

For a player of that talent, wealth and achievement to be in a side so fractured that they barely even got one effort on goal against a team which was nearly relegated last season must have been frustrating beyond words.

But his attitude, play and goal record is extremely reminiscent of that 2007/8 season at United when he won the title, the Champions League, Ballon D’Or and FIFA World Player.

Ronaldo is carrying Madrid

Some months before Ronaldo banged out 42 goals during that amazing season Carlos Queiroz told a friend of mine that United planned to use Ronaldo as a central striker a great deal in the coming 12 months.

Partly because Sir Alex Ferguson and Queiroz thought he could become an effective new weapon, partly to free Wayne Rooney to play on the left but partly because ‘Cristiano needs to have the ceiling raised, he needs a challenge because he’s so, so talented that, otherwise, he’ll get bored or hit a comfort zone’.

It proved to be a dazzling idea. Ronaldo carried an ankle problem all that season, often phoned his friend and former fitness coach Walter Di Salvo to vent his frustration at having to carry an injury and at having to play ‘out of position’.

But adversity was his stimulus. The tougher the going, the more he produced.

So it is at the moment. His form is such that he’s carrying the team. No question.

His determination, his goals and his naked ambition to win Real Madrid the ‘Decima’ (their 10th Champions Cup) have converted the Bernabéu faithful, previously a little chilly and underwhelmed by his manner, into an adoring public.

His name is now, finally, chanted, the front cover of Marca proclaims him the new Alfredo Di Stefano, his overall team play is superior to that at United and the goal flow is prodigious.

The three which destroyed Sevilla at the weekend take him beyond the legendary Paco Gento (six European Cup winners’s medals) to sixth in Real Madrid’s all-time scoring list – after three and a half seasons!

He has 182 goals in 179 competitive matches and now only Hugo Sánchez, Ferenc Puskas, Santillana, Di Stéfano and Raúl are ahead of him – but nobody on that list has scored at a better goal per appearance rate.

‘The fact that the Bernabéu is finally singing my name, that the ‘feeling’ has changed is a dream come true for me’, Ronaldo told AS last week.

‘The support has taken note that I give body and soul for this club and the amount of affection and appreciation I now get on the street, at the games and from fans in the media touches me. I can really feel that the Bernabéu has taken me as one of ‘their own’ now.

‘It still surprises me that I was viewed and treated differently before because I’ve not changed. It’s just that more people have focussed on how much I give to the team, how determined I am to win the ‘Decima’ and set aside other, less important things.

‘I’m even noticing fewer insults and fewer chants of ‘Cristiano we hope you die’ at other grounds around the country. I can’t please all the people all the time – not even God manages that. It’s part of a big change since I told the President that I was unhappy here. I’m enjoying my football, I like playing with these team mates and I swear on my son’s life that when I was sad it was never, under any circumstances, to do with money.

‘As for what happened with the manager, the things which happen in the dressing room stay there. “It’s a personal matter which is now all sorted out – everything’s fine’.

As for the utter nonsense people used to trot out about Ronaldo not being a ‘big game’ player it’s worth noting that he’s made scoring against Barcelona a personal domain in recent Clásicos, he perpetually puts Atlético Madrid to the sword in derby matches, he hit two goals and an assist while Madrid were knocked out of the Champions League semi-final by Bayern Munich last season and this term he’s the competition’s leading scorer.

In a variety of interviews Ronaldo has made it clear that he thinks Madrid, pound for pound, are better than United but that they have to ‘go out and prove it’.

Fair point.

The loss of a world class keeper like Iker Casillas who has yet to taste defeat in four games against United, is a negative. But Diego López, signed from Sevilla, was once a very firm target for United themselves after playing them twice in the Champions League for Villarreal and not conceding a goal.

Equally, part of Ronaldo’s assertion may stem from his manager’s record against Sir Alex. Mourinho, with Porto, Chelsea and Inter has gone head to head with the United boss in 13 League, Champions League, Cup or League cup matches winning six, drawing five and losing only twice.

One key element for United, in this evenly balanced tie, is how they attack in Madrid. Any team, literally anyone, who is caught upfield and allows even this rather fractured version of Mourinho’s Madrid to break at speed will be punished.

Ronaldo, too, is at his absolute best when careering away upfield in a one v two or two v three battle just like 2007/8 at United.

If England’s champions-elect can defend, press and keep possession with calm and intelligence and not be caught on the counter then it’ll be over to Ronaldo to produce something special in order for Madrid to take an advantage to Manchester.

On his current form you might be wise not to bet against that happening.

Betting: Real Madrid v Manchester United
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Graham Hunter reveals the ripple effects caused by Pep Guardiola’s move to Bayern Munich

I don’t know of anyone who can prove Sir Isaac Newton was a Bayern Munich fan but I’m nearly sure the 18th century physicist had something like Pep Guardiola’s sudden decision to sign for the Bavarians in mind when he came up with this third law of motion; that for each and every action there will be an equal and opposite reaction.

Joy, bratwurst sandwiches, steins of strong lager and plans to dominate the Champions League forever in most of Bavaria.

Bitter tears, recriminations, thousand-yard stares and loud ‘why oh, oh, whys’ in Russian and Arabic haunting the Premier League.

That sort of thing.

So if Pep Guardiola (41) is the pebble which breaks the water’s surface and sends ripples spreading out in all directions — who all gets their feet wet?

BOO, HISS: Abramovich has been left with Rafa Benitez at Chelsea, but not for long

#1. What happens now at Chelesa with Rafa Benitez and will Abramovich leave?

