Britain’s Network Rail have decided to have a go at state censorship. The public transport company has taken exception to Paddy Power’s billboard advertisements in the fallout from the retirement of football manager Sir Alex Ferguson.

Yesterday, we revealed on the Paddy Power Blog that we’d emblazoned some cheeky news on Europe’s largest full motion digital screen in Liverpool. That billboard suggested that a scouser has had two wishes fulfilled with Margaret Thatcher departing and Sir Alex Ferguson retiring, so Liverpool winning the League must be the third and final wish. The ad went up outside Liverpool Lime Street station and with a brilliant reaction to it locally and on social media Paddy Power decided to roll it out nationally on advertising sites at railway stations.

Here's the billboard we've put up outside Lime Street Station in Liverpool that everyone is talking about… http://t.co/RGRUgtowWD—
Paddy Power (@paddypower) May 09, 2013

[How we announced the news via Twitter on Thursday, and below fans' reaction]

This is absolutely brilliant from @paddypower! Another quality billboard #lfc—
Grant Jennings (@grantjennings) May 09, 2013

Paddy Power are amazing at pushing the boundaries blog.paddypower.com/2013/05/09/pad…—
Ainsley Lathrope (@ainsleyem) May 09, 2013

Paddy power billboard in Liverpool, banter at its finest ⚽⚽⚽ http://t.co/phvVPz9coj—
Oliver (@OllieOCall) May 09, 2013

However, Network Rail has had other ideas and have rejected the campaign from spreading to sites over which it had advertising control, nationally in the UK.

With customer complaints clearly being something Network Rail takes very seriously Paddy Power has looked at the real bugbear for most rail passengers and have given odds of 20/1 that there will be a reduction in average train fares in January 2014 compared to the rise of fares in January 2013.

@networkrail would like Paddy to point out they have nothing to do with fares. They simply censor ads and make trains run late. —
Paddy Power (@paddypower) May 10, 2013

• Let Network Rail know what you think via their Twitter account @networkrail
• Or tell Paddy what you think via our Twitter @paddypower

• 12 of Paddy Power’s greatest controversies

Make no mistake, it has been a difficult few days for UKIP as they suffer the scrutiny that their poll standing brings. Finding themselves under heavy bombardment from their political enemies in the run-up to Thursday’s local elections was, of course, no coincidence.

Don’t let that discourage you from putting your money on Team Farage this week. It is a tough one to call, but Guido is backing UKIP to take over 50 seats. Here’s why…

First and foremost, this week’s number of note: UKIP is running candidates in 72% of the seats up for grabs, compared with a paltry 24% when these seats were last before the electorate in 2009.

What the academics are saying about UKIP…

Any psephologist worth his salt will tell you this translates to a considerably-increased capacity to win big. The political academics Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher are projecting 40 seats will be won by UKIP, based on UKIP improving on their performance in seats where they stood in 2009 — less than one quarter of the contested seats. This time round they are standing in three quarters of the seats contested and polling much higher nationally.

The party has been on a steep trajectory since the Conservatives made sweeping gains in 2009. This time round, with David Cameron suffering mid-term blues in Downing Street, those traditional Tory seats are there for the taking. With three times the manpower, UKIP will undoubtedly inflict damage on Dave.

Normally, mid-way through a parliament it is the second or third parties who steal the spoils. But Ed Miliband is polling badly for a Labour leader three years into a Tory-led government. As for the Lib Dems, the traditional protest party in local elections, Coalition has been nothing but catastrophic for them in the polls.

It is worth noting that UKIP take less than half of their support from former Conservative supporters, and a further quarter from Labour and the Lib Dems. Nick Clegg’s pantomime villains have no chance of rivalling UKIP as the untainted anti-establishment choice, and it will be particularly interesting to see how Farage’s troops can hurt Labour in the North. Don’t be surprised if they make more than a few gains from the reds and yellows, as well as the blues.

UKIP have been riding high nationally

Punters will understandably be concerned by the negative press UKIP have received over the weekend. Guido doubts this will have much effect on Thursday’s result. Voters won’t be interested in the petty politicking between rival political parties, and in truth little has come out over the last few days that will change the minds of the vast majority of UKIP voters. The party has been riding high in the polls at around 15% over recent weeks. Don’t expect that to change off the back of a few negative stories.

Thursday could well be the breakthrough ahead of next year’s Euro elections for Nigel Farage (pictured above). One thing is guaranteed: his party will win a much greater share of the overall vote than ever before. Whether this translates into seats is another question, but you can be sure that they will hurt the Tories and cause problems for the other parties too. The battle to reach the 50-seat mark will be hard, but the numbers suggest it is good value for a flutter this Thursday.

• Guido’s tip: UKIP to win more than 50 seats — bet here
• Betting: All UK local elections — bet here

Read more from Guido for the Paddy Power Blog

Officers raided the bus at the Globen concert venue in Stockholm, Sweden, where pop star Bieber (19) was performing on Wednesday.

Swedish police spokesman Lars Bystrom says a small amount of drugs and a stun gun were found.

Sky News reports that an officer  smelled marijuana on an empty vehicle outside the Stockholm hotel where the pop star was staying just before his concert.

Drugs police later followed the bus to the venue before searching the empty vehicle after around 10 passengers – including Justin Bieber – had entered the arena.

A police spokesman said: “They found a small amount of drugs and a stun gun. Now the drugs are sent over to the forensics lab and before we have the analysis results we won’t (comment further). It was a short search for around half an hour.”

What were the drugs found on Justin Bieber’s tour bus? Paddy Power is taking bets. More as we get it. Whoop.

•  1/7       Marijuana
•  6/1       Cocaine
• 12/1      Methamphetamine
• 14/1      Heroin
• 14/1      Ecstasy
• 20/1     Crack Cocaine
• 25/1     LSD
• 25/1     PCP
• 100/1   Calpol

What were the drugs found on Justin Bieber’s tour bus: BET HERE

More Justin Bieber markets…

• 3/1 To enter a residential rehab facility
• 7/2 To apologise for using illegal drugs via Twitter
• 12/1 To do a confessional interview with Oprah
• 16/1 To be photographed smoking marajuana with Rihanna
• 16/1 To be conviced of possessing illegal drugs
• 500/1 To compete in the next Tour de France

Worryingly, after consulting Paddy Power’s war cabinet and military advisor (Steph on the 3^rd floor…) our number-crunchers think a pre-emptive nuclear military strike looks as likely as Seabass romping home to victory in the Grand National tomorrow – both 10/1, ish.

