It’s an all-German affair in Wembley at the FA’s 150th birthday celebrations which is slightly uncomfortable for all concerned, but the alternative would have been having the Special One smugging things up and trying to steal all the limelight for himself. Yes, it’s every hipsters favourite Borussia Dortmund versus everyone’s favourite over-confident Bavarians, Bayern Munich.

If you’re out and about, unable to get to a TV or in the early stages of a promising relationship and have to watch a Hugh Grant rom-com rather than the football, I’ll be hear to keep you up to date with all the latest goings-on and Andy Townsend bashing.

Feel free to give me a shout with your own observations, queries or Andy Townsend bashing via the comments section below or on the planet Twitter where I’m @MinistryOfGlove.

LATEST SCORE
Borussia Dortmund 1 – 2 Bayern Munich

=======================================================

10.02pm: Wow. Gareth Southgate just said:

It’s was slightly ‘night of the long knives’ they way they got him [Heynckes] out

Interesting reference when describing a German team. We’ll see how that one plays out.

9.50pm: Borussia Dortmund trudge by the cup and to make matters worse, they have to pretend they’re glad to see Angela Merkel.

9.41pm: Great final, great fans – now all that’s left is for Adrian Chiles to ruin it with some inane post-match observations.

9.35pm: FULL TIME! It’s BAYERN who make amends for last year’s hurt as the referee brings it to an end. It’s deserved on the balance of play. Dortmund gave a good account of themselves, but didn’t create as much as the German champions.

9.34pm: SUB! Bayern waste a bit more time by bringing Gomez on for Mandzukic.

9.32pm: SUBS! Dortmund make changes as Schieber comes on for Blaszczykowski and Sahin replaces Bender. Bayern take Ribery off and give Gustavo a run out.

There’s three added minutes and they’re nearly all gone.

9.30pm: GOAL! BAYERN! It’s Arjen Robben. He’s missed a few chances tonight, but he may have got the one that matters. He picks up a knockdown from Ribery and slides it past Weidenfaller. Possibly the most important miskick of his career.

9.28pm: CHANCE! Weidenfaller saves again – this time Schweinsteiger blasts a shot from the edge of the box. It was pretty much straight at him, but he made it look more difficult than that.

9.25pm: Robben dribbles, still manages to foul an opponent. Five minutes to go and it’s 4/11 that we’re going to extra time.

9.21pm: Those Germans and their penalties – it could happen:

Fancy #Dortmund to win 32-31 on penalties. #UCL—
Bernard O'Toole (@BernardOToole) May 25, 2013

9.20pm: OUCH! It’s all square on the ‘lucky to be on the pitch front’ now. Robert Lewandowski stands on Boateng’s ankle, but the referee doesn’t see it. The cameras do and it looked pretty blatant.

9.19pm: Another chance for Bayern. Muller is through on goal, he sort of gets fouled, but still passes to Mandzukic who shots, but can only find the side-netting from a tight angle. In truth, Muller should have gone a bit ‘Arjen Robben’ on that and taken the shot himself.

9.17pm: Lewandowski has a ‘goal’ disallowed for handball and up the other end, Alaba fires in a first time shot from about 25 yards out that Weidenfaller gets to at the expense of a corner.

9.15pm: YELLOW CARDS! Ribery and Grosskruetz go into the book for a crappy coming together.

9.13pm: AMAZING STUFF! Muller skins the Dortmund defence and he tries to square the ball to Robben. Just as it looks like he’s going to tap it in from about six inches out, Subotic swings a leg at it and somehow clears it. Brilliant stuff from the Serbian defender.

9.12pm: It’s going to be a nerve-wracking final 20 minutes or so. About time for ITV to go to an ad.

9.09pm: GOAL! Gundogan sticks it to Neuer’s left with confidence and it’s all square. Bit of a kick in the nuts for anyone who backed Lewandowksi to score at anytime as he declined the chance to take it after Neuer saved one of his about three weeks ago. There’s still time though.