You have to wonder whether comrade Abramovich bent a few solid gold teaspoons in impotent rage yesterday, pushed away the side plate of beluga caviar and kicked the cat?

The Russian’s desire to import Barça-style football to Stamford Bridge is well established and having failed to persuade Guardiola last May the door was left firmly open for the Catalan to step in, and earn wealth beyond any normal man’s dreams, from this summer onwards.

Rafa Benitez’s interim appointment until the end of this season spoke volumes about the Chelsea owner’s confidence that by buying diminutive, technically gifted players like Oscar, Hazard, Mata and, I hear, Isco in the next transfer market he could sway Guardiola.

Txiki Begiristain, now in charge of Manchester City’s football direction but once Guardiola’s boss at Barça also said “no” to Abramovich. That’s not a good indication of how much these smart, successful football philosophers trust Chelsea’s strategy and consistency under Abramovich’s rule.

Nor did Benitez pick a particularly good night for his team to draw 2-2 with relegation strugglers Southampton. Booed off the pitch after a performance which means the European Champions have now won just one of their seven home Premier League matches under the Spaniard can only have served to implant another thorn in Abramovich’s side.

If either the Russian wants shot of Benitez by the end of the season or if the former Real Madrid youth team coach gets the call to return to the Bernabéu then what is the Chelsea owner left with?

Carlo Ancelotti’s title win wasn’t sufficient to appease him, Roberto Di Matteo’s remarkable Champions League odyssey had a five month feel-good factor and now Guardiola has chosen a walk near the Black Forest ahead of walking down the King’s Road. (With apologies to all fans of Horst Jankowski and the mod band Squire)

Where does Abramovich turn? Is it feasible that with the fans booing the club for its treatment of Frank Lampard, for the sacking of Di Matteo, for the run of sterile home performances and now with the rejection of Guardiola stinging worse than a paper-cut the Russian billionaire might, just, start to feel his comittment to the club ebbing away?

CONTRACT TIME: Sergio Busquets could fancy a move north. And bring his pepper with him

#2. Who will be the first Barcelona player to move to Bayern?

Obviously, there were always going to be repercussions at Guardiola’s Alma Mater.

The first came for poor old Tito Vilanova on Wednesday night, after Barça’s 2-2 draw against 10-man Málaga, when his press conference was pretty much hijacked by Spanish, Catalan, Italian and German journalists. All wanted to ask him about his friend and former boss signing for the Bavarians more than about the surprise home draw in the Copa del Rey quarter final.

There wasn’t any doubting Vilanova’s sincerity when, in order, he stated that a) he hadn’t known anything about it despite having met Guardiola in New York last week b) he was utterly delighted that a force for good in football was returning to the top level of the European game and c) that Bayern appeared a smart choice for Pep given that it was one of the all-time great football clubs.

But it didn’t take long for him to look a little piqued that the tantalising cup quarter final was being relegated to second place … or that Guardiola’s every move at Bayern looms as being a subject for every fourth or fifth question of each damn press conference next season.

More seriously, of course, there is the question about whether any key men at the Camp Nou — technical staff or stellar playing talents — might migrate and fly north in the summer?

Victor Valdés is in the throes of contract re-negotiations as is Sergio Busquets. The Barça Academy is full of glowing young tyro-talents — prime for plucking by Pep.

Normally Barça treat all that as an occupational hazard of forming exceptional young players and haggle for big fees which are then pumped back into youth development.

But it was only 48 hours ago that FCB President Sandro Rosell alleged Manchester City had been attempting to wave petrodollars in the direction of some Barça talent. Whether his attempt to boom out a ‘hands-off’ message was convincing remains to be seen.

If I were either the agent of Valdés, Busquets or anyone in line for an imminent contract renewal I’d be dancing a feverish jig of joy right now to the tune of ‘We’re in the money, we’re in the money…”

SPECIAL ONE: Difficult times for Jose Mourinho at Real and Bayern are a huge foe

#3. Will Jose move to Germany just to get piss Pep off?

Now the Special One has always had a devilish sense of humour and, equally, he’s always boasted about being the only man capable of picking off major trophies in Portugal, England, Italy and Spain. So perhaps next season he’ll head-hunt Bochum or SpVgg Greuther Fürth, demand the manager’s job and storm into the Bundesliga title fight just to get under Pep’s skin again. Don’t pretend you weren’t already thinking about him doing something like that.

As for the ripples in the pond reaching President Pérez’s toes, it might not be a bad thing. Bayern are already Madrid’s most redoutable European foe.

And not just because of Los Blancos’ elimination at the hands of FCB in the Champions League semi final last April. Of Madrid’s twenty Champions’ Cup meetings with Bayern they’ve only won seven and the goals scored are 33-26 in the Bavarian’s favour.

So for them to add the arch anti-Madridista in Guardiola, with the guarantee that Bayern’s attention to detail and ruthlessness when it comes to winning trophies will increase, it must seem a trifle ominous to the President of the Spanish champions.

Moreover Bayern, like Barça, have a guiding football and business philosophy which is starkly different to Madrid’s and the Bundesliga leaders also put enormous faith in their own youth development policies. Time for Florentino to look and learn?

And finally…

THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTER: Pep can get the best out of Javi Martinez

#4. The situation for the Bayern squad, Javi Martinez and Spain

It’s simple to explain why Bayern is a natural fit for Guardiola. Ambitious, well-run, attentive to detail, a club with a Bavarian identity rather than German just as Barça feels itself firstly as a Catalan institution rather than a Spanish outfit. It’s also pretty clear what Guardiola brings to the party.