I’M ON A HORSE: Kim Jong-un’s bid for Grand National glory was undermind by his nag-rockets

The very same team of experts also believe the rogue state is more likely than not to launch at least one more nuclear weapons test this year and is offering an explosive 16/1 should Kim and his band of not so merry men set off three tests or more. Have they no PlayStations in North Korea. Jesus.

Paddy is offering 25/1 for North Korea to declare war on the entire world at some point this year. However, it’s not all doom and gloom.

Kim’s clearly a sports fan and likes to unwind by firing off a bucket of balls down the range on a Saturday morning. So good is his swing, Paddy Power is offering a skimpy 6/4 that he’ll announce he’s beaten his father’s impressive round of 38 under par. It’s also rumoured he likes a kick about, but at the ripe old age of 28 the bookmaker believes it’s more likely that he’ll be coaching his national team in the 2018 World Cup (33/1) than playing in it (66/1).

Given Kim’s close friendship with Dennis Rodman, Paddy Power’s 200/1 for the North Korean leader to be photographed at this year’s NBA final looks like good value, as does the 25/1 on offer for the ex-NBA superstar to have taken up citizenship by year end.

Paddy Power also believes it’s more likely for North Korea to hold a democratic election before the end of 2015 (50/1) and even unite with arch enemy South Korea by 2020 (66/1) than for the rogue state to lift all restrictions on internet access this year.

A Paddy Power spokesperson said:

Calm down, Dear Leader, calm down. Here’s an idea. Instead of declaring thermo-nuclear war on anyone that’ll listen, get yourself back down the range and concentrate on knocking off your dad’s 38 under par. There’s a good lad.

DESKTOP Betting: Click here for North Korea Specials

MOBILE Betting: Click here for North Korea Specials

6/4        Kim Jong Un to announce that he has beaten Kim Jong Il’s 38 under par round of golf in 2013

5/2       North and South Korea heads of state to publicly sign a joint peace treaty/peace declaration by the end of 2013

3/1       ‘Team America 2’ to be released by the end of 2015

20/1      Kim Jong Un to set up a Twitter account in 2013

25/1      Dennis Rodman to have North Korean citizenship by the end of 2013

25/1      North Korea to declare war on the entire world in 2013

33/1      Kim Jong Un to resign as Supreme Leader in 2013

33/1      Kim Jong Un to rename a day of the week after himself

33/1      Kim Jong Un to coach North Korea at the 2018 World Cup

50/1      To hold a democratic election by the end of 2015

66/1      North and South Korea to unite by the end of 2020

66/1      Kim Jong Un to play at the 2018 World Cup

100/1    North Korea to lift all restrictions on internet access in 2013

200/1    Kim Jong Un to be photographed at the NBA final 2013

How many more nuclear weapons tests in 2013?

11/10    None

1/1       One

8/1       Two

16/1      Three or more

(Must be confirmed that a nuclear bomb signature has been detected by USGS)

Will North Korea launch a pre-emptive nuclear missile strike in 2013?

10/1      Yes

1/50     No

Eh? No, we don’t get it either. Bring on the National.

Paddy Power loves nothing more than Cheltenham and horse racing. Oh, and a bit of mischief.

So, for the Cheltenham Festival 2013 we have unleashed this beautiful giant green hot air balloon, based on our famous Lucky Pants.

After Ruby Walsh romped home on Champagne Fever on Tuesday, Paddy thought it only right to celebrate in style in a plan conceived after a night on the black stuff. Here are the results…

Up, up and away… Paddy Power’s Lucky Pants balloon during the National Hunt Chase on Wednesday

Fill her up, lads.. our team prep ‘Paddy Pant 1′ for take off

FULL OF HOT AIR: The Paddy Power team busy prepping our balloon in testing

Modelled on Paddy Power’s famous Lucky Pants, the balloon stands at a huge 63ft high and 60ft wide. It uses more than 3,600 sq ft of material, holds 115,000 cubic feet of air and boasts a belt-busting waistband of 2,260 inches. It took a team of top engineers and two of the UK’s most skilled seamstresses six months to make the giant undergarments flight-worthy.The basket carries up to four people (including the pilot). It’s nicknamed ‘Paddy Pant 1′ and made its debut appearance at Cheltenham after the Supreme Novice’s Hurdle.

Watch this space for more, keep your eyes on the skies around Cheltenham, and tweet your pictures to @paddypower using the hashtag #LuckyPants.

GREEN GIANT: That’s our team and the 63ft high and 60ft wide beauty

Here’s a picture from an eagle-eyed punter who caught in on Channel 4 live…

TEST FLIGHT: The Paddy Power balloon, Paddy Pant 1, takes to the skies earlier this week in secret

• Cheltenham Festival Betting: Click here
• Paddy Power: A history of cunning stunts

Latest  and updated pope betting odds with candidate profiles

By Michael Kelly | Editor of the Irish Catholic newspaper

@MichaelKellyIC

Trying to predict who the next Pope will be is a notoriously tricky business. In the early 1990s as Pope John Paul II’s health declined, the renowned Vatican-watcher Peter Hebblethwaite wrote a book entitled The Next Pope. In the book he predicted John Paul’s imminent demise and speculated on who would succeed the Polish Pontiff. Unfortunately for him, Hebblethwaite died in 1994 causing wags in Rome to speculate that the Pope – who reigned for another 11 years – was working on a book to be titled The Next Peter Hebblethwaite!

Candidates for the Papacy tend to keep their desire for the job secret. When mentioned as ‘Papabile’ (a potential Pope) it is considered poor form not to dismiss one’s own chances. This may be due in part to the Italian proverb that “he who enters the conclave as a Pope always comes out as a cardinal”.

So, with the above-mentioned health warning in mind, who are the front-runners to replace Benedict XVI in Catholicism’s top job? Geography will be crucial. In 2005, many observers thought the cardinals would look to the developing world; instead, they opted to stick with Europe and elect Joseph Ratzinger. Indications are that they will look farther afield this time around.

