This morning was one of those very mornings.

So we proudly present to you: The Doughnut.

The Doughnut shows you where the cash is going ahead of big sporting events like Wimbledon, the Ashes, or in this case, the Champions League Final between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund. Rather than being filled with jam, our Doughnut is filled purely with top quality information that may, or may not sway your betting.

Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich
Where the money is going

In this instance the money is flowing in for 4/5 favourites Bayern Munich and it is easy to see why. The German champs dominated the Bundesliga, winning by 25 points in the end and avoiding defeat in four meetings with Borussia Dortmund. 72 per cent of cash is flowing in for Jupp Heynckes’ men as they bid for a historic treble.

A quarter of punters’ pennies is on Borrusia Dortmund to win the cup in 90 minutes. Dortmund have lost just two of the last nine head-to-heads with Bayern and thumped them 5-2 last time they were on neutral soil in the 2012 German Cup. They are 7/2 to cause an upset at Wembley and will be relying on Robert Lewandowski to find the decisive goal, before he potentially leaves in the summer.

Lewandowski has dominated the tournament with 10 goals already, scoring all four in Dortmund’s 4-1 thrashing of Real Madrid in the Westfalenstadium. The Polish striker has five golas in nine games against Bayern Munich in his career and if he adds to that tally on the grandest stage of them all it will cost Paddy a pretty penny. He is refunding selected losing bets if Lewandowski gets the last goal of the game.

Not many people fancy this match to go to extra time, with just three per cent of punters backing the game to be level after 90 minutes. Bayern Munich went all the way to penalties when they lost to Chelsea 12 months ago and 30 per cent of the last 20 Champions League finals have been all square at the final whistle. There have been two draws between the sides in the Bundesliga this season and it could prove to be a bit of value at 13/5.

Fancy a nibble on the doughnut? Dive in to the Champions League Final betting and take advantage of Paddy’s MBS

“Shinji Kagawa is one of the best players in the world and he now plays 20 minutes at Manchester United – on the left wing! My heart breaks. Really, I have tears in my eyes. Central midfield is Shinji’s best role. He’s an offensive midfielder with one of the best noses for goal I ever saw.”
- Klopp weeps at how Manchester United use the former Dortmund hero in the Premier League, and pays tribute to his nose.

“It’s absolutely normal that people go different ways. At 18 I wanted to see the whole world. But I am only in Mainz and Dortmund since then and … [Klopp laughs] it’s not the middle of the world. It’s OK that they want to go to different places. But they get there and, shit, it’s not the same. Look, you work for the Guardian, and sometimes you see your colleagues and think: ‘Oh no, the same old thing every day.’ Maybe you want to go to the Sun? More money, less work. More photographs, [fewer] words.”
- Klopp’s response when asked about the loss of Mario Götze to Bayern Munich, while revealing his knowledge of UK tabloids.

“She (his wife) wrote a book for children. It’s like Harry Potter – but it’s about football. There’s no Harry Potter flying on his fucking stick – just football.”
- Telling it as it is (above quotes via interview with The Guardian, here)

“I got more in life than I was ever supposed to get – family, money, football. None of my teachers, or my parents, ever believed this would happen to me. So how can this perfect life of mine be spoilt because they take our players?
- Refusing to let the sale of his star players get to him. Or is he?

“My whole life as an adult Alex Ferguson was coach of Manchester United. I only know this club with him as a coach. It’s unbelievable what he’s done. I never had the time, nor the possibility to go to Manchester United and watch training. I worked as a coach and never had the time to go see what others are doing. It’s one of the biggest stories in the history of football. I don’t think anyone will ever do that again. He’s a great manager and really it’s not possible to do twice what he did there. Or something similar.
- His view on former Manchester United manager Alex Ferguson.

“I show my team very often Barcelona but not the way they play. Just the way they celebrate goals. Goal no 5768 in the last few weeks and they go ‘Yeeeess’ like they never scored a goal. This is what I love about football. That’s what you have to feel all the time. Until you die. And then everything is OK.”
- How Klopp motivates his team (above quotes via The Sun, here)

“We want to fight for our life,” he says. “We want to make our parents proud. We want to do everything we can do to win this final. If we win, we are not best team in the world – but we beat the best team in world!”
- Via The Daily Telegraph, here

• All mouth and no trousers? Find out the latest odds on Bayern v Dortmund at Paddy Power.

The towels are already down at Wembley because the Champions League final on May 25 is an all German affair. Borussia Dortmund face their native rivals Bayern Munich who are trying to bounce back from two defeats in the last three years, and in doing so complete a historic treble.

Plenty of punters did their dough on the Champions League this year with the well-fancied Manchester City failing to win any of their group games and generally being as useful in Europe as a 20 pence piece. Hotly-backed Manchester United, Real Madrid and Barcelona all crashed out as well leaving punters ruing their faith in Nani’s creativity.

Luckily Paddy Power is here to ensure you don’t make any mistakes when it gets to the big final on May 25.

This weekend Bayern Munich travel to Borussia Dortmund in a Champions League final dress rehearsal on Saturday night. The game might not mean much in terms of the league, with Bayern Munich crowned champions weeks ago, but it could prove to be a handy betting pointer ahead of the final.

If you place an in-running bet of up to €10 (or £10 depending which side of the waters you reside)  on the match, Paddy Power will match that as a free bet for you to use on the Champions League final.