9.08pm: PENALTY! DORTMUND! Dante with a clumsy foul on Reus.

9.07pm: More half-arsed penalty appeals from Dortmund. Again it’s Pisczcek and it might have been a foul, but the fact it happened outside the box undermines their chances of getting a penalty.

9.06pm: 25 minutes to go and the balance is well and truly in Bayern’s favour now. The match odds are: Dortmund 18/1 | Draw 4/1 | Bayern 1/5

9.03pm: Andy Townsend whips out the thesaurus to tell us Borussia Dortmund don’t need to panic just yet:

Dortmund need to take their time. Bide their time

9pm: WHAT A CHANCE! The ball gets flicked on to Mandzukic and … as I type Bayern have scored!

GOAL! Madzukic! Ribery and Robben combine nicely and in a welcome turn of events, the Dutchman passes to a team-mate. The aforementioned Croatian makes amends for missing that half chance and sweeps the ball into an empty net to give Bayern the lead.

8.54pm: Michel Platini and Angela Merkel are pictured in the stands arguing over who has had the shittest idea in the course of their respective tenures. It’s a score draw.

8.51pm: Well played:

What's the difference between time and Arjen Robben? Time passes…—
Genius Football (@GeniusFootball) May 25, 2013

8.47pm: I missed this from the font of all wisdom that is Andy Townsend first time around:

: Andy Townsend, 2 mins: "For Bayern, anything less than winning is failure." @dangerhere—
JP Smith (@thebootleggar) May 25, 2013

8.46pm: The teams are back out on the pitch. Dortmund get the second half underway and Marco Reus looks particularly focused:

8.39pm: ITV are discussing the Frank Ribery elbow incident and he certainly looks lucky to have stayed on the pitch. Easily his worst decision since he decided not to as that French prostitute for her ID.

8.37pm: Dortmund did pretty well in that first half, but it’s Bayern who are the big favourites to win it from here. The match odds are: Dortmund 10/3 | Draw 7/4 | Bayern EVENS

8.36pm: Ha ha!

Bender trying to get the Dortmund crowd going as he comes off for half-time… http://t.co/obLkp9uYeP—
Paddy Power (@paddypower) May 25, 2013

8.31pm: HALF TIME! It’s time for the half time bollockings – although I’d imagine in the case of Klopp, it’s not a bollocking, he just lights some incense, gets his players to sit in the lotus position, hold hands and discuss their feelings after the first 45 minutes.

It’s been one of the better scoreless draws at half time that you’re ever likely to see with both teams enjoying good spells. If that keep it up for the second half we should all be happy – maybe even Roy Keane.

8.28pm: ANOTHER CHANCE! Arjen Robben is presented with another glorious chance and this time ‘smacking the ball into the goalkeeper’s face’ is his chosen method of wasting it.

8.26pm: After a string of great saves, Manuel Neuer looks happy with himself:

8.22pm: Arjen Robben turns a great chance into a half chance and Dortmund clear it for a corner.

From the corner Thomas Muller heads a tame Peter Crouch style header wide when he should have done better.

8.21pm: GREAT SAVE! Lewandowski does brilliantly to turn the Bayern defender, but from about seven yards out, Neuer closes him down quickly and gets the shot away. The goalkeepers have been excellent so far.

8.15pm: GREAT CHANCE! Arjen Robben is played in on goal and when given the option of passing to a team-mate who has an open goal or trying to beat Weidenfaller, he takes on the shot and is thwarted. Did anyone ever really think he was going to pass?

8.14pm: YELLOW CARD! Dante goes into the book for a poor attempt at the Fellaini fro. Or else a cynical body check on Reus.

8.12pm: CHANCE! Bayern finally make a mark on the game as a Mandzukic header forces Weidenfaller into a reaction save. Corner Bayern.