1. Cardinal Angelo Scola, Italy (71) — 3/1 2/1

The Italians are pinning most of their hopes on Scola, he is one of the few Papabile that have an active presence on Twitter, almost a prerequisite now since Benedict took to the social networking site late last year. He is considered conservative and close to Italian politicians. He was hand-picked by Pope John Paul II to lead an institute in Rome leading the Church’s opposition to divorce, contraception, homosexuality and abortion. He worked as an adviser to Pope Benedict in his previous role in the Doctrine watchdog and is likely to lead the conservative charge in the conclave. He is a former Patriarch of Venice and now Archbishop of Milan – two dioceses that remarkably have produced five of the eight Popes who reigned during the 20th Century. That’s quite the record.

2. Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga, Honduras (70) — 20/1 33/1

If the cardinals decide they want to look to Latin America for the next Pope, it’ll be hard to bypass Cardinal Maradiage. Latin America is home to half of the world’s Catholics and in the frontline of the Church’s battle to show that it is on the side of the world’s poor. He was widely seen as the Latin American candidate in the conclave that selected Benedict in 2005; however relative youth and inexperience counted against him. Theologically he is on the centre-left and speaks several languages. He has spoken out passionately on the need for a more-balanced world and strongly denounced the excesses of capitalism. Supporters say he is warm, personably and camera-friendly.

3. Cardinal Christoph Schonborn, Austria (68) — 16/1 12/1

On the face of it, Schonborn should be a shoe-in for the job. But he has a powerful enemy in the Dean of the College of Cardinals Angelo Sodano. A close friend of Benedict XVI, he nonetheless was summoned to the Vatican in 2011 and rebuked after he publicly criticised Cardinal Sodano over remarks the latter made which appeared to minimise the clerical abuse scandal. Theologically conservative, he has shown himself open to innovation even suggesting once that the Church should readdress the issue of priestly celibacy. He is currently managing a stand-off with some priests in Austria who are leading a ‘call to disobedience’ calling for a more liberal Church. If he is to succeed, he will have to overcome a powerful lobbying campaign by Sodano, viewed by many as a king-maker.

4. Cardinal Peter Turkson, Ghana (64) — 3/1 4/1

Turkson is the African with the most-realistic chance of becoming Pope. He is considered an excellent communicator and someone who is comfortable in any circumstance. He is head of the Vatican’s Department for Justice and Peace and therefore to the fore of the Church’s participation in global politics. He has been sharply critical of capitalism and has even called for a “world authority” to be established to regulate market capitalism. At the same time, he is considered theologically conservative while remaining open to dialogue. He was a star turn at the International Eucharistic Congress in Dublin last year where he mingled easily with ordinary pilgrims and gave presentations lauded for their insight and teaching.

5. Cardinal Marc Ouellet, Canada (68) — 7/1 10/1

Ouellet, a French-Canadian could emerge as a good compromise if the European cardinals decide that they want to go for an almost-English speaker as opposed to a full-blooded American. Having worked extensively in dioceses in Canada, he is now head of the Vatican’s powerful office that appoints bishops all over the world. He is well-regarded in Rome and has worked extensively with other Christian Churches to try and bring about greater unity. Theologically he is conservative and tends towards traditionalist practises within the Church. While even his critics don’t doubt his sincerity, Roman commentators point to his obvious lack of visible charisma as a limiting factor.

6. Cardinal Juan Cipriani Thorne, Peru (69) 80/1

The truth about the secretive Opus Dei movement within the Church is nowhere near as interesting as Dan Browne depicts in The Da Vinci Code. However, the fact that Thorne is a member of the organisation will set tongues wagging immediately. As a former basketball player and engineer, his route to the heights of the Cardinal Church has been unconventional to say the least. As archbishop of Lima, one of Latin America’s biggest dioceses, he has amplified the Church’s voice in political affairs. He represents a more conservative thrust in Latin American Catholicism than any of his colleagues.

7. Cardinal Angelo Bagnasco, Italy (70) — 9/1 20/1

IN THE BAG? He’s Italian, which would make a change.

Bagnasco is arguably one of the most-powerful Churchmen in Italy serving as president of the Italian bishops’ conference. This role has placed him at the coalface in the sometimes bitter debates between Church and State in Italy. He has become a popular figure in his homeland criticising political corruption and even denouncing former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. The downside to all of this is, of course, that Bagnasco is little known outside of Italy. He has never worked abroad and is said to have little real understanding of the problems facing the global Church. He is seen as a staunch rival of Benedict’s right-hand man Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone. Many cardinals blame Bertone for some of the high-profile gaffes of Benedict’s Pontificate.

8. Cardinal Leonardo Sandri, Argentina (69) — 16/1 20/1

Sandri straddles two worlds: he is a native of Argentina, but born of an Italian family. His lack of pastoral experience is a real drawback. Ordained a priest in 1967, four years later he was drafted into the Vatican’s diplomatic service and has served the Roman Curia in this role ever since. He came to prominence in 2005 after becoming the man who read aloud Pope John Paul’s messages when the Pontiff lost the power to speak. His career took somewhat of a downward spiral under Benedict, and he is currently head of a somewhat obscure Vatican office that deals with eastern Catholic Churches. His ability as a diplomat is unquestionable, and he knows the ins-and-outs of the Roman Curia like no other. He remains largely unknown, however, to cardinals non-resident in Rome.

9. Cardinal Odilo Pedro Scherer, Brazil (63) — 25/1 7/1

Despite strong support for Cardinal Maradiaga as a Latin American candidate, Scherer is seen as being more favoured by European cardinals. He’s got plenty of Roman experience, having studied at the Gregorian University and later worked in the Congregation for Bishops in the Vatican. Within the Church in Brazil he is seen as a conservative voice. However, that may say more about the nature of the Church in Brazil. Overseas, he is seen as a moderate voice. In the event of no strong candidate emerging at the beginning, Scherer is a candidate that differing factions within the College of Cardinals could comfortably unite around.

10. Mario Bergoglio, Argentina (76) — 33/1 50/1

Bergoglio is a member of the Jesuit Order; he has won credit for his outspoken defence and advocacy for the poor of Argentina. Supporters say he is a man of deep humility and compassion who is willing to stand up to the authorities when he feels it is necessary. According to an unverified account by an unnamed cardinal, he got ten votes in the first ballot of the 2005 conclave that eventually elected Benedict XVI. He is a member of several of the powerful Vatican congregations and, consequently, will be well-known by his brother cardinals around the world.