It’s like using a practice go on an episode of the cube but instead of standing in a silly box throwing balls around you get to lie on your couch eating pizza and watching football. Plus you have the added bonus of not having to deal with Philip Scholfield and his slimy charm.

This is your opportunity to build your knowledge ahead of the final and get a free bet along the way. To help you out with your £10 in-running bet on Saturday, here are a few key facts from the last six head to head meetings.

• There have been 15 goals in the last six games, but only a couple of the matches had over 2.5 goals
• Robert Lewandowski has five goals in those six games
• There have been 16 yellow cards and no early baths. That’s an average of 2.6 cautions a game which is under 30 points on the card index
• Three penalties have been awarded in the six games, with two scored and one missed
• On three occasions the teams went in scoreless at the break with the average time of the first goal at 44 minutes

There’s no excuses not to be on the ball when it comes to the Champions League final after this opportunity to get a practice in. A free bet along the way is an incentive that only a crazy person would turn down. To help you out even more Paddy is streaming this weekend’s Bundesliga game live on PPtv.

Now you have no excuse for watching X Factor on Saturday night.

• Find out all the odds for the Champions League final
  

Terms and conditions

The maximum free bet is £10/€10 and only one per customer
Minimum Odds 1/2
First bet must be placed on an in-running market during the Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich match on Saturday May 4 2013
The free bet will be credited to your account by midnight on Saturday May 4 2013
The free bet is valid up to 7.45pm on Saturday May 25 2013 and must be used on the Champions League final match between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund
The free bet is not available in-running on the Champions League final 2013

There’ll be a lot of talk about the rise of German football and a changing of the guard but for tonight let’s just sit back, admire Bayern Munich’s play and marvel at that scoreline.

Here’s a sample of the reactions from the Twitter-sphere.

I think it is much to say that without Messi Barca really suffer. I think you have to look a little deeper.Is the coach ready for this level.

— Tommy Smyth (@TommySmythESPN) May 1, 2013

So Bayern about to be taken over by the guy whose philosophy they have just consigned to history….

— Mark Ogden (@MOgdenTelegraph) May 1, 2013

Wow. A power shift in the footballing world and my pre tournament bet on Bayern at 12-1 is looking good! — michael owen (@themichaelowen) May 1, 2013

#Championsleague Finale 2013 ve Barcelona & Real Madrid twitter.com/Elmander_9/sta… — Johan Elmander (@Elmander_9) May 1, 2013

Barcelona have been on the end of a drubbing. They have been drubbed. Drub! Only time you ever hear the word. — Danny Baker (@prodnose) May 1, 2013

John Giles: ‘I think the coach has betrayed the traditions of Barcelona in the way he picked the team and the way they played’ #RTEsoccer — RTÉ Soccer (@RTEsoccer) May 1, 2013

Get in! 90000 towels will be on the seats of wembley!!!

— robert huth (@robert_huth) May 1, 2013

LIONEL MESSI: Making goal-scoring look ridiculously easy since 2005

By Aidan Elder | Chief sports writer

With Barcelona, the unbelievable never seems far away, but needing a 4-0 win over Bayern Munich just to prolong their interest in the Champions League for another half an hour, this challenge seems beyond them.

Defeat in Bavaria wasn’t the greatest of shocks, but the margin of the spanking and the uncharacteristic bluntness of Barca’s play was. In contrast to their Clasico rivals, Barcelona’s glimmers of hope are much thinner and fainter than Real Madrid’s. No away goal leaves the Catalan giants with a task more difficult than liking Sergio Busquets.

If it was anyone else you could forget all about it and settle in for the Watchdog’s fascinating investigation into the high cost of water charges for British households, but – sorry Anne – the ginger Chris Tarrant will have to wait. This is Barca at the Nou Camp and the stake hasn’t been driven through their heart just yet. The permutations call for some unfounded optimism, but at least they have some permutations, which is a start. Here’s home some of the results would affect Barca:

• 4-0 win = Extra time
• 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1, 3-2, 4-1, 4-2 (etc) = Barca out, egos dented
• 5-1, 6-2, 7-3, 8-4 = all very impressive, but it still means Barca are out
• 5-0, 6-0, 7-0, 6-1, 7-1, 7-2 (or any result where Bayern score at least one away goal, but Barca win by five or more goals) = unlikely as it is, it would put Barca through in normal time

While other teams would already be working on their ‘oh well, we gave it our best, but it was just too much’, the sheer volume of trashings they’ve handed at the Nou Camp give rise for possibly ill-advised confidence. Since Pep Guardiola took over in 2008 and into the reign of Tito Vilanova, Barca have won 26 per cent of all their home games by margins that would get them at least extra time against Bayern. In 150 games, they’ve managed the scoreline they need (4-0, 5-0, 6-1, 6-0 etc) on an impressive 39 occasions.

If you are clutching at the straws you need to base your Barca hopes on, there is some good news – the straws exist. Yes the bulk of the hammerings that Los Cules have handed out at the Camp Nou have been to weaker domestic rivals, but they’ve also got some major scalps in the mix, including –rather interestingly – that of Bayern Munich. Some of the more notable results include:

• 5-0 v Real Madrid (2010)
• 6-1 v Atletico Madrid (2008)
• 5-0 v Atletico Madrid (2011)
• 4-0 v Valencia (2008)
• 4-0 v Bayern Munich (2009)
• 4-0 v AC Milan (2013)
• 4-0 v Sevilla x 3 (2009, 2010, 2010)
• 5-0 v Sevilla (2010)
• 5-0 v Villarreal (2011)

One thing is clear from that list – Sevilla must hate rocking up to Barcelona. The other, most important thing that becomes clear is that Barca are more than capable of opening a can of whup-ass on some decent teams. A large part of the aforementioned 26 per cent are minnows and candle-makers from Andalusia, but the presence of Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, Valencia, Bayern and only a few weeks back, AC Milan, shows Barcelona are capable of getting the result they need to keep the tie alive at least until extra time.