Basically this is all, ‘winning machine gets Formula One petrol in its engine — GO! GO! GO!’ as Murray Walker used to screech.

But there will be some stalled engines. Guardiola is maniacal about detail, quite right too. His demands are high and they are incessant. Without question he will encounter one or two at Bayern who either think, or worse still say: “Es tut mir leid, aber das ist nicht, wie wir die Dinge hier tun.”

Which, roughly, means: “That’s all very well pal but that’s not the way we do things around here you know.”

A deadline missed, a little bit of larking around during training, a stretching exercise only 95% completed, a late night ahead of a match… too many appearances in sponsors’ adverts.

If anyone at Bayern Munich’s Säbener Straße training centre doubts what kind of tightening of the leash is coming they need only phone Samuel Eto’o, Zlatan Ibrahimovic or Yaya Touré.

As for Javi Martínez, I suspect good times lie ahead. His €40m price tag has occasionally chafed this season. Hands up anyone who is totally shocked?

Okay, please leave the classroom.

But he now fulfills the right side of the two-man midfield, with Bastian Schweinsteiger, in retiring manager Jupp Heynckes’ regular 4-2-3-1 formation.

However, there could be no better ex-midfielder to become maestro to the talented, athletic Basque who can look closely at Xabi Alonso and Sergio Busquets now and believe: “I’m capable of making them fight much harder for their places in the world champions’ starting XI.”

I’m certain their shared language, ability, outlook and professionalism will unite Guardiola and Martínez, to the great benefit of the latter.

Then, dear reader, there is you and I…

RETURN OF THE KING: Whatever way you look at it, Pep Guardiola’s comeback is good for football

Neutral or partisan, German, Spanish, Catalan, Bavarian, Scottish, English, Irish or Welsh we should all be thrilled to the core that the beautiful game has one of his most attractive participants back again.

Viel Glück Herr Guardiola.

• Graham Hunter on La Liga for the Paddy Power Blog
  
• Betting: Bundesliga
• Betting: La Liga

Graham Hunter is a Barcelona-based, British soccer writer whose passionate insight on La Liga can regularly be seen and heard on TV and radio. He also writes for the Paddy Power Blog on Spanish football. Follow Graham on twitter here.

In a controversial column, Graham Hunter tells the Paddy Power Blog why Spanish football and La Liga rules in style over the Premier League

“Mickey Mouse league, Spain. Only two teams in it.”

That was the comment on Paddy Power’s Facebook page on Monday morning. The contributor didn’t sign himself as Mr J Cyclops of Tunbridge Wells — but he might as well have done.

Perhaps it’s because it came at a time when the six male nominees who will take the stage during January’s Ballon D’Or ceremony are all either Spanish or work in Spain that the feedback comment caused apoplexy in the Paddy Power office.

Hats off to Andrés Iniesta, Leo Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, Vicente Del Bosque, Pep Guardiola and José Mourinho. I’d call that dominance.

Or maybe it seemed so out of place when Spain has eclipsed every other football nation by winning back-to-back continental titles with the World Cup squeezed nicely in between?

Oh, and should I mention early that since 2000 Spain has produced seven Champions League finalists and five winners?

You want Uefa Cup and Europa League, do you?

Ok, of the last 10 Uefa finals, seven of the 20 finalists have been from Spain, again five winners.

La Rojita are reigning Uefa European U21 Champions, have produced seven finalists in the last 11 U19 tournaments, including six wins, and just to ice the cake, five finalists of the last 10 U17 Championships… with two winners.

THE GREATS: Count Spain alongside the West Indies, Schumacher, and Kenyans like David Rudisha

All in all it’s a blanket dominance to put West Indies cricket in the 1970s and 80s, Michael Schumacher, Tiger Woods, Kenyan distance athletes and the All Blacks (forever!) to shame.

Impressive, organised and well marketed though the English Premier League may be, it isn’t a patch on Spanish football. Not even within touching distance.

But there are some, seduced by the packaging who endlessly need to put Spanish football down so that they can feel better (more smug or less worried, I wonder?) about English football.

The Premier League is better television

Right here and now let me make clear my acceptance that much of this ‘good, better, best’ argument in sport needs boxing’s ‘pound for pound’ unit of measurement applied. Even then it’s often subjective.

For example even though those facts I’ve just listed pummel all other arguments into the ground, overall, I’m full of respect for football in England.

Compared to La Liga it is televised better, it’s more modern, the scheduling is better, the stadia are better, racism is something to be sought out and driven out rather than complacently accepted, and there will always be some who enjoy vaudeville, melodrama and ‘oh-no-he’s-not-oh-yes-he-is!!’ more than opera, ballet, arthouse cinema and Classic FM.

What’s more, one of the reasons Spanish football is so comprehensively better than British football right now is fundamentally thanks to… British football.

REIGN IN SPAIN: Cazorla and Reina have been successful imports as Spain taste international glory

Over the last 10 years there has been a wholesale movement of Spanish players to Scotland and England.

Phase A was when those countries went fishing, tentatively, for bargain players (those right at the end of their career or Segunda Division talents who weren’t being paid their wages and thus were ripe for plucking) or uncut gems like Mikel Arteta, Cesc Fabregas and Gerard Piqué.