11. Cardinal Gianfranco Ravasi, Italy (70) — 12/1

Considered more of an outsider, Ravasi represents a cultural wing in the Italian bloc frequently quoting from obscure northern European works of literature. Under Benedict’s direction, he has led a dialogue with the secular world and been at the forefront of the interface between Church and society in Europe. His relative inexperience (he has never run a diocese) would certainly count against him for more pastorally-minded cardinals. However, he is considered a skilled diplomat and a natural born communicator in the style of Pope John Paul II. He has urged priests to make their sermons more interesting and says he relishes the opportunity to help bring more young people back to the Church. If Europe emerges as a key consideration he has to be a contender.

12. Cardinal Francis Arinze, Nigeria (80) —25/1 40/1

Arinze seems destined to be the black Pope that never was. Nigerian by birth, he was brought to Rome in 1984 and made a cardinal a year later under John Paul II. His easy manner and keen administrative sense made him an obvious favourite as potentially the Church’s first black Pope. But 2005 came and went. Arinze turned 80 in November, and as such, is not allowed to enter the conclave or to vote. It doesn’t entirely exclude him from the change of being elected. However, for his brother cardinals it is likely to be a case of “out of sight, out of mind”. He is theologically conservative and has criticised a decision by the Church in the 1980s to permit altar girls.

13. Cardinal Timothy Dolan, USA (63) — 33/1 20/1

Dolan is known in Church circles to be pugnaciously orthodox defending the Church against its harshest critics. He has frequently complained against bias in the media. He has been seen as a Vatican enforcer and led investigations into Irish seminaries which are credited with tightening up the regime to ensure that future priests stick more closely to the Church’s traditional teaching. He is genuinely warm and regarded as down to earth, as comfortable drinking a beer at a barbecue as he is in the corridors of power in Rome. He is likely to be the victim of anti-American bias, with some cardinals complaining about his brash manner. That being said, if the cardinals opt for someone who will doggedly defend the Church to the death, they couldn’t have a better candidate.

14. Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, Philippines (55) — 20/1

RED-Y AND WAITING: At 55 it may be too early for Cardinal Tagle. About 30 years too early.

At 55, Tagle is barely an adolescent when it comes to Church years. However, since joining the College of Cardinals late in 2012 he has impressed many. To say that his rise has been meteoric would be somewhat of an understatement. A bishop since the age of 44, he leads the Church in one of the most Catholic countries in the world. He is approachable with a permanent smile. He gained attention in Rome last year at a conference on clerical abuse when he spoke forthrightly about the need for the Church to handle the issue decisively. His youth would also bring vitality to the job in an age where every action of the Pope is scrutinised. If the cardinals decide to take a chance, he’s definitely in with a shout.

15. Cardinal Seán Patrick O’Malley, USA (68) — 40/1 33/1

O’Malley would be the first Pope in over 300 years to have a beard. He has had a mixed record as Archbishop of Boston; on the one hand he has steadied the ship following the devastating clerical abuse revelations that forced the resignation of his predecessor. At the same time, he has annoyed many Catholics by the fact that he has closed down parishes and Catholic schools to fund abuse payouts. He was part of Pope Benedict’s tea that came to Ireland and recommended that Irish Catholics adopt a more conservative and rigorous approach to their faith.
He is a monk. The last monk to be elected Pope was Gregory XVI in 1831. He was ruthless, brutal and opposed gas lighting and railroads. As a result, the College of Cardinals tend to be a bit wary of monks.

16. Cardinal Dominik Duka, Czech Republic (69) — 200/1

Cardinal Duka is a hero of Catholicism in central and eastern Europe having spent time imprisoned for his faith under communist rule in the 1970s. He is a strong supporter of the ‘new evangelisation’ – the Church’s plan to breathe new life into the countries of ‘old Europe’ where the Faith is declining. He is not much spoken of in Rome, and, accordingly, not as well known among his colleagues as some other cardinals. Nevertheless, expect a strong push from eastern European prelates. He is a biblical scholar who ruffled a few feathers in Rome when he reported called the Latin Mass (loved by many conservative Catholics) “a Baroque artefact for Baroque times”.

17. Cardinal Giuseppe Betori, Italy (66) — 100/1

If the cardinals are tempted to go for a centrist who – at least in theory – can reach out to the various factions within the Catholic Church, Betori has form. He has tried to heal the historical divide between the progressive and conservative camps among Italian laity with various degrees of success. Betori has written in favour of the Church banning gay men from the priesthood and described abortion and euthanasia as the chief enemies of Christianity. However, despite his forthright views, he is accused by some in the Roman Curia of being hostile to Benedict XVI. Since Benedict has appointed many of the men who will elect his successor, this is sure to count against Betori.

18. Cardinal Donald Wuerl, USA (72) — 125/1 150/1

The Archbishop of Washington DC has survived in one of the most political cities in the world, that’s certainly a good training ground for Vatican City. Wuerl has impressed commentators all over the world for his willingness to confront the sexual abuse crisis. If this issue weighs heavily on the cardinals’ minds, Wuerl could emerge as a champion of transparency and accountability within the Church. His nationality will be a factor. Many cardinals are nervous about the prospects of electing a Pope from the world’s last remaining superpower. This could also have dire consequences for the relationship between China and the Vatican, one which Benedict XVI put a lot of energy in to resolving.

19. Cardinal Peter Erdo, Hungary (60) — 14/1 18/1

Cardinal Erdo has twice been elected the President of Europe’s bishops – this is a significant factor given that half the cardinals who will elect the next Pope are Europeans. He is considered a staunch traditionalist on doctrine, but good at building consensus among different groups within the Church. A formidable intellectual, Erdo’s critics say he lacks the personality and depth of vision to lead a global Church. However, his supporters point to the fact that he has worked hard to establish and deepen links between the Church in Europe and the Church in Africa. Given the fact that Africa is increasingly the powerhouse of the Church, this is a definite mark in his favour and means he may well pick up votes from Africa.

20. Cardinal Wilfried Napier, South Africa (71) — 100/1 33/1

NAP TIME?: A first ever African pope could be the tactical choice in these progressive times.