It doesn’t look good for Barca. Saying anything else is as pointless as placing a lot of faith in one of Guillem Balgue’s ‘exclusive’ transfer rumours. An away goal for Bayern and Barca would need to score six to go through and you’d have to think they’re toast. They’re 22/1 to get the 4-0 win that would take the game to extra time and 10/1 to qualify for the final. It’s very unlikely, but Barca have a track record of achieving the unlikely. Now would be a good time to prove it.

Barca are up against, but find out about the wide range of markets available on the match

This tie looks deader than Rolf Harris’ children’s party business but even if Real Madrid fail to score the goals they need at the Bernabeu to overturn the 4-1 deficit and Borussia Dortmund go through as expected, there’s still some betting to be done. Plus as Aidan discusses in his preview of the game, that one away goal scored by Cristiano Ronaldo in the first leg provides a glimmer of hope. Albeit a faint one.

Here’s a quick look at five bets which are still worth considering even if Real fail to claw their way back in to the tie.

1: Both teams to score in 90 minutes at 1/2

This is short priced selection and may be one for the accumulators if you’re not a big-money-short-price kind of gambler. Only three times in their last 17 games in all competitions have both teams not scored. Real Madrid’s 3-0 win over Galatasaray was their only Champions League this season in which both teams haven’t scored. Borussia Dortmund have been kept scoreless just three times across all competitions this season.

2: Cristiano Ronaldo and Robert Lewandowski both to score in 90 minutes at 9/4 4/1

They both scored in the first game and with nothing to lose for the home side, expect them to go on the attack from the start. This will leave plenty of space at the back for Dortmund to exploit. Ronaldo has scored 51 goals in 50 games this season, 12 in 11 Champions League games and has notched 11 goals in his last 10 games. Lewandowski has 35 goals in 43 games this season, 10 in 11 Champions League games and has also notched 11 in his last ten games.

POWERPLAY: Ronaldo and Lewandowski both to score anytime (90 mins only) 4/1 – Best Price

• Web: BET HERE Mobile: BET HERE

3: First goal to be scored before the 21st minute at 10/11

Real Madrid’s need to score at least three goals should ensure a fast start to this game and an early goal looks a solid bet. Plus there has been a goal before the 21st minute in each of Dortmund’s last four games and seven of Real Madrid’s last nine.

4: Real Madrid to win and both teams to score at 17/10

Theses two sides have played three times in this competition already both teams have scoring in all three games. See bet number 1 above for more stats on this part of the bet. Madrid are the 4/6 favourites to win in 90 minutes and Jose Mourinho’s side are unbeaten in all competitions at the Bernabeu this season

5: Over 3.5 goals in 90 minutes at 11/10

There is something of a precedent set with the 2-2 draw these teams shared in Madrid during the group stages. But I sense you need more. There have been four or more goals in four of Real’s last six games and there have also been four or more goals in 4 of Borussia’s last 6 games. It’s no guarantee but it looks a decent bet all the same.

• Betting: Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund
• Betting: Champions League Outright

If it was anyone else, you’d pluck the feathers from this dead duck and stick it in the oven. Three goals and a gulf in enthusiasm, energy and class separated them in the first leg and it’s hard to see that changing in the return match.

But this is Real Madrid and the Special One. In front of the often fickle but always vocal stands of the Bernabau, you get the nagging feeling they’re not quite out of it. As Robert Lewandowski’s penalty thumped into the net, it was impossible not to think it would be the Borussia Dortmund players posing for not especially funny photos of them beside stationary beefeaters of the British capital in about a month’s time. They still look hot favourites to do it, but maybe it’s worth not writing the obituaries for Real’s campaign just yet.

The away goal is vital. It means Real have a variety of possible scorelines that will extend their faint hopes until they get dashed at a later point. The brief and somewhat comprehensive list of the scores and how they affect Real is as follows:

• 3-0, 4-0, 5-0 (and any other to nil scoreline that’s more than three) = Go through in normal time
• 4-1 = Extra time
• 5-1, 6-1, 7-1, 8-1 (and other scores involving at least one Dortmund away goal, but a winning margin of four or more goals for Real) = Go through in normal time
• 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-1, 4-2, 4-3, 5-2, 6-3 (etc., etc.) = Real out, Jose cries, we all laugh
• Any draw = useless as asking Cristiano Ronaldo to pass to a team-mate

Some of them looking rather reasonable, mainly the 3-0, but also the 4-1 that would take it to extra time. That’s not beyond the realms of possibility. Under Mourinho, Real have made something of a habit of handing out hidings to visitors to the Bernabau. Since the Special One’s arrival in 2010, Real have won 49% of their home games by a margin that would guarantee them at least extra time on Tuesday evening. Namely, that’s a score of 3-0 or better, 4-1 or any win by a margin of four or more goals. Not quite simples, but not quite impossibles either.