The Bavarians follow it up with another header that goes just narrowly over.

8.10pm: The referee briefly gets in the way of a Dortmund attack and instantly overtakes Bayern in the possession stats.

8.09pm: If you happen to the rom-com victim I mentioned in my intro above and things end up going well tonight, Kelly Cates (nee Dalglish) has a 140 characters of warning:

If you're thinking of having unprotected sex tonight, 2yo just got out of bed, removed nappy, pooed on 4yo's floor, trod in it. #poo—
Kelly Cates (@KellyCates) May 25, 2013

8.07pm: CHANCE! Neuer has been busier than that ‘German towel joke’. This time a Lars Bender shot from about ten yards out causes him some minor irritation which he deals with.

8.05pm: CHANCE! Nice play from Dortmund and Marco Reus forces Neuer into another slightly over-dramatic save.

8.03pm: Dortmund have made the better start to the game, but they’ve nothing to show for it except for Jurgen Klopp winning a few extra cool points.

7.59pm: Lewandowski has a decent shot from about 25 yards out that Neuer makes look more difficult than it was, but ultimately keeps it out.

GREAT CHANCE! That’s followed up by a first time shot from Blaszczykowski who’s low attempt from about eight yards out is blocked by Neuer.

7.58pm: More shots of Gotze wearing his cap funky style back to front and our very own Amy Eustace points out:

Götze looks like he's fresh out of juvy.—
Amy (@amyeustace) May 25, 2013

7.56pm: Ten minutes gone. Blaszczykowski blasts a shot over the bar and the Dortmund fans are great because they react to it with the enthusiasm you’d normally only use for a decent shot.

7.54pm: Tyldesley delivers a load of inane stats with the smugness of someone who is completely unaware that we all have the internet these days.

7.51pm: Clive Tyldesley calls Dortmund ‘a sort of German Crazy Gang’ and seems to think it’s a compliment of some description.

7.50pm: ‘Deeds of doubt?’ Did anyone else hear that?

7.48pm: Free kick against Bender for a tackle from behind. I would make a joke about that, but I’m not Jim Davidson.

7.45pm: Bayern kick off. There’s still time for some excessive praise of Jurgen Klopp.

7.43pm: The teams are out on the pitch for the formalities, but I have to say Arjen Robben looked rather apprehensive in the tunnel before they came out:

7.40pm: Five minutes to go. If you don’t have a bet now, this blog will be deemed a failure and I’ll be forced to work somewhere really embarrassing. Like the Paddy Power Marketing Department.

7.34pm: The heart-breaking side of football. The exact moment Mario Gomez realised he wasn’t in the Bayern starting line-up:

7.25pm: Right, I’m enjoying this a lot, but I’m contractually obliged to talk about betting at some point. We’ve got a fantastic-mega-super-dooper Money-Back Special on the match. Here’s a lovely image to explain it that’s nicer on the eyes that more text:

7.20pm: Oh this is just too good. Adrian Chiles now calls Jurgen Klopp ‘frighteningly likeable’.
Why is it frightening, Chilesy? Are you worried he’s just so likeable it might stir up some deeply buried emotions and you may not be able to control yourself if you bump into him in the mixed zone after the match?

Having a presenter dry-hump one of the manager’s leg would be a low for ITV. And that’s from a station that broadcast Crossroads. Twice.

7.19pm: Ha ha! Famous penalty misser, Gareth Southgate is in no mood to let a fellow pro off the hook for a high profile miss:

Schweinsteiger – don’t forget he missed that penalty in last year’s final

#classy

7.16pm: NEW RULE: German teams to guaranteed a place in the Champions League Final every year as long as they produce a song as good as this:

7.09pm: You would want to hope Gotze makes several swaps between Dortmund and Bayern over the next few years to get value for money out of having this shirt made up:

I thought she ruined one perfectly good jersey, but to paraphrase the words of Homer Simpson, ‘correction, two perfectly good jerseys’.