A black South African, Napier is seen as strongly conservative on doctrine, while not being afraid to speak up when he thinks criticism of the Vatican is justified. He has criticised authorities in Rome for not being sufficiently sensitive to the cultural differences in African Catholicism. He is a keen Twitter enthusiast and just as likely to be debating religion on the social networking site as the latest moves in England’s Premier League. He has studied extensively abroad and is very well-known in Rome for his advocacy for social justice. His humble Franciscan spirituality is seen as appealing at a time when pomp and ceremony are making a comeback in some quarters in the Church.
In 1988, he blocked a visit to South Africa by Pope John Paul II on the grounds that it would give legitimacy to the apartheid government.

21. Cardinal George Pell, Australia (71) — 50/1 80/1

Pell is a staunch conservative who combines doctrinal orthodoxy with a down-to-earth Australian sense-of-humour. He is a stout defender of the Church and has been to the fore in standing up for Benedict XVI against hostile attacks from some commentators. Pell serves on the Vatican’s committee that recommends new bishops and is seen as being responsible for pushing more conservative men to the fore. Even if he got off to a good start in the conclave, he is a divisive figure and would be extremely unlikely to attract votes from some of the more progressive camps within the College of Cardinals who see Pell as awkward and stubborn. He has been accused by Australian politicians of being a climate change denier. He has also ruffled some feathers by being an outspoken supporter of Australia becoming a Republic.

22. Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith, Sri Lanka (65) — 66/1 80/1

Hugely popular among the more traditional and conservative wing of the Church, Ranjith would allow the College of Cardinals to choose a man from the developing world with firm Roman credentials. Known for his personal holiness and administrative abilities, he is also a trained Vatican diplomat who has served in many cities around the world. He is a former senior official in the Vatican’s department responsible for the Church’s liturgy. He is also a former official in the Church’s department that manages the foreign missions overseeing a massive multimillion Euro budget. As such, he was responsible for sponsoring Church-related projects all over the world, winning his affection from many cardinals particularly in the developing world.

23. Cardinal Robert Sarah, Guinea (67) — 50/1 80/1

Sarah, known for his gentleness, has nonetheless shown himself to be a strong promoter of Pope Benedict’s vision for Church-run organisations. As President of the Vatican’s charitable arm, he has spearheaded a campaign for Catholic charities to be more explicitly Catholic in their outlook. He has encouraged Catholic organisations to end co-operation with groups that promote things like contraception that are contrary to Catholic teaching – this has won him wide respect within the Roman Curia. Well-known in Rome and in the developing world, he is little known in the rest of the Catholic world.

24. Cardinal Jaime Ortega, Cuba (76) 100/1 125/1

Ortega, the Archbishop of Havana since 1981, has come a long way from his humble background as the son of a sugar mill-worker. He has led the Church along a middle road with the communist authorities remaining cautiously defiant, while not wishing to bring ire upon the Catholic community. He is theologically conservative and has would be a man very much in the mould of Popes John Paul II and Benedict XVI, at least on religious questions. As is common for Latin American prelates, he is acutely aware of the limitations of free market capitalism. Anticipating a shift away from communism, he has urged Cubans not to construct a post-communist future on the basis of hyper-capitalist principles.

25. Archbishop Diarmuid Martin, Dublin (67) — 100/1 125/1

It’s almost 600 years since a Pope last retired – it’s more than 600 years since the College of Cardinals chose a Pope who was not a cardinal. If they go for that option this time, the no. 1 contender has to be the Archbishop of Dublin Diarmuid Martin. 67-year-old Martin has earned himself a distinguished reputation in the global Church for his handling of clerical sexual abuse. His forthright and no-nonsense approach has impressed many. However, some in Rome feel he has been too harsh in his criticism of other bishops. On the other hand, many think this approach is necessary. He is a former official of the Roman Curia and a Vatican diplomat and has travelled extensively gaining a valuable insight into the global Church. He is a shrewd administrator and a skilled political operator – qualities that enrage some while endearing Martin to others. If they opt for a non-cardinal, it’s hard to think of anyone else having a better chance.

• Betting: The Next Pope
• 500 years of popes — by age, star sign and name!

Political firestarter Guido Fawkes gives his opinion on the Eastleigh by-election for the Paddy Power Blog

When Liberal Democrat MP Chris Huhne resigned his Eastleigh seat after pleading guilty to conspiracy to perverting the course of justice you would naturally expect his party to suffer as a result. Counter-intuitively the Lib Dems opened the betting as favourites, this was partly because private polling before his resignation had shown that even if Huhne resigned, his party would still lead in the polls locally. Eastleigh has an overwhelming number of Lib Dem local councillors and the party has held the seat for two decades – a strong starting position.

The Lib Dems called the writ for the election as soon as was decent, hoping that a quick election campaign would capitalise on their strong local presence and deprive their opponents of time to organise. Just as the writ was called a poll commissioned by Tory billionaire Lord Ashcroft was released showing the Conservatives ahead, had the Lib Dems mis-calculated the kick-back against their party as a result of Chris Huhne’s lying?

Pretty soon another poll was published showing the Lib Dems ahead, the Tories a little behind with UKIP and Labour scrapping at the back for fourth place – perhaps explaining why UKIP leader Nigel Farage chose not to run in Eastleigh. On the ground canvass returns and anecdotal evidence suggested that the Lib Dems might even see their majority increased. The Lib Dems had strength in numbers, local knowledge and were putting their famed by-election winning fighting machine into action. The Tory candidate had made a few unfortunate comments with which her opponents were bashing her. Guido put his money on the Lib Dems at this point – it never pays to bet against the pollsters.

Rennard could undo the Lib Dems

Ironically it could be that the former maestro of that by-election winning machine, Chris Rennard, could undo the Lib Dems. Last week Cathy Newman on Channel 4 News exposed the now Lord Rennard with a string of allegations from women against him. The explosive report put what had long been rumoured into the public domain and onto front pages. The timing could not have been worse for the Lib Dems – will this turn away voters? If the issue gets cut-through with the public and women voters in particular, could it undermine the Lib Dem’s chances in Eastleigh?

Pollsters Survation released a poll this weekend giving the Tories a 5 percentage point lead – the poll was carried out just as the Rennard sex scandal was getting the maximum of publicity. The Eastleigh by-election is now definitely a two-horse race.