The major issue is the quality of opponent. Just because you can beat a bunch of fisherman from the Basque country 10-0 in the Copa Del Rey doesn’t mean you can do the same to a Dortmund team superior even to the team who won the Champions League in 1997. Measuring the strength of teams is subjective and a task as tricky as nailing Cristiano’s hair gel to the wall, but one thing you can say about the quality of opposition that Real have put to the sword under Mourinho is ‘they’re not great’. The phrase ‘flat-track bullies’ might do Real a disservice, but not the biggest of disservices.

Domestically, they’ve also given occasionally decent teams like Athletic Bilbao, Sevilla, Espanyol and Deportivo some hidings, but those teams have been up and down like Wayne Rooney’s weight. In the theoretically more difficult environs of Europe, they have given Ajax and Lyon a couple of trouncings each, but again it’s a time when both clubs have been well below their Champions League peak and what some euphemistically call, ‘in transition’. Still though, 41 home wins by a margin of 3-0 or better is none too shabby. Teams they’ve beaten by scorelines that would get them extra time or better under Mourinho include:

• Athletic Bilbao x 3 (5-1, 4-1, 5-1)
• Lyon x 2 (3-0, 4-0)
• Sevilla x 2 (3-0, 4-1)
• Ajax x 2 (3-0, 4-1)
• Espanyol x 2 (3-0, 5-0)
• Deportivo x 2 (6-1, 5-1)

Add to the mix Tottenham (4-0), Malaga (7-0), Atletico Madrid (4-1), CSKA Moscow (4-1) and most recently, Galatasaray (3-0) and you’ve got a decent, if not thoroughly convincing, bit of evidence to justify your vague optimism. Not bad, but also not on the same level of a rampant Dortmund team.

There is hope, but there’s also the opportunity top blithely dismiss that hope if it suits your ends. Real are currently 3/1 to qualify for the final from this bleak position. If it was virtually anyone else, those odds would be substantially higher. Real and Jose have shown they’re capable of doing what it takes when the occasion requires. That’s what makes them Special.

Have a browse of all the latest Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund odds here

European football expert Graham Hunter (@bumpergraham) is predicting Real Madrid’s experience and composure will prove key in getting a positive result in tonight’s Champions League semi-final with Borussia Dortmund in Germany.

If it’s not to be a complete Bundesliga domination of this week’s Champions League semi finals then, ironically, Real Madrid might depend on a German to restore some La Liga pride.

Mesut Ozil has become a world class footballer under Jose Mourinho. He arrived in Spain as a young man of patent talent but the physical training at Madrid has not only completely altered his stamina (no longer is it a trademark that he’s subbed after 70 minutes) but given him significantly more top-body strength with which to hold off challenges and to buy himself space.

But, more than that, this game is a local derby against ‘the enemy’ for him. Born 35 minutes away from the Dortmund’s amazing Signal Iduna Park and originally a Schalke 04 youth talent, Ozil has always loved a tussle with the ScharzGelb (Black and Yellow).

How Ozil became the key man

Perhaps there’s something Pavlovian about the German midfielder’s response to facing Dortmund but having shone against them domestically for Schalke and Bremen, Özil was then probably the stand-out performer in the two Group D games between the sides earlier this season.

Away from home,  admittedly in defeat,  his was the clever lofted assist-pass which helped Cristiano Ronaldo score almost instantly after going behind to Robert Lewandowski’s opener.

In the return match it was the Real Madrid No 10 whose left-footed cross dropped perfectly for Pepe to head home the first equaliser and, again, it was Özil who squared the game in the last seconds thanks to a daring free kick which slid in at Roman Weidenfeller’s left hand post.

Again on the positive side for the reigning Spanish champions Ronaldo is on the most powerful, convincing and enjoyable form of his entire career. Beyond all the normal talent, power, height, free kicks, pace and heading ability there’s no missing the fact that since the Ballon D’Or went to Leo Messi in January the Portuguese has quietly got on with dominating Spanish football and putting himself in a position to rob Messi of the Champions League top scorer award for the first time in five seasons.

What’s more, he’s also a more complete team player than ever before. Previously there were uneven comparisons between Ronaldo and Messi in terms of goal assists but, again, CR7 has begun to close the gap and has been generous this season, in La Liga and the Champions League, in giving goals to Benzema, Higuain (who’ll start tonight) Ozil and Di Maria.

On that subject Mourinho will use Diego: Ramos, Pepe, Varane, Coentrao, Alonso, Khedira, Di Maria, Ozil, Ronaldo and Higuain tonight.

Pepe is the weak link

One man who’ll have to completely change his level of performance from the group games is Pepe. He gave away possession, allowed a shot to go right under his boot and was outjumped by Robert Lewandowski for three of the four goals in Group D which gave Jurgen Klopp’s team a win and a draw.

Important to Madrid in terms of height, power and pace Pepe is also a player who is notoriously capable of losing concentration and of losing his head. It will be a volatile atmosphere at Signal Iduna, Lewandowski says he’s fully fit and this is going to be a test for the Portugal international.

If he improves from his last two meetings with Dortmund and if Ozil and Ronaldo hit their marks then Madrid have the chance of taking a score draw back to Spain.

Dortmund merit respect for being quick, technical, smart, confident, well coached and terrifically well supported. However it’s possible that, tonight, experience and timing are slightly more in Madrid’s favour than a couple of months ago.