Phase B has been the realisation that the majority of Spanish footballers will have a technical and tactical quotient far above their UK equivalents, will probably be cheap (Michu anyone?) and on lower wages.

But back to Phase A.

Initially, those first Spanish exports found our lifestyle, our playing style and, let’s face it, our cuisine, hard to adapt to.

Some of their key conclusions were that in the UK the referee will blow for far fewer fouls, that we have a stronger sense of ‘fair play’and even your own team-mates will tell you to ‘get up off your arse’if you are rolling around in mock agony or diving for penalties.

But as the tough kids shone, Xabi Alonso, Cesc Fabregas, Roberto Martinez, Alvaro Arbeloa, Rafa Benitez, Pepe Reina, Fernando Torres at Liverpool they all brought home the message that in England you play hard, play fair and give absolutely everything.

That fan culture demands you run and try till your sweat glands are empty whether the team is winning, drawing or losing 5-0.

They, in a sense, were missionaries and what they preached when back amongst team-mates, national team coaching staff and the media was that UK football possessed something beautiful — toughness and a constant hunger to be mentally and physically strong enough to be victorious.

This was new to Spain and once the message was accepted, assimilated and applied here we began to see a fearful hybrid — modern La Liga players who were technically brilliant, could pass a camel through the eye of a needle, produced sleight-of-boot, were tactically smart and, now, were mentally and physically tough too.

So, Spain (club and country) is on a trophy winning spree of which England (and everyone else) can only dream.

Two-team league? Don’t make me laugh…

Spain, for a generation, has had a philosophy that all its age-level teams will play a brand of football and use formations which are tied to how the senior team is playing.

It’s a production line and the factory is called Las Rozas Ciudad del Fútbol. The Spanish federation has had its St George’s Park for just under a decade — quite an advantage.

Spain has vastly more professionally accredited coaches than England, and produces wave after wave of technically sublime players who now know that you have to be as ferociously tough as Piqué or Alonso and who tend not to get into tabloid scrapes over drink, drugs, girlfriends, air rifles or £20 notes.

But, as Mr Cyclops in Tunbridge Wells is presumably still fuming right now: “Spain is a two-team league!”

That’s the insult thrown in an attempt to belittle La Liga.

First of all it’s debatable how different it is from England.

Manchester City only began to remember what the title was, let alone became potential winners, once it was nicely plumped up with petrodollars. Nothing wrong with that. Manchester City are an exciting new force — especially now that they’ve hired Spaniards as Chief Executive, Director of Football and big boss on the pitch (David Silva).

But remove them from the equation and compare Spain’s title winners with England’s title winners since 2000. La Liga boasts Deportivo La Coruña, Valencia (twice) plus Real Madrid and Barcelona.

England has just three: Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal.

Chelsea, by the way, are owned by someone with a personal worth meaning that the debts run up by Barcelona and Real Madrid would just be loose change to him. And if Arsenal win a trophy in May it’ll be their first in eight years.

More to La Liga than El Clasico clubs

No club in Spain has Chelsea or Manchester City’s wealth. Arsenal are a club in search of new impetus — pound for pound the English league has been utterly dominated by one outfit, Manchester United, since 1996.

What’s more, those who mock La Liga because “any team can beat any other” in England but “Madrid and Barcelona win easy” in Spain are ignoring large flotillas of facts.

What about when Sporting Gijon took Jose Mourinho’s nine-year unbeaten home record by winning at the Bernabéu? Or when Numancia, a club small enough to fit in your pocket, beat Pep Guardiola’s Barça at the beginning of their treble-winning season?

In recent years Getafe, Levante, Real Zaragoza, Osasuna, Sporting, Espanyol, Villarreal, Hercules and Real Betis have all taken scalps against Real Madrid and Barça.

La Liga is competitive. It’s just that both of the Clasico clubs are very, very good.

During my 10 years in Spain, 12 different teams have qualified for the Champions League slots in La Liga’s top four positions – what’s the equivalent record in England?

And while these so-called ‘no mark’ also-ran Spanish clubs might not be capable of winning the title they have also proved hellishly difficult for the rest of Europe to defeat.

Think of Sevilla winning back-to-back Uefa Cups, and Atletico Madrid winning two out of three Europa Leagues, each time defeating the reigning Champions League holder — Inter and Chelsea in the subsequent Uefa Supercup Final, Espanyol and Athletic Club in the Uefa final, Getafe in the semi final, Villarreal eliminating Manchester United from their Champions League group, and so on and so on.

I fully understand fans of United, Stoke, West Ham, Everton — name the club you want — who care passionately about local rivalries and about scraping together the money for a season ticket and a couple of away trips. Perhaps continental football feels less important, perhaps they simply don’t like the less robust, more scientific style.

Fair play. I have no bone to pick with that.

But I’ve lost count of the top, top professionals in both coaching and playing in the UK who, when we meet, want to know more about the science behind Spanish footballers and coaches being that good.

The shining English talents in management and those who still play top level, take in or tape Spanish football whenever they can.

They revere Iniesta, Xavi, Messi, Isco, Alonso, Ramos, Soldado, Llorente, Thiago, Ronaldo, Rossi, Falcao and Villa, home-bred brilliance and the cream of world soccer, having already imported Silva, Mata, Torres, Reina, Cazorla, Michu, Pablo, Romeu, José Enrique, Kun Aguero, Touré, Azpilicueta, Suso, Rodolfo Borrell, Rafa Benitez, Roberto Martinez, Chico, Cuellar, Arteta and many more.