Local polling is far more difficult to get right than national polling because the sample sizes are smaller and more difficult to make representative, nevertheless experience tells Guido that betting against the data can be expensive. We have had four polls and they have forecast wins for both the Tories and the Lib Dems – not much help.

For now Guido’s money remains on the Lib Dems winning because they have the superior ground forces in that they have more local troops with the local knowledge required to get out the vote. If however another poll came out putting the Tories ahead, I would lay my bet and switch to the blues. With two days to go, my tip is to stick with the yellows.

Follow Guido Fawkes on Twitter here.

• Betting: Eastleigh By Election

By Josh Powell | Pope betting

Pope Benedict XVI took the decision on Monday that he was too old for the biggest gig in Catholicism and will step down on February 28th. Since then the betting on who will be elected in his place has been ferocious and Paddy Power has thrown an extra bit of spice into the mix.

If the cardinals elect the first black Pope to replace Benedict XVI, Paddy Power will refund losing single bets.

The election of the first ever black Pope could reflect the growing strength of the Catholic church in Africa and Cardinal Peter Turkson from Ghana and Cardinal Francis Arinze of Nigeria are near the top of the betting.

Cardinal Turkson is President of the Vatican’s council for justice and peace. After the economic crisis he proposed creating a world bank and he is regarded as a great communicator. The 64-year-old is 9/2 in the betting to be elected.

The form of Cardinal Francis Arinze isn’t bad either. He is the current Cardinal Bishop of Velletri-Segni. This is the position Pope Benedict held before he was elected so it wouldn’t be the first time Cardinal Arinze has followed in his footsteps. At 80-years-old he could be a touch over the hill and is available at 10/1.

The current market leader is Canadian Cardinal Marc Ouellet at 7/2. According to our sources he is outgoing charismatic and good pals with Pope Benedict which rightly means he is heading the betting. The 64-year-old holds a powerful position in the Vatican as Prefect of the Congregation for Bishops which is useful when trying to get votes. It is basically the equivalent of having a really good sob story on the X Factor.

In a strange election ploy Cardinal Ouellet described being pope in very unflattering terms. He called it ‘not very enviable’ and said it ‘would be a living nightmare.’

The strong Italian vote looks to be getting split between Archbishop Angelo Scola and Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone. After a Pole and a German the Italians will be keen to have an Italian Pope back in the hotseat and both men are getting well-supported.

Betting: Who will be the next Pope?

7/2     Cardinal Marc Ouellet

4/1     Archbishop Angelo Scola

6/1 9/2     Cardinal Peter Turkson

5/1    Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone

10/1     Cardinal Francis Arinze

10/1    Cardinal Leonardo Sandri

12/1    Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga

12/1    Cardinal Odilo Scherer

14/1    Cardinal Angelo Bagnasco

14/1    Cardinal Gianfranco Ravasi

20/1    Cardinal Christoph Schonborn

• Betting: Next Pope
  

Terms and conditions
Applies to single outright bets placed before 12.00pm Monday 18^th Feb.
Max Refund €/£25 per customer/bet.
Applies to the next permanently appointed Pope after Benedict XVI
Refund only applies in the case of Peter Turkson, Francis Arinze and Wilfred Napier.
Refund applies to the Next Pope Outright market only, does not apply to any other related markets.
Paddy Power betting rules apply and Paddy Power’s decision is final.

Football

There’s as much chance of John Terry becoming Pope as there is of Celtic qualifying for the next round of the Champions League. The Hoops suffered a 3-0 defeat to Juventus at Celtic Park and they have a mountain to climb in the second leg in Turin.

Tonight is being dubbed ‘The Perfect Match’ by Sky Sports as Manchester United take on Real Madrid. Sir Alex Ferguson’s men are 4/1 to come away from the Bernabeu with an away win with Real Madrid the odds-on favourites at 4/6. The draw is 3/1 with both teams hoping to have an advantage to take to Old Trafford.

If Manchester United win the match, Paddy Power will refund all losing single first goalscorer, last goalscorer, correct score and scorecast bets.

Read all about it: Paddy Power pays out on Manchester United to win the league!

• Betting: Real Madrid v Manchester United
• Betting: Champions League coupon

Racing

Today’s racing comes from Musselburgh, Lingfield, Southwell, Kempton and Thurles. But with rain forecast there will be a couple of inspections this morning so you can keep up to date with all today’s racing information right here.

The weights for the Aintree Grand National were revealed yesterday as the countdown begins to the world’s greatest steeple chase on April 6. Lexus winner Tidal Bay will carry top weight in the big race but has the chance of running from a mark 9lb lower than his official rating. Last year’s third Seabass is bound to be popular as Paddy power goes 12/1 the field and will place 1/4 the odds on the first five past the post.

• Betting: All Wednesday’s cards, form and odds
• Betting: Future Racing & Cheltenham 2013
• Betting: Grand National

Next Pope betting

Yes we Vati-can! Money-back from Paddy Power if the cardinals elect the first black Pope!

Cardinal Peter Turkson from Ghana is 5/1 in the market and Nigeria’s Cardinal Francis Arinze is available at 8/1. The current favourite to be elected as the next Pope is Cardinal Marc Ouellet of Canada.

All the terms and conditions are on site. 

• Betting: Next Pope Coupon 

By Josh Powell | Pope Idol

Pope Benedict XVI has announced he will retire on February 28 and Paddy Power has already opened a book over who will take his place in Rome.

Pope Benedict is reportedly retiring “due to advanced age” which is just Vatican talk for “pretty damn old”. The 85-year-old’s papacy began on April 19, 2005, and less than eight years later he is calling it a day. He’s also been using a cane and it was reported he struggled to read the text of an address he delivered in Rome.

‘After having repeatedly examined my conscience before God, I have come to the certainty that my strengths, due to an advanced age, are no longer suited to an adequate exercise of the Petrine ministry’.
Taken from Pope Benedict’s statement this morning

Benny became the first Pope to take to Twitter and managed to rack up an impressive 1.5 million followers. The German posted his first tweet on December 12 but unfortunately he didn’t put up any funny GIFs or hilarious memes. He stuck with some sound religious advice like this…

We must trust in the mighty power of God’s mercy. We are all sinners, but His grace transforms us and makes us new.—
Benedict XVI (@Pontifex) February 10, 2013

Canadian Cardinal Marc Ouellet is 5/2 market leader to be elected as the next Pope. He is Prefect of the congregation for Bishops which is seen as a powerful position within the Vatican, it seems. According to one of the Paddy Power lads who has his finger on the Catholic pulse, Cardinal Marc has experience of working in Latin in America, is a friend of Benedict and is apparently outgoing and charismatic. At 64 he is about the right age but could be seen as too young if anything!