Malaga showed that Dortmund are vulnerable to the counter attack,  Mario Gotze’s transfer to Bayern being announced can’t help and, perhaps, the gap between the sides which was evident late last year has narrowed a little.

Betting: Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid

VIDEO: Watch for Graham Hunter’s tips on Dortmund v Real Madrid

UNSTOPPABLE? Bayern Munich are the red-hot favourites for the Champions League

Tika-taka has died. Take back Lionel Messi’s Ballon D’Ors. The greatest team of this generation is finished. Enter your own wild over-reactions here because Bayern Munich absolutely thumped Barcelona 4-0 in the Champions League semi-final first leg at the Allianz Arena.

The Germans lost on penalties after battering Chelsea for 120 minutes in the final last year and have taken a huge step to healing that wound by tearing Barca a new one on Tuesday night.

Thomas Muller bagged a brace with a Mario Gomez tap in and Arjen Robben goal sandwiched in-between. You can see every goal in super animated GIF form here, although if you’re Tito Vilanova it is probably best to look away.

The Catalan side recovered from a 2-0 loss in the first leg against AC Milan in the second round but this is a much more difficult challenge in Paddy Power’s book. The boss has assured us all that this is the end of Barcelona and they are a massive 25/1 to win the Champions League.

Bayern are the 5/6 favourites for the competition as they eye up a historic German treble with a domestic cup final on the horizon and the Bundesliga trophy already in the cabinet.

Champions League outright

5/6 Bayern Munich
2/1 Real Madrid
11/2 Borussia Dortmund
25/1 Barcelona

• Betting: Champions League outright
  

The German side took the lead against the Spanish giants in their Champions League semi-final first leg in the 25th minute at the Allianz Arena. Thomas Muller nodded them in front with his 18th goal in all competitions this season and it was exactly what Bayern deserved for a bright opening.

Mario Gomez had the simplest of jobs to knock in the second just after half-time as Barca proved how vulnerable they are in a game of ‘heads and volleys’. Arjen Robben, who was unrecognisable after spending 90 minutes passing and tackling, slotted a third past Victor Valdes as Jordi Alber was flattened off the ball.

The free-scoring Germans weren’t finished there and with less than ten minutes to play Muller slid in his second from close range to all but put Barca out of the Champions League.

Barcelona look out of sorts on a pitch that has been watered enough to slow down their passing game, but not watered enough to aid Sergio Busquets‘ diving. Lionel Messi has been largely anonymous but unfortunately the same can’t be said for Adrian Chiles who  still bumbled through some vague analysis before and after the match.

The thought of Chiles trying to prevent Roy Keane ripping Gareth Southgate’s tongue out while making some ‘hilarious pun’ about German efficiency is soul-crushing. That ITV panel is just a Mark Lawrenson away from causing serious depression amongst football fans.

So to save you watching their analysis on the highlights watch these lovely GIFs of the Bayern goals.

• Betting: Champions League outright
  

1-0

2-0

3-0

4-0

European football expert and red-hot tipster Graham Hunter is predicting tonight’s Champions League semi-final between Bayern Munich and Barcelona to end all square.

{Find out Graham’s 12/1 tip by scrolling down and watching the video} 

There’s an old saying from the hard-boiled private detective fiction of  Raymond Chandler and his cronies which I love – “If you hear the sound of hooves coming, don’t look for zebras – it’ll be horses”.

Those writers used it to say ‘don’t look beyond the obvious suspect’ and perhaps it applies to Bayern v Barça tonight.

The Bavarians have stomped all over their domestic competition and gave Juve a slapping in the last round.

Barça are full of incognitos (is Busquets fully recovered from his groin strain? Is Messi properly fit for his explosive bursts of genius? Who will play alongside Piqué? Bartra? Abidal?) and they’ve played without their old intensity in the second half of this season.

So, perhaps it’s stupid to look for a zebra when we are going to see a horse?

Many of the shrewd bets must favour the home team. But I think there are some minor indications that the nag might be sporting one or two stripes tonight.

Barça haven’t lost in Germany for eleven years – five wins and three draws in that time.

Barça love to face teams who are going to give them a game – Philip Lahm’s words about going toe-to-toe with Tito Vilanova’s side will be very welcome. They get SO sick of having to unpick defences with ten men behind the ball all the time.

Teams who attack them give them spaces – and chances. If Messi is firing on all cylinders then, obviously, he’s the banker bet to exploit them.

However I like Pedro – quick, a deceptively good finisher and with a couple of recent big goals (against PSG and France) to his name. It was actually against this keeper, Manuel Neuer, he learned a big lesson. World Cup semi final 2010, through one on one and with Fernando Torres alone beside him Pedro tried to round the keeper, his studs slipped on the arid African pitch and the chance for 2-0 was gone. Coaches for Spain and then Pep Guardiola advised him to shoot hard, low and early in similar circumstances. He’s done it and perhaps he´ll come full circle tonight.

If you are betting in-play then watch Busquets. Against PSG, both games, he was wildly out of form and Barça were far the worse for it. If that groin strain has fully healed and he fires on all cylinders the Spanish league leaders function much better, simple as that. In fact if he does fire up, I’d back them not to lose. Vice versa too.

The ref? Viktor Kassai is a straight shooter. Barça won’t be looking to him for favours. But this is a guy who brings good memories for them – that 1-0 Spain v Germany World Cup semi final (no bookings and no reds in the entire match), a red card for Paul Pogba for stamping on Xavi’s ankle in that Spain 1-0 France match last month, the Champions League final of 2011 when he took an hour to book anyone and Barça’s 4-0 win over Milan this season when, again, only four bookings (one for Barça, Pedro).