Just one more thought — who’s THE most sought-after coach in world football right now.

Clue: he lives in Manhattan but he’s not American.

What really matters in football…

Okay, by now you’ve twigged that I was charged with producing a provocative, or at least thought-provoking column.

What’s more, only a fool or a PR man would argue that there isn’t a great deal which, if transplanted from England, wouldn’t automatically improve the infrastructure, health, wealth and marketabillity of La Liga.

TWO GOOD: Messi and RVP represent the best of both leagues

But what romantics like you and I really care about is the thrill of a player beating his opponent one on one, the passing movement which zips the ball from boot to boot as if it were heat-seeking and laser controlled.

The genius of invention, the routine of the ball being a footballer’s friend.

No matter what the men in grey suits argue at the Emirates Stadium right now, it’s not about being there or thereabouts all the time — it’s about vein-bulging, adrenalin-pulsing excitement, gasps, roars, fun, skill… and trophies.

Winning regularly, and winning with style.

Ladies and Gentleman, in the red corner and STILL the champion of the world… Spanish football.

• Betting: La Liga
• More from Graham Hunter

Graham Hunter is a Barcelona-based, British soccer writer whose passionate insight on La Liga can regularly be seen and heard on TV and radio. He also writes for the Paddy Power Blog on Spanish football. Follow Graham on twitter here.

Spanish football expert Graham Hunter explains why Jose Mourinho could have a say in where the brilliant Radamel Falcao is sold – and why Atlético Madrid are about to undergo football’s version of the ‘Tourmalet’…

Twas the night before the night before Christmas but Santa brought Atlético Madrid a present anyway.

His name was Diego Pablo Simeone – slayer of David Beckham, slayer of reputations. Hardman.

The Argentinian was the knuckleduster in football boots at the throbbing, heart of Atlético’s midfield last time they won the Spanish league – back in the ‘Double’ season of 1995/6 under Raddy Antic.

Los Colchoneros were in a mess and Simeone, an Atlético fanatic, had been making eyes at his old team for months and months. Finally the old duffers at the Calderon took the hint and here, nearly one year on from that auspicious date of December 23 2011, Madrid’s second team are a proper force to be reckoned with.

Their UEFA Europa league triumph last season was impressive but topped off with a brutal, thrilling and utterly forensic dismantling of Athletic Bilbao in the final – it was like putting a starving bull mastiff in a small room with a sleepy lamb.

In terms of a match is was the embodiment of the Simeone spirit – muscle, mentality, intelligence and intensity.

This term his lads have continued their all-out assault on their reputation as a fragile, fair-weather powderpuff of a club. However, before Simeone can put flame to a Cohiba and celebrate 365 days in the job of his dreams he and Atlético are about to go through football’s version of the Tour de France Tourmalet.

Gradient 1:10, only for winners – wimps needn’t get on their bike

This weekend at Atletico it’s Sevilla , fresh from their mauling of Real Betis – 5-1 in the city derby. Then it’s the Chamber of Doom – that five mile trip along the banks of the Manzanares river then cruising up Paseo de la Castellano until it looms over them, the Santiago Bernabéu.  Atlético haven’t defeated Real Madrid at home or away since Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink was their key man in the relegation season of 1999. Thirteen years of pain and humiliation. Moreover it’s nearly 14 years since they went into a derby ahead of Madrid in La Liga. (not that it helped them avoid a 4-2 defeat!)

So if this is their ‘Tourmalet’ (literaly ‘Bad Trip) then who could possibly be next on the ascent? World Champions FC Barcelona of course – at the Camp Nou.

Sevilla, who defeated Atletico in the Copa Del Rey final of 2011, Madrid who keep their neighbours in a gimp mask in the cellar, and Barcelona who have regularly run up four, five and six-goal wins over Los Rojiblancos in recent seasons plus an away Uefa tie in Pilsen and a Copa tie against Jaen – all before Christmas.  A test of fire.

But Atletico are a twin-engined winning machine at the moment.

Working under Simeone’s demanding control is the world’s best No9 striker (pictured above lifting the Europa League Cup with FC Porto in Dublin). With apologies and respect to Robin Van Persie, Wayne Rooney, Mario Gomez, Zlatan and their ilk, if you accept that Messi and Ronaldo play in different positions, then Radamel Falcao is the best centre-forward on the planet. By miles.

His team mate Filipe Luis says of ‘the Tiger’ (Falcao’s nickname for years now)…

He’s our barometer. If he’s fine, working hard, fighting for us then the team’s just like him – on top. He’s a natural leader, born with that quality which is why, goals aside, he’s converted into one of our captains. He gets a tough time – he’s so dangerous that opponents constantly kick him, pull his shirt, punch him and the officials don’t blow for enough fouls. I know it really hacks him off. But we are flying, the team is in great shape and we are all loving the way we play.

Antic, who won that red and white double in wonderful style back in 1996 says: “I’m enchanted by the way Falcao plays, how hard he works but above all how he’s become the symbol for all the players in this group to unite behind. Sometimes you get a guy whose play and personality are so good that it becomes contagious for the rest of the squad and he just naturally becomes their leader.

That’s what I see in Falcao and what’s even more exciting is that there’s more to come from him. I see some similarities in this team if you compare it to mine which won the league and the cup in 1996. The hunger, the work and the quality of the football. Will they win the title? All I’d say is that right now they aren’t inferior to any side in the league and nothing they are doing invites doubts.