Cardinal Peter Turkson is 7/2 and speaks six languages. The Ghanaian can understand Latin and Greek and has seen plenty of support early doors.

Cardinal Francis Arinze of Nigeria at 7/2. If either Cardinal Francis Arinze or Cardinal Peter Turkson are elected it would be the first time in history there would be a black Pope.

Early steamers in the market are Cardinal Keith O’Brien from Scotland who has been trimmed from 40/1 into 33/1, and Ireland’s Archbishop Diarmuid Martin who has seen his price slashed from 150/1 in to 80/1. 

It doesn’t look so good for Bono or Father Dougal Maguire though and they are both big outsiders at 1000/1.

Betting: Who will be the next Pope?

5/2     Cardinal Marc Ouellet

9/4 7/2     Cardinal Peter Turkson

7/2     Cardinal Francis Arinze

7/1 8/1     Archbishop Angelo Scola

10/1    Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga

12/1 14/1    Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone

14/1    Cardinal Angelo Bagnasco

16/1 20/1    Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio

20/1    Cardinal Leonardo Sandri

25/1    Cardinal Raymond Burke

25/1    Cardinal Cladio Hummes

25/1    Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi

25/1    Cardinal Christoph von Schonborn

33/1    Cardinal Wilfrid Napier

33/1    Cardinal William Levada

33/1    Cardinal Camillo Ruini

33/1    Cardinal Norberto Rivera Carrera

33/1    Cardinal Francisco Javier Errazuriz Ossa

33/1    Cardinal Renato Martino

33/1    Cardinal Albert Malcolm Ranjith

33/1    Archbishop Piero Marini

33/1    Cardinal Antonio Canizares Llovera

33/1    Cardinal Keith O’Brien

40/1    Bar

• Mobile betting: Next Pope
• Web betting: Next Pope

Twitter users haven’t been slow out of the gates and have taken a strong hold with some tasty one-liners.

• Betting: Next species to contaminate beef burgers 

I should be on a Stable Diet but I think I might give this #Findus meal a miss! #YFB http://t.co/uLTwTcUK—
Chubby Brown (@RoyChubbsBrown) February 08, 2013

It was probably a good thing that they stopped sponsoring this race… #findus http://t.co/h6Jzbbo2—
  (@bettingpro) February 08, 2013

What's the fuss? For years we've been told that Ready Meals contain too much Salt and Shergar. #findus—
Graeme Garden (@GraemeGarden1) February 08, 2013

Had #Findus beef lasagne for the mane course at lunch and now I've got the trots…—
Martyn Ziegler (@martynziegler) February 07, 2013

'Food beyond compare, food beyond belief, mix it in a mincer and pretend it's beef'. #Findus #dear #LesMis—
  (@westendproducer) February 07, 2013

#Findus website: "using only the best ingredients and a generous pinch of imagination in our recipes." I'd £10 at 5/1 on Imagination at Ayr—
Stewart Weir (@sweirz) February 07, 2013

So now Findus have withdrawn their products because of Horse meat contamination..
Shame..I really liked their Spaghetti Bologneighs.
#findus—
The Carpenters Arms (@thecarpentersw1) February 08, 2013

Doctor says I should watch what I eat, so I've got tickets to the Grand National. #Hiyooo #findus—
Andrew Trendell (@AndrewTrendell) February 08, 2013

#Findus confirms its products will not be available as of tomorrow as they are running the 1:20 at Chepstow, 2:30 at Aintree & 3:20 at York—
Andy Cawthray (@ChickenStreet) February 08, 2013

I'm not sure I see the fuss about this #Findus story, quite Frankely.—
Paddy Power (@paddypower) February 08, 2013

By Rob Dore | drugs

With the news that Lance Armstrong is set to be interviewed by Oprah Winfrey next week, we here at the Paddy Power Blog have been wondering just what the no-time Tour de France winner will have to say.

Personally, I think he’s going to confess. Why else would he choose such a hard-hitting, unsympathetic bulldog of a journalist like Oprah? Ahem.

Instead of asking why and how, Oprah will focus largely on the emotional turmoil he must have suffered as he used his, allegedly, falsely-created reputation to make millions from endorsements. Oh and what about his poor family? Show us some pictures of his innocent children and watch our hearts melt. Don’t make me sick.

If Armstrong does confess then he is banking on Oprah’s ability to tap into her viewer’s sympathetic sentiments to soften the backlash. If he doesn’t confess to taking performance enhancing drugs (PEDs) then he’s unlikely to have to work too hard to sidestep any tricky questions on the matter. Plus, she might give his book another push.

We, the rest of the world, deserve an apology from this beast (Armstrong, not Oprah). He hoodwinked us all in to thinking he was faster at cycling around France than anyone else in the world. Which is really important. This reprobate hurt us deeply, stripping away another layer of our ever-diminishing innocence and with it the world is a bleaker more hopeless place.

Is Oprah the woman to get this apology or will Dr Phil pop up to play the condescending bad cop? Jeremy Kyle is the real man for the job.

Paddy Power has priced-up some markets, including the number of times Lance Armstrong will say sorry, the number of times the word ‘doping’ is said, the first cliché Lance uses and the below specials.

Oprah interview betting specials from Paddy Power

• To confess to using banned performance enhancing drugs during his cycling career 1/4
• To cry tears during the interview 7/4
• To deny outright that he has ever used performance enhancing drugs in any way at any time 9/4
• To accuse another professional cyclist by name of taking performance enhancing drugs illegally 3/1
• To be interviewed in a room with the framed yellow jerseys 3/1
• To make an apology to Paul Kimmage during the interview 5/1
• To wear a yellow shirt or tie 9/1
• To jump up and down on the sofa 20/1
• It’s Not About The Bike to be included in Oprah’s book club 25/1

• Betting: Lance Armstrong – Oprah Interview Specials

By Andrew Robinson

Christmas is a time to indulge in plenty of food, booze and presents, but it could also be a time to make some money with Paddy Power’s festive markets.