To Kassai’s great credit he seems to blend southern and northern European reffing styles – a rarity.

A fine game, Bayern deserve to start favourites, both teams to score. Four goals shared. Enjoy.

• Betting: Bayern Munich v Barcelona
  

FourFourTom debates the Luis Suarez situation at Liverpool and suggests two players who could replace him IF he decides to leave…

If you were to extend the question ‘Is Luis Suarez a world class footballer?’ to a room of neutral football fans, the divide would be almost inexplicable. In the minds of half of the room he’d be regarded as a supremely talented and almost otherwordly footballer, whilst the other half would use the cloud of negatives surrounding him off the field to somehow make a case that he isn’t a fantastic player on it.

There doesn’t seem to be any kind of middle ground – and I believe Suarez thrives on that.

Based on the past 12 months for both club and country it’s impossible to argue his credentials as a top class player and, if it were up to me, he’d be handed the Premier League Player Of The Year award without a second thought. The problem here for Liverpool is that world-class players want to be competing against world class opposition and winning the biggest trophies with the biggest clubs, not finishing 7th or 8th.

Liverpool are rebuilding

Whilst Liverpool are a massive club, they’re  going through a rebuilding phase and aren’t matching up to the level at which the Uruguayan should be playing. In my opinion, playing for Liverpool is holding him back. If he was to move to Bayern Munich, for example, it’s likely he’d win every trophy on offer within the next three seasons.

Where this debate gets really interesting, though, is if you consider this: is Suarez possibly holding Liverpool back in the same way?

Don’t get me wrong and think I’m questioning Suarez’s contribution to the Liverpool team here, because that’s one thing I’m certainly not doing. If anything, I’m suggesting he’s perhaps expected to do too much.

As I mentioned previously, Liverpool are rebuilding after a few disappointing seasons. The additions of Daniel Sturridge and Philippe Coutinho have proved to be astute purchases and have added much-needed dynamism in the final third, but they still seem far too dependent on Suarez creating a moment of magic.

When you’ve got a player of such enormous quality the temptation is always to play through them too much, which can ultimately prove detrimental to the team as a unit. A good example of this is Zlatan Ibrahimovic (pictured above) with the Swedish national team – despite him being a national icon, many Swedes believe the team play better football when their tactics don’t just involve getting the ball to Zlatan.

It’s safe to assume Liverpool would receive a massive fee if they were to sell, but it’s unrealistic to think they could go out and splash this money on a replacement of equal quality. They have a rare breed of player in Suarez as he’s both a top class scorer and creator, which makes it incredibly difficult to replace him with one player.

Reds should look again to Eredivisie

For this reason, it could be advantageous for the balance of the team to bring in one player for each distinct role, rather than one player who does everything. To find these two players, Liverpool should be looking exactly where they found Suarez back in 2011 – the Eredivisie.

Ajax’s highly-rated Danish playmaker Christian Eriksen has been heavily linked recently and the fact his contract is running down means his club have to sell him on the cheap to avoid losing him for nothing. His price has been reported as around £15million, which is an absolute steal. Couple Eriksen’s creativity and guile in the centre of the pitch with a crafty wide man who’s capable of getting on the scoresheet and it’s arguable that Liverpool could actually benefit from letting Suarez go. If you were to ask me to name a player for the wide role, I’d go for PSV’s Dries Mertens, who has 13 goals and 14 assists in 27 appearances this season and scored 21 goals in the 2011/2012 season.

The beauty of looking to the Eredivisie is that the wages of top players are miniscule in comparison to those of players in Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, etc, but they’re still more than capable of improving Liverpool’s team. Over the past decade or so, Liverpool have brought some of their best players in from the Netherlands – the likes of Jerzy Dudek, Dirk Kuyt and Sami Hyypia, to name a few.

The dream for Liverpool…

Obviously the dream scenario for Liverpool is to keep hold of their star man Suarez, as well as adding a player such as Eriksen or Mertens to alleviate the weight on his shoulders, but the fact remains that Suarez is too good to be playing outside the Champions League. The call of one of Europe’s top clubs may be too much to resist. Whether they keep him or not, I believe Liverpool have the potential to come back as a stronger side next season and could even get back into the mixer for the much sought-after Champions League places.

• Betting: Premier League Liverpool v Chelsea
• @FourFourTom on Bale, Platini, Arsenal… and more 

European football expert Graham Hunter explains that there are major concerns for Barcelona in their Champions League quarter-final, but why Cesc Fabregas should be backed to continue his red-hot form.

Right now everyone is waiting to see whether or not Leo Messi starts against PSG. Just for the moment I’m far more interested in another kind of weighting. Sometimes the force of pre-match opinion stems from unassailable facts and it’s true to say that, at the Camp Nou, and with two away goals, history favours FC Barcelona.

But there are major provisos.

The weighting, or handicapping, which the Champions League and the natural ageing process have introduced to this tie make it fascinating – and risky for the home team.

To explain. There have been times when Barcelona have not simply been divine to watch, they’ve been an absolute brute to play against.

Particularly during the heights of Pep Guardiola’s reign I loved the mixed zone after the match. You’d interview Barcelona’s opponents and, well before praising the Blaugrana, they’d explain to you what a horrible experience it was when you didn’t have a millisecond to think, not a blink of the eye to just ensure the ball was properly controlled.