7.04pm: Chiles continues to set a low bar for the evening, pointing out:

Wembley – yellow one end, red the other – it looks like a real … football match

7.02pm: Two minutes into the ITV programme and Adrian Chiles says the word ‘rumbustious’. Roy Keane looks at him with a facial expression that says ‘do you know the inconvenience that is getting a radio mic pack removed from your rectum?’.

7pm: Here’s a picture of Mario Gotze dressed as a member of a mild-mannered mid-90s rap band. There’s no real reason for it.

6.56pm: Tom Williams delivers a Polish flavoured statbomb:

Lewandowski, Piszczek and Blaszczykowski the first Polish players to start a Champions League final since Jerzy Dudek for Liverpool in 2005.—
Tom Williams (@tomwfootball) May 25, 2013

That’s significant because it’s eight years to the day that Dudek somehow managed to do this:

6.51pm: Andy Gray took a look at the Champions League final and gave us his preview of likely events. He then gave us a comprehensive history of feminism and explained in great detail why the American school of individualist feminism was undermining the valid points of the wider movement. One of those claims was true and you can find out which one here.

6.42pm: I’m hearing there’s commotion in the Bayern dressing room as Manuel Neuer has taken a turn for the worse. He certainly looks like there’s something bothering him:

6.34pm: TEAM NEWS

We’re over an hour away from kick-off, but in a delightful nod to stereotypical German efficiency, the teams are already in.

For Bayern, Badstuber and Kroos were always missing out due to injury and Mario Gomez is confined to looking like George McFly duty from the comfort of the bench as Mandzukic leads the attack.

Bayern Munich
Neuer, Lahm, Boateng, Dante, Alaba; Martinez, Schweinsteiger, Robben, Mueller, Ribery, Mandzukic

Gotze was always going to miss out due to being owned by Bayern a not at all convenient hamstring injury. Their team still looks strong, but it’s also significantly harder to spell than Bayern’s. Here it is:

Borussia Dortmund
Weidenfeller, Pisczcek, Subotic, Hummels, Schmelzer, Bender, Gundogan, Blaszczykowski, Reus, Grosskreutz, Lewandowski

ARJEN ROBBEN – He won’t pass you the ball, but he will give you a hug

So it’s the Germans who are descending on Wembley. The numerous ‘Germans putting down their beach towels early’ gag has probably alerted you to that fact. It’s ok, Borussia Dortmund – we like you so we’ll let you get away with it:

Nettes Plätzchen für ein Picknick! // Nice spot for a picnic, isn't it? (Available at bit.ly/10hR8nf) http://t.co/WxSLewi0wr—
Borussia Dortmund (@BVB) May 23, 2013

For the fourth time in European Cup history teams from the same league will battle it out for the right to take Old Big Ears home. There’s been plenty of ‘familiarity breeds contempt’ style previews predicting a game closer than the odds suggest, but is that really what we should expect? Bayern finished miles ahead of Dortmund in the Bundesliga and handed Barcelona their asses on a plate in the semi-final, so they’re worthy favourites. Does league position make any difference when it comes to deciding ‘one nation’ European finals? The Paddy Power Blog has looked over the history books and found out that it probably does.

First of all, I should point out that there’s a limited sample size mainly due to the fact that prior to becoming the erroneously named ‘Champions League’ in 1992, it was impossible to have a one nation final because, ya know, it was actually for champions and not teams who scraped fourth place after vanquishing the mighty Wigan, QPR, Reading and Norwich in the closing weeks of the season.