The Christmas number one is traditionally a hard fought race right to the end, but this year it seems like the fat lady is warming up the vocal chords early.

X Factor winner James Arthur is struggling to compete with the Hillsborough Charity Single, He Ain’t Heavy, He’s My Brother, which the Official Charts Company puts ahead of Arthur’s Impossible by a huge 14,000 sales.

The odds for the charity hit to be sitting at number one when Christmas rolls around are 1/25 with Paddy Power, a sure-fire thing if ever we’ve seen one.

But if you think miracles do happen, you can have a punt on James at 10/1.

The best video game is also a hot topic at Christmas, but this is another race that looks all but wrapped up. Call of Duty: Black Ops II is 1/20 to be the number one video game under the tree this year.

Fifa 13 is second favourite at a huge 8/1, with Assassins Creed and Far Cry III priced at 12/1.

The soaps are also gearing up for their Christmas specials and have been for months, with Kat and Alfie’s long-running saga set to play out after we’ve all enjoyed the turkey and trimmings. It’s Max and Tania’s big day as well and a Walford wedding is always a must-see. It’s the 1/7 favourite to top viewing figures.

Up in Manchester, the love triangle between Tyrone, Fizz and Kirsty looks set to come to a head at yet another wedding, which will be a must see for Corrie fans. You can have a punt on the show topping the Christmas polls at 4/1.

The Queen’s speech is a dying Christmas tradition, but it’s a tradition all the same and you can have a bet on the spectacle and which cliché will be used first with Paddy Power.

The Olympics is the favourite to be the first thing to be mentioned at 13/8, followed by a reference to the Jubilee at 7/4 and the words “My husband and I” at 4/1.

She is well known for keeping up-to-date with the latest entertainment news and is 100/1 to mention Rihanna first from Paddy Power’s list.

• Betting: Christmas number one video game
• Betting: Queen’s Christmas speech
• Betting: Top Christmas soap
• Betting: Christmas number one single

It’s Newcastle against Wigan on the telly tonight so the big news is that Mary, Victoria and John are the joint 8/1 favourite baby names with Paddy Power after the announcement that Kate Middleton is pregnant.

Next in the running is Diana and Frances at 9/1, with Philip, Anne and Charles all available at 10/1. Current long shots include 80/1 Chelsy, 100/1 Bradley and 250/1 Fergie.

Elsewhere, Paddy Power make it an unlikely 6/1 that the child will have ginger hair, with brown the current 13/8 favourite.

Weight wise, the 5/2 favourite is for the new arrival to be born between 7lbs and 7lbs 15oz, while Pippa and Prince Harry are leading the charge to be named godparents ahead of 25/1 David Beckham and 100/1 Victoria Beckham.

A spokesperson for Paddy Power said: “There’s very little to choose from between the top 10 or so names in the betting. The nation will wait with bated breath on the blighters name – but I’d imagine some of our punters will be paying closer attention than most.”

• BETTING: Royal Specials

Betting odds on the Name of Royal Baby

8/1     Mary

8/1     Victoria

8/1     John

9/1     Diana

9/1     Frances

10/1    Phillip

10/1    Anne

10/1    Charles

10/1    George

12/1    Sarah

14/1    Alice

14/1    Louis

14/1    Richard

16/1    Elizabeth

16/1    Arthur

16/1    Henry

16/1    Edward

16/1    William

16/1    David

16/1    Spencer

16/1    Carole

20/1    Caroline

20/1    Andrew

20/1    Catherine/Kate

20/1    James

20/1    Marie

25/1    Phillippa

25/1    Alexander

33/1    Albert

33/1    Oliver

33/1    Frederick

33/1    Sophia

33/1    Jane

40/1    Patrick

40/1    Fiona

40/1    Christian

50/1    Janet

50/1    Georgiana

66/1    Camilla

80/1    Chelsy

100/1  Wallis

100/1  Bryan

100/1  Bradley

250/1  Fergie

Hair Colour

13/8    Brown

2/1     Black

2/1     Black

6/1     Ginger

Sex of First Child

5/6     Male

5/6     Female

Weight of first child

5/1     Less than 5lbs

7/1     5lbs to 5lbs 15oz

7/2     6lbs to 6lbs 15oz

5/2     7lbs to 7lbs 15oz

3/1     8lbs to 8lbs 15oz

6/1     9lbs to 9lbs 15oz

5/1     10lbs or more

Godfather

Evens  Prince Harry

3/1     Prince Charles

5/1     Thomas van Straubenzee

6/1     Michael Middleton

8/1     Guy Pelly

10/1    Earl Spencer

12/1    Prince Edward

15/1    Prince Michael of Kent

15/1    Peter Philips

25/1    David Beckham

30/1    Mike Tindell

Godmother

Evens  Pippa Middelton

2/1     Carole Middelton

8/1     Sophie, Countess of Wessex

8/1     Zara Philips

12/1    Princess Beatrice

12/1    Princess Eugenie

100/1  Victoria Beckham

There’s still two days to go before America votes and national polls show voters remain largely undecided with nothing more than a sheet of ballot paper between Democrat Obama and Republican rival Mitt Romney.

But Paddy Power believes it’s a done deal and Obama is a nailed-on certainty to win a second term.

The gutsy call sees Europe’s largest bookmaker put its neck on the line for more than £400,000 (over $650,000). Prior to the decision to pay out, Obama’s odds fell to a low 2/9 and over the past months Paddy Power has seen 75 per cent of money staked go Obama’s way.

A Paddy Power spokesperson said:

Romney gave it a good shot and is doing well in the popular vote, but we suspect he’s had his moment in the sun and is likely to be remembered more for his legendary gaffes than Presidential potential.  The overall betting trend has shown one-way traffic for Obama and punters seemed to have called it 100 per cent correct.  Despite Romney appealing to the large evangelical and senior vote, America’s sticking with black and cool.

Paddy Power continues to offer betting right up to and including Election Day.  One of the most popular bets on offer is predicting the winning margin of the successful nominee on November 6.

To see Paddy Power’s full range of betting on the American Presidential election click here.

[Singles only. Bets up to 10am, November 4. All bets will paid out by midday Monday 5th.]