But without being contrary there are some doubts to deal with before we can think of Atlético as potential champions, potential double … even treble winners.

The next four weeks will be a brilliant litmus test of the squad.

But another doubt is … what if Falcao is injured? Tellingly, Simeone left him out of the Uefa squad again this week and said: “We’ve scored in almost all our games in all competitions and that’s true even when I’ve rested El Tigre. Arda has added three goals, there are scorers across the squad and not to depend so, so much on Falcao is fantastic.”

Finally, the BIG question. How quickly will the Colombian be sold; how much Atletico actually paid for him, to what degree he is owned by the Madrilenos; and to what degree by investors in his agent’s company is a subject which is much debated in Spain.

If Atletico only part own Falcao, something which is both normal and legal in many countries, then under that hypothesis it would be for his agent and the investors to dictate when, to whom and for how much he’s sold.

The petrodollar clubs, Manchester City, PSG and Chelsea are lining up – they’d be fools not to.

Jorge Mendes, Falcao’s agent, is certainly shrewd enough to consider where another principal client, Jose Mourinho, will be for the next few seasons before helping the striker decide his own destination. So, potentially, add Real Madrid to the queue of suitors. A Christmas move, just as Simeone celebrates a year with the Tiger – you’d think not. But a move soon, nonetheless.  In the summer almost certainly.

For the moment he’ll need to help push Atlético up Tourmalet – what lies at the summit, glory, adoration and a multi-million-pound move to the English Premier League, should make Falcao a formidable opponent for Sevilla, Real Madrid, Barcelona and Co this coming month.

Graham Hunter is a Barcelona-based, British soccer writer whose passionate insight on La Liga can regularly be seen and heard on TV and radio. He also writes for the Paddy Power Blog on Spanish football. Follow Graham on twitter here.

Spanish football expert Graham Hunter previews the Champions League game between Celtic and Barcelona at Parkhead on November 7

The scouts and coaches who prepare to play FC Barcelona usually tear their hair out with tactical questions. To attack, to press, to hold a high line, to defend if they grab a lead, to play one up front, to use wingers to crowd out Barca’s marauding full backs, to double-mark Lionel Messi – it’s a never-ending list.

This time, however, there are two over-riding messages which Neil Lennon will need his troops to assimilate, understand and apply.

• Don’t give the ball away
• Keep your guard up late in the match

Why? Well, allow me to explain.

When Tito Vilanova’s side won 3-1 at home to Celta Vigo at the weekend they registered what is, statistically at least, their best-ever start to a Liga season. That’s one hell of a stat.

But, honestly, they are performing at about 80% of capacity – conceding quite a high number of home goals, having to fight back from a deficit five times in all competitions and only occasionally flaring into their luminous, brilliant best.

However, what is blindingly obvious that is that even when their form is being dragged down by constant injuries (Piqué, Puyol, Alves, Adriano, Alexis and Iniesta are all examples this season) the winning mentality this season is that of a bare-knuckle boxer.

So far this term Barca have scored 47 times in all competitions – of those, a remarkable 18 have been scored in the last 20 minutes of matches, whether they are losing, drawing or winning. That’s 38% of all goals this season notched when other teams are easing down mentally and physically.

Better still, 12 of those goals have come in the last 10 minutes – the late, late show when Jordi Alba dashed the hopes of Neil Lennon’s team at the Camp Nou wasn’t a fluke. And to those of us who watch them regularly it wasn’t a particular surprise either.

Chew on this: on the last two Barca visits to Parkhead Barca have scored three times in each game and of the six goals, three have come in the last quarter of an hour.

Wanyama highlights Barca danger

Most people are of the old cliche — glass half-full, glass half-empty life view. So some will ask if it’s a failing of Barca’s to need so many late goals and, perhaps, when you ally the tendency to the fact that the world champions have trailed this season to Celtic, Spartak, Osasuna, Sevilla and Real Madrid before coming back to win each of those games it’s true that they aren’t defending brilliantly.

However, if you accept that what it stems from is an unquenchable thirst to be scoring goals irrespective of how the match stands and accept that it’s an indication of Barca’s mental and physical toughness then, net, this tendancy is a positive.

So is their capacity to sieze upon mistakes. I spent last Monday talking at great length with Celtic’s midfielder Victor Wanyama. He’s only 21 and, with his brother, only the second Kenyan to play in the Champions League. He’s already in the top three Celtic players this season and has an increased chance of wreaking havoc given that the organiser of Barca’s midfield, Sergio Busquets, is absent.

What did Wanyama learn about playing Barca two weeks ago before he swapped shirts with Andres Iniesta?

The fact is that we have to give the ball away much less than we did. Great teams are just waiting for one error, one gift of possession and then they take advantage.

Barca boosted by Pique return

Whether Neil Lennon chooses to replicate two of the great Champions League performances under Gordon Strachan (beating Milan 2-1 and Manchester United 1-0) by playing cautiously and then converting clinically when the slightest chance emerges or chooses to try to run Barca off their feet it’s crucial Celtic are almost flawless when they have the ball, not just when they are defending.

For the visitors it’s clearly a boost Gerard Piqué is back, altough I know he feels he’ll be touch-and-go for this match after nearly one month out.

Equally the fact that the kick on the knee which Leo Messi took late in the Celta victory hasn’t ruled him out is a major factor in betting that Barca will impose themselves and win.

Are they invulnerable? No way. But do they bring a bagful of tricks and a habit of pulling off final flourishes under pressure? Yes, definitely.
Stand by for a big match and don’t, whatever you do, blink when the clock is ticking towards the 90th minute.