To counteract that, I’ve also included the artist formerly known as the UEFA Cup finals too, a competition that gets about as much love as David Hasselhoff’s music in Britain, but is bizarrely popular elsewhere in Europe. I have bothered with the Cup Winners’ Cup or any other crap. In the 12 European finals that have been contested by teams from the same country, I’ve noticed the following trends:

• 66.66% have been won by the team who finished higher in the league that year
• 66.66% of one nation Champions League finals have gone the way of the team ranked lower in the league (but that’s only three games)
• 43% of single leg finals has finished 3-0

Yes, 66.66% isn’t  exactly ‘whopping‘, but it does suggest that league form can’t be discounted, not matter how much ‘don’t rule out the plucky underdogs’ shtick you get from the plucky underdogs. In the 12 ‘one nation’ finals, the winner has finished higher in the domestic leg a not insignificant eight times.

If we rather selectively apply to blinkers to only Champions League finals, the reverse is true, with the trophy going to the lower ranked team 66.66% of the time. In 2000, a Real Madrid team that finished two points behind Valencia in La Liga hockeyed los Ches 3-0 in the decider, while three years later, AC Milan overcame 15 point sized Serie A chasm to beat Juventus on penalties.

The problem for Borussia Dortmund is they ended up finishing so far behind Bayern that the league champions weren’t even a smug Bavarian dot on the horizon. 25 points was the difference as the players popped the champagne corks and although Jurgen Klopp insists it’s down to his team concentrating on their European campaign and free-wheeling their way through the closing weeks of the Bundesliga season, the gap is alarming.

The biggest gap ever overcome in a European Cup or UEFA Cup/Europa League final was Milan’s aforementioned victory. In 2007, an Espanyol team that finished 22 points behind Sevilla in La Liga took them to penalties, but that’s the only occasion a gap this substantial has been overcome. And that wasn’t even really overcome.

In other semi-useful snippets, three of the seven single leg European finals contested between domestic rivals have gone to penalties, most recently the Manchester United and Chelsea Champions League final in which John Terry’s standing leg collapsed faster than Andy Carroll’s market value. Oddly, three of the seven single leg finals have finished 3-0 to the bigger club (Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid and Inter Milan) and if you think that vague stat may continue this time around, it’s 14/1 that Bayern win by that scoreline this time around.

90 minutes is all that stands between two sides and the chance to walk out on the turf at Old Trafford, Anfield and the Emirates, be slated by Gary Neville on Monday Night Football and cash in on a massive £120 million. That’s enough to pay for Cristiano Ronaldo and a whole new back four.

Crystal Palace face Watford at Wembley on Monday evening in what is being touted as the richest game in sport. After some extensive research using the Google machine we’re fairly certain it is up there and it blows other major sporting events out of the water.

• £120 million – Play-off Final
• £47 million – Champions League Final
• £1.15 million – Wimbledon winner
• £500,000 – Grand National winner
• £58,000 – Super Bowl winner
• £100 – Crufts winner

It is a mind-blowing figure when you see it written down. Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich will play for the greatest prize in club football on Saturday night, but in terms of winnings the play-off final is worth two and a half times more. Andy Murray probably won’t win Wimbledon, but even if he did he’d still be £118.5 million behind the victors at Wembley on Monday night.

Although we hate to burst the Championship bubble, the figure that is banded around by the press might be £120 million, but when you break that down it isn’t exactly what the clubs will be pocketing.

Play-off Final Doughnut
Breaking down the £120 million purse

The winners will cash in on around £55 million from TV income and the right to be featured on Match Of The Day. You also get the privilege of having Mark Lawrenson projectile vomit some tired footballing cliches over the BBC’s couch and ruin your Saturday evening.

Another £5 million comes from a few glory-hunters jumping on the Premier League band wagon and the club benefits from selling tickets, replica shirts and practically anything big enough to feature the crest.

Half of the £120 million cheque is actually in parachute payments, just in case the club spectacularly fail in the Premier League and come crashing back into the Championship after nine months of getting thrashed. A bit of an unfair judgement by the Premier League considering 17 of the last 30 promoted teams have survived their first season in the top flight, but probably wise.