Playing Barcelona was like trying to compose a classical symphony in a kids’ nursery – constant harassment, increasing irritability, total futility.

Not now. In each of the four seasons when Barça have won this competition they’ve conceded two goals or fewer across all four quarter-final and semi-final matches.

The two conceded at Parc des Princes indicates that, historically, if Barça ship even one more goal then they are in big trouble.

So, is there something to worry about? Yes. Here’s the weighting.

MASCHERANO AND PUYOL: Neither man will feature in the Nou Camp this evening

• Carles Puyol has always defied his lack of height, always brought that little bit of extra ‘the badge matters’ to Barça’s displays. But he’s out.
• Javier Mascherano is often, albeit not always, a useful deputy at centre back and was a star performer in the 4-0 win over AC Milan last time. He’s out.
• Tito Vilanova, just back from cancer treatment in New York, needs to choose between Marc Bartra, Alex Song, Adriano, Busquets and Uncle Tom Cobbley when he chooses Gerard Piqué’s playing partner.

Meanwhile, there’s no escaping that PSG not only possess players to attack the ball aerially with extreme skill and power, they can also call on a number of footballers who use the ball well when putting the ball into the penalty box.

Moreover, Barça’s other kryptonite, pace, is something which PSG have to a reasonable degree. Lucas, particularly, is blindingly quick and Ezequiel Lavezzi has more savvy about when to counter attack than he has blistering pace. But sometimes it’s all about the first few metres in your head, not your feet.

So while Barcelona are at home, have two away goals, possess a terrific Champions League record at the Camp Nou and can boast a handful of World Champions (Xavi, Iniesta, Pedro, Victor Valdés, Busquets, David Villa, Cesc Fabregas and Piqué) there are a couple of specifics in the PSG locker which alter the handicapping.

IF Messi doesn’t start, and he patently wants to given the extra training, extra physio and extra recuperation work he´s undertaken since last week, then Barça are reduced from, I’d still say, the best in the world to a very good team.

IF, into the bargain, PSG have one of those nights when the ball is used well and Alex, Thiago Silva and Zlatan keep winning it in the air then we could have quite a tie.

AB FAB: Cesc Fabregas is on a hot streak and is worth a few quid to score

To the meat.

Cesc Fabregas is, in my opinion, a streak scorer. Not prolific, prolific, but it´s the case that his five-a-side background has made him a very efficient, silky finisher.

And while he talks with a great deal of self-assurance, I’m of the opinion that his self belief fluctuates. Hence the reason he scores in bursts. Get one goal – four or five follow.

The stats tell the story. Four in four in August and September 20007, five in four in December and January 09/10, four in four during February and March 2010, five in four with Barça August and September 2011 then four in three across December and January 2012. Following his first hat trick and two assists at the weekend, back him to score and or assist tonight.

Having said that PSG looked capable of scoring again at the Camp Nou when Alex, Thiago Silva and Zlatan won the ball in the air from set-plays and open play. Lavezzi, too, will feed off the knockdowns the Swede will provide him. Perm through and pick one of them for a goal.

• Betting: Barcelona v PSG
  

Juventus v Bayern Munich

Juventus? They simply didn’t show up last week. But Antonio Conte has been firing his men up to fever pitch. He’s told them that Bayern Munich dived in the first tie, that Franz Beckenbuer insulted Gigi Buffon and that Juve embarrassed themselves.

Way to stoke up an atmosphere!

Bayern were limited in their Bundesliga title celebrations on Saturday but, even so, there is often a ‘hangover’. I take Juve to sneak a win, Vucnic to score and Spanish referee Velasco Carballo to be pushed into breaking his record of never having shown a red card in his 29 Uefa ties thus far.

• Betting: Juventus v Bayern Munich
  

European football expert Graham Hunter previews tonight’s Champions League quarter final between moneybags PSG and runaway La Liga leaders Barcelona.

Champions League | PSG v Barcelona

It should be simple enough to predict Paris St Germain’s most likely avenues to score at home to FC Barcelona tonight.

In Thiago Silva (who scored a headed equaliser for Milan at the Camp Nou last season), Alex and Zlatan, Carlo Ancelotti’s side have three players perfectly able to take advantage of the fact that Barça have perpetually lost goals or goal assists to headers inside the box this season.

More specifically, the Spanish champions-elect consistently allow crosses too easily from their left back position and Dani Alves, who is having an absolutely exceptional season in an attacking sense, continually fails to order his centre halves to take a couple of steps towards the back post.

The Brazilian, instead, will dive into the penalty spot melee (usually to little effect given that he’s … little) and the crossed ball will drop to an opponent hovering or arriving at the back post to create or score a goal.

There has been a lot of delightful, Machiavellian ‘did he, didn’t he’ in the Spanish media this week about whether Jose Mourinho volunteered to supply Ancelotti with Real Madrid’s ‘golden’ scouting manual which over the last few weeks was sufficient to inspire Los Blancos to a 3-1 Camp Nou win and a 2-1 home victory in La Liga.

How to score against Barcelona

Lesson No 1: Punt the ball long from the edge of your own penalty box to a runner in the wide positions (Di Maria or Ronaldo for Madrid) Lavezzi or Lucas for PSG) and then support him more quickly than Barça get back for the perfect breakaway goal.