• Betting: Celtic vs Barcelona
• More from Graham Hunter

Graham Hunter is a Barcelona-based, British soccer writer whose passionate insight on La Liga can regularly be seen and heard on TV and radio. He also writes for the Paddy Power Blog on Spanish football. Follow Graham on twitter here.

If any of the maths teachers I inadvertently tortured at Cults Academy are either still alive or not in the padded cell of a warm, caring asylum, driven there in foaming rage by my inability to assimilate basic numeric rules, they’ll be shocked rigid that this week’s column centres on numbers. Or at least statistics. Make of them what you will.

There are human stories aplenty ahead of the 83rd La Liga ‘Clasico’ at the Camp Nou when Barcelona entertain Real Madrid this Sunday night.

• Sergio Ramos is sticking long, sharp knitting needles in a wax effigy of Jose Mourinho while the Special One is affecting nonchalance.
• Carles ‘Robocop’ Puyol has suffered his third major injury of the season (fractured cheek, knee ligaments and now dislocated elbow)
• Gerard Pique’s ankle is (at the time of writing) making him look as stable as Bambi on ice skates.

This means Barca will take to the field at the Camp Nou with a pair of central defenders who are as quick on the turn as a ‘Thatcher at a Party Political Conference‘ (it’s a technical football term).

Good luck Javi Mascherano and Alex Song. Win, lose or draw, have two aspirins and a wee brandy waiting for you in the dressing room at full time.

IRON MAN: But Puyol misses El Clasico after his freak Champions League injury

We’ve had two classic Clasicos already

Already this term we’ve savoured two classic Clasicos. I defy anyone to argue that the explosive cocktail of brilliant football, errors, passion, noise, red cards and bookings wasn’t utterly seductive during Madrid’s 4-4 away-goals trophy win back in August.

Now, here we are again.

This first Clasico is weeks earlier than normal (more than two months earlier than last season) to allow the second league meeting to take place before the crucial moment in April. Then, both clubs want to be competing in the UEFA Champions League semi-finals but don’t want to be left looking like the cast of Dad’s Army (something which cost each of them dearly against Chelsea and Bayern Munich six months ago).

That, in itself, tells you something about the degree to which the vast economic attraction of success in Europe is beginning to edge ahead of the absolute need for domestic supremacy.

So it’s even more surprising that we hit this ‘early bird’ Clasico with Barcelona already enjoying an eight-point cushion over their rivals. Just 26 times in the 83 Liga Clasicos at Camp Nou have Barcelona kicked off with any points advantage at all over Madrid.

MANE MAN: Cristiano Ronaldo has a formidable record against Barcelona

Barcelona on top in recent derbies

Of the last 17 Clasicos (2008-now), at either stadium, Barcelona have won 10 and only lost three. That’s a remarkable statistic which might point to pundits and punters alike backing the home side on Sunday – particularly given that a victory would put Barça a massive 11 points clear of, traditionally, their most dedicated rival for the Spanish title.

Whether establishing that double-figure gap as early as October could feasibly rule Madrid out of repeating their Liga win of last season (I’d say ‘yes’) remains to be seen. However, the only precedent for Barcelona taking an exact eight-point advantage into the first Clasico is from 1990/91. Then, the Catalans won 2-1 and did indeed go on to lift the title.

Nevertheless, what that positive win-ratio for Barça over the last 17 meetings hides is the equally remarkable fact that Los Blaugrana have regularly tied their hands behind their back before, often, going on to inflict damage on Los Blancos.

For example, on nine of those occasions Madrid have scored first. If you add the missed penalty by Samuel Eto’o in Pep Guardiola’s first ‘derbi’ against Madrid as Barcelona coach when the score was 0-0, it’s evidence that Barca like to do things the hard way.

Obviously there was a long spell when that didn’t matter. It became as if Barça either chose to, or needed to handicap themselves before kicking into action. Now things have changed. Even across the first few meetings when Jose Mourinho was in charge, Madrid mostly played Barcelona without any clear conviction that they were going to win… nor even to compete to win. That has been shrugged off, particularly at Camp Nou where there is no impetus for Real Madrid to make the play, where they can inflict their rapid transitions from either defence when a Barca attack breaks down or when they rob the ball in midfield, Madrid are once again clear in what they need to do and confident in their ability to do it.

HE’S COME A LONG WAY: Iniesta (pictured in 2003) has yet to lose a Clasico in which he’s scored

If Los Blancos are allowed a lead these days, they are likely to convert it. Just at this moment they are patently only beginning to approach their very best. There has been a gradual return towards pace, precision, focus, aggression and efficacy but the champions spent some weeks a distance off their ‘A’ game.

For Barcelona Leo Messi is playing frustratingly deep and doesn’t look as crisp as usual. Messi has still produced 10 goals this season and has conjured his team’s last four assists. He’s different gravy. Equally, Andrés Iniesta, who is still to lose any match for Spain or Barcelona where he has scored, is only just back after injury – can he be a determining factor?

The balance of probabilities is  that the pattern of the last five Camp Nou Clasicos offers a good guide.

Results of the last five Camp Nou games between Barcelona and Real Madrid

• 1-1 (Champions League)
• 3-2 (Supercopa)
• 2-2 (Copa)
• 1-2 (Liga)
• 3-2 (Supercopa)

Tight games, single goal winning margins. This game isn’t only called El Clasico, it’s also known as ‘El Derbi‘ and, like all great derby matches, totally remarkable things can happen.