There is Premier League status up for grabs though and that means more than just a few bob in the Chairman’s pocket. A leap into the country’s top flight means a chance to play regularly in the biggest league in Europe and for these young players it is a huge step in their career. For some it is step too far of course, but don’t forget for every Andrew Johnson we get a Gareth Bale.

Watford are the 11/8 favourites with Crystal Palace priced up at 21/10 and it is 11/5 to be all square after 90 minutes.

Who will hold their nerve in the £120 million match? Dive in to the latest odds and take advantage of Paddy’s MBS here

This week @AmyEustace ponders whether Gareth Bale is the man to save British football, and why he needs to stay in the Premier League.

The word ‘British’ used to simply denote origin, but in recent years it has taken on a strange, contemporary slant. Just ask Andy Murray – now, spoken in the context of anyone who has achieved great things in their field, ‘British’ tends to mean, ‘They’re not actually English, but we want you all to assume that they are so we can feel better about ourselves’. It’s a tag honourably bestowed on those that are so good the English would be happy to claim them – otherwise, they’re simply Welsh, Scottish, or, more rarely, Northern Irish.

On that logic, enter English football’s answer to Murray: Gareth Bale.

It’s been some time since the world has witnessed a football prodigy of his calibre emerge from England. Not, at least, since Wayne Rooney set the stage alight with whispers of ‘world-class’ for the first time since the English old guard (made up of the likes of Lampard, Gerrard, Terry, Cole and Fergie’s United ‘kids’) stamped their mark on the Premier League era.

Rooney and his predecessors were a boon for the English national team’s chances at re-establishing some form of international dominance (a patently false hope), but Bale, on the other hand, despite his potential for club greatness, will probably only ever strive towards qualification for international competition and stagnant mediocrity with Wales.

His importance for the reputation of the league, though, can’t be underestimated…even if there is no sight more cringe-worthy than a grown man making a heart with his hands at a TV camera.

At 23, the Welshman is already running out of space on his mantelpiece for individual honours and this season, he left various award ceremonies looking like Adele coming out of the Grammys. Named PFA Player of the Year, Young Player of the Year and FWA Player of the Year (and that’s just the plaudits of 2012), Bale has won just about every domestic gong for personal achievement, but no winners medals to speak of for his club’s efforts. With Spurs having narrowly missed out on qualification, I suspect he’d trade it all for the opening violin strains of the Champions League anthem.

A meteoric acceleration in form over the past three seasons has seen the once average second-tier left-back turned sensational Premier League midfielder become the player on which all of Spurs’ hopes are now hinged. Who could have imagined, when he signed from Southampton in 2007, that an 18-year-old Welsh lad would be the key to their dream of establishing themselves as a top four side, and a force to be reckoned with in Europe to boot? Back then, the north London club were comfortable in the top half of the table but challenging somewhere in the middle for the last few UEFA League spots, while Bale was a fresh-faced, fast but flawed defender.

Tottenham’s Goal machine

Now, he’s the league’s hottest property. With a new, unrestrained role handed down to him by André Villas-Boas, Bale has scored many of his 26 goals this season as a sort of second-striker. Yet, even with 21 league goals from the man himself, Spurs finished the season a point shy of local rivals Arsenal, missing out on the Champions League spot that would most likely have made Bale’s extended stay in north London a sure thing.

His contribution has been sorely needed, with strike partners Jermain Defoe and Emmanuel Adebayor clocking up woefully average seasons with just 23 between the pair. The effect of Bale’s scoring focus is that his creative input has been hampered – he managed just 4 league assists, compared with 11 last season, but in total he created 75 chances, placing him in the league’s top ten in terms of key passes.

“To play the way we have also but to miss out on our objective is very disappointing,” said the winger, and it must have struck a nerve to come so close and yet so far, after carrying a club squarely on his shoulders for the best part of the year.

Instead of humiliating Inter Milan right-backs in the Champions League as he is wont to do, Spurs will have to settle for being Europa League playmates with relegated Wigan. But Bale has a choice; he needn’t settle at all.