Lesson No 2:  exploit Barcelona’s aerial vulnerability.

Did the Special One send the document? ‘Oh yes he did … OH NO HE DIDN’T…’ that’s been the enjoyable tone over the last few days.

However even for a project in construction PSG must have scouts capable of doing their own homework and these conclusions won’t have been hard to draw.

In reality, the counter attack goal is just a version of what PSG inflicted on Valencia at the Mestalla in the last round. They could have won by five or six (had Lavezzi who is their top scorer in the Champions League not missed a hat-trick of chances) and they looked viciously dangerous. However, at home, PSG flirted with going out and Valencia ruled the night.

As for Barça if you favour them to win away then take into account that their record since 2006 reads –winners-last 16, semi final-winners-semi final-winners-semi final ….

The Hurt Locker

Losing 2-0 at Milan in the opening-leg of the last round hurt them terribly badly and I’d expect a higher tempo, physically more robust display tonight.

Good though PSG are on their day, and while they own players who threaten Barça’s specific weaknesses they don’t often encounter players of the calibre of Iniesta, Xavi, Villa, Messi and Alba. Messi has 50 goals and 15 assists in his last 50 Champions League appearances. I take him to add another of one or other (goal or assist) and Barça to get a 2-2 draw.

Those who follow such things might note that referee Wolfgang Stark has sent off a couple of Barça players (Saviola and Motta back in 2004 against Celtic) but he’s also red-carded three opponents Rab Douglas, Pepe and Alberto Aquilani and awarded Barça a penalty last time out in Milan.

Four of the seven times he’s reffed a Barça game have yielded a total of only 13 bookings total but Stark’s only time out with PSG the game held eight yellow cards. Make of that what you will. There’s a Parisian threat for Barça here, no doubt, but perhaps they know how to take the right result home this time?

• Betting: PSG v Barcelona 
• Graham Hunter: Bayern are chokers and here’s why Juventus will get a draw
  

European football expert Graham Hunter previews tonight’s Champions League quarter final as last season’s beaten finalists Bayern Munich take on Juventus.

Champions League: Bayern Munich v Juventus

The home side have galloped away with the Bundesliga title – it should be formalised this weekend.

A vicious seven-goal winning margin (9-2) over Hamburg last weekend, added to the fact that Juventus go to the Allianz Arena where last season’s beaten finalists thirst for victory like a lost explorer craves a beer in the Sahara – well it’s a fait accompli, isn’t it Guv?

Bayern not only to win but to give the Italian champions a chasing. Well, possibly, but I’m a little wary.

Munich probably have better players on balance but Juventus, watch out people, are an outstanding team.

To go unbeaten while winning Serie A then to cope while the coach is suspended for the first half of the season and still establish comfortable elbow-room at the top of the Scudetto while flourishing in the Champions League. This, too, is no mean feat.

Schweinsteiger will have his hands full

One of the absolute keys to supremacy tonight is where having superior numbers matters most.

To explain.  Juve will probably finesse their usual 3-5-2 formation and ask Marchisio to be the link man in a 3-5-1-1 behind Vucnic. It means that there will be times in midfield when Bayern’s four-man strike force (perm four from Thomas Muller, Toni Kroos, Franck Ribery and Arjen Robben) in the 4-2-3-1 formation will give them superiority over Juve’s three-man backline of Chiellini, Bonucci and Barzagli.

However, particularly with Javi Martinez suspended, there will also be times when the defensive, organising element of Bayern’s midfield, probably Luis Gustavo and Bastien Schweinsteiger, may find themselves working against five or six men – Peluso, Pogba, Pirlo, Vidal, Lichsteiner and Marchisio when he drops back to scavenge.

Which numerical superiority will hand supremacy in the match?

I’ve heaps of respect for how organised, hungry and domineering Bayern have been in Jupp Heynckes’ final season – but here’s my slight concern.

They may well win tonight but another obstacle they face is one we’ve seen rear its ugly head in recent years.

Fatal attraction

Once, particularly in the stellar days of Beckenbauer, Breitner, Maier, Roth and Muller you could count on Bayern (and the German national team) to be both ruthless and incredibly cold-eyed. Show them a weakness and opponents were buried. Think you’ve got them on the rack and like Glenn Close in Fatal Attraction they’d rise from the floor and get hands round your throat.

Not now. Bayern fluffed the 2010 final, basically not showing up against Inter Milan and were biblically wasteful of chances to win last May against Chelsea. The national team (often containing large numbers of this side like Lahm, Neuer, Muller, Schweini and Kroos) have been perpetual semi-finalists or finalists since World Cup 2006 (where they lost to Italy) right up to Euro 2012 (when they lost to Italy).

It’s a common phenomenon in sport to see talented chokers. I wasn’t impressed by how easily they were gifted a 3-1 lead at Arsenal last round … or how easily a wounded Arsenal side carved out a 2-0 away win in the second leg.

These are two absolute greats of European football but this is their first ever knock-out meeting. The record so far is Juve 3 wins, Bayern 2 wins and a draw.

But the stakes tonight are higher than in any of the previous six meetings since Group A in winter 2004 – mentality, nerve and psychology will all play their parts tonight and next week.

Favourites –yes, okay, Bayern. Great to watch – yes, okay, Bayern. Juventus – dangerous and a very good bet to score and draw. Enjoy.

• Betting: Bayern Munich v Juventus 
• Betting: Champions League outright