But having said that, Ronaldo now has four goals in his last four Camp Nou visits. He also has two consecutive hat-tracks – against Deportivo La Coruna and Ajax. Ronaldo is beginning to re-establish the partnership he most enjoys at Real Madrid, with Karim Benzema.

I’d pick CR7 to score again, for there to be at least one red card, Barcelona not to lose and the league to go to them if they win. There, that’s that sorted. Now all you need to do is stock up on the beer, the chorizo nibbles, get your  punt sorted, then relax and watch all of that come true word for word.

Hasta Domingo!

• More Graham Hunter columns 

Graham Hunter is a Barcelona-based, British soccer writer whose passionate insight on La Liga can regularly be seen and heard on TV and radio. He also writes for the Paddy Power Blog on Spanish football. Follow Graham on twitter here.

They call it the FIFA Virus. Not a pleasant term, but there you go.

It’s damaging, there’s a huge debate about whether a cure exists, and you can catch this bug three, even four times per season.

It’s what Spain calls the affliction which troubles the country’s biggest clubs when they finally get their star players back from international duty and then face a tricky tie (usually away).

It’s also, partly, the reason FIFA introduced the idea of playing internationals on Fridays and Tuesdays.

Thus the biggest clubs around Europe get their players back a little sooner and, eventually, the ‘virus’ might become a little less debilitating.

I raise it because this is the week when wheat and chaff could be forcibly separated.

PAIN IN SPAIN: Iniesta, pictured against Ireland, will miss three games after his international duty injury

Real Madrid travel to Sevilla and Barcelona play in Madrid, always a hostile city for them, and it’s against Getafe.

Whichever side posts a big away performance could significantly influence what’s likely to be a two-way battle for the title. And Barca’s ability to do so has been undermined by a thigh injury to Andrés Iniesta, picked up in Georgia with Spain, will means he misses three matches, while Jordi Alba has returned to base with tonsillitis, too.

Getafe’s coach is extraordinary

You might not know a hell of a lot about the little club from the working class suburb of the Spanish capital but I think Getafe’s coach is pretty extraordinary.

Luis Garcia took Real Madrid’s scalp a couple of weeks ago and last season he and Getafe inflicted a 1-0 defeat on Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona. While he was at Levante, Garcia produced a 0-0 draw and a 2-0 win against José Mourinho’s Real Madrid.

Over the last couple of seasons Garcia’s teams have defeated Athletic Madrid (twice), drawn with and beaten Valencia (3-1), put five goals past Sevilla. He’s not only a good organiser who openly admires the idea of making it hard for stylish teams to play and who believes strongly in the high tempo pressing game but he comes from the Mourinho/Benitez school of – win first; ask questions about finesse later.

How the FIFA Virus works…

So it’s particularly in tests like this that the FIFA virus can play a part.

Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia and Atletico Madrid send South American players like Marcelo, Higuain, Messi, Mascherano, Dani Alves, Diego Alves, Alexis, Jonas and Falcao away to their national teams, and they come back knackered.

Usually it’s an overnight flight back to arrive around Wednesday breakfast, three or four hours sleep if they are lucky then a meal, then training.

After that the working routine between Thursday morning and matchday is the same as normal but the players’ sleep patterns are not.

Those who suffer worst of all from jet lag can spend up to two weeks trying to get their sleep routines back to normal – it adds to dopiness, sluggishness and slower decision making in high-tempo match situations.

Where Getafe have an advantage

Now take the opposition, Getafe for instance. Garcia really lost no more than a handful of players, none of whom had to fly transatlantic.

Barrada, Sarabia, Álvaro, Lacen – they’re important guys but also in the minority in that Garcia had the rest of his squad to work with.

Think about it. Two full weeks, minus a couple of days off to recharge batteries, where defensive tactics and attacking strategies can be worked on over and over again.

Niggling injuries heal, new players get a chance to bed in, the coach preaches his gospel.

Nearly two working weeks with one single, clear-cut focus – it breeds a hungry, fit, aggressive opponent for the jaded, jet lagged big guys.

Last season’s 1-0 defeat at Getafe came shortly after the November international break when Spain’s international players lost to England then flew to Costa Rica and back for a meaningless friendly.

There’s currently a five-point gap between the co-favourites for La Liga, in Barca’s favour.  However, the need for them to cope with the hostile test ahead of them on Saturday is apparently exacerbated  by Real Madrid’s fixture.

The trip to play Sevilla has often been a classic in recent seasons, not only  a place that Los Blancos might drop points but a clash which could provide the most brilliant football imagineable.

But Sevilla have no Freddie Kanouté, no Luis Fabiano, no Adriano, Renato, Alves, Poulsen, Keita or Juande Ramos. The golden era has rusted and on their last two visits Real Madrid have plundered six points and 12 (yes TWELVE) goals, of which Ronaldo has scored seven.

The Andalucians have done some strengthening, notably Diego Lopez in goal and this might well prove to be a firmer examination of Mourinho’s champions. However, prima facie, Barca face the tougher match, the FIFA Virus may be about to bite and, even this early, it could be a big weekend.

Who’s up for it?

• Betting: La Liga
• More Graham Hunter columns 

Graham Hunter is a Barcelona-based, British soccer writer whose passionate insight into La Liga can regularly be heard on TV and radio. He will be providing regular columns for the Paddy Power Blog on Spanish football this season. Follow him on twitter here.