BALE FORCE: Gareth Bale tore Inter Milan a new one in the Champions League

The Welshman has hinted heavily at staying at Spurs, and if that’s the decision he has made, then it’s daringly loyal, patient and sensible. Granted, at his age, he has plenty of years ahead of him to match his extensive list of personal honours with club trophies, and at least at Spurs he has a degree of certainty as to his place in the team – unlike his former teammate Luka Modric, who has found that perhaps the move from London to Madrid has involved a competition for places he was not quite prepared for.

Indeed, Real Madrid are one of the clubs who have apparently expressed interest in Bale – Sergio Ramos has described him as a ‘Real Madrid-quality signing’. A move there would mean a tussle for supremacy with Cristiano Ronaldo (if the Old Trafford homing call doesn’t prove irresistible). Bale may have evolved beyond the confines of his club and league in terms of reputation, but actively going toe-to-toe with the Portuguese forward and matching him in his perennial battle of one-upsmanship with Lionel Messi is about as likely as Tony Pulis replacing José Mourinho.

If Bale was to move elsewhere now, he’d open up a divergence of paths, some of which lead to true legendary status at a ridiculously young age, while others lead to the burning out of a very bright star indeed. The ‘one-man team’ label Spurs have been given has its obvious downsides, but for Bale the advantage is a squad built to serve his needs. A summer of retirements, sackings and moves has made Tottenham, manager-wise at least, one of the most stable clubs around. With a good summer of transfer market activity under their belt, they could more than close the narrow gap between them and the current top four.

Best in England Europe the world

On the other hand, Bale could buck the trend of British players moving abroad after they’ve peaked and become one of the few to truly adapt to life on the continent, hammering down the accent á la Joey Barton. Instead of waiting around for Spurs to qualify for Europe’s top competition, he could give winning it a shot.

But this summer, in the absence of a major international competition to keep the anticipation at bay, the sense of unpredictability surrounding the coming Premier League season is mouth-watering. With so many stalwarts hanging up their boots (and hairdryers), who wouldn’t want to be around when the shit hits the figurative fan, and the English football hierarchy has its first real shake-up since the early 90s?

As Juan Mata put it earlier in the season, “Gareth is, right now, one of the best in the world. Not just in England, not just in Europe – in the world.”

The last thing the Premier League could use at the moment is the departure of a potential legend, and the inevitable dent it would make in Spurs’ competitiveness. Bale is the hero that the Premier League deserves, and he might just be exactly what it needs right now.

Can Bale guide Tottenham to Champions League football next season? Check out their odds for a top four finish here

The Europa League just got interesting

• The Europa League, up to around about the semi-final stage, has got to be the most tedious club competition in history, but it just got that bit more interesting. At present, it’s just the Champions League’s less good-looking, more attainable sister, however UEFA are expected to confirm today that from 2015 winning the competition will mean automatic qualification for a shot at the real prize the following season, without otherwise affecting the amount of places afforded to the top teams in a domestic league. Hopefully this will help Emmanuel Adebayor to distinguish between the two tournaments by something other than the theme music.

Toothless aggression

• Meanwhile in Argentina, not content with the usual fare of coins, beach balls and other miscellaneous objects, a disgruntled fan threw a set of dentures at Argentinos Juniors Coach Ricardo Lombardi during a match against Belgrano. Argentinos were losing 3-1 to Belgrano and are under serious threat of relegation. No wonder the fan was fed up to the back teeth…

Think before you ink

• Dortmund fans are great. Great, but also fully insane, like this one who had Jurgen Klopp’s open-mouthed face tattooed on his upper back. Unfortunately for him and his fellow supporters, a clairvoyant German elephant called Nelly has predicted that they will lose the final. Paul the Octopus is so 2010.

This morning was one of those very mornings.

So we proudly present to you: The Doughnut.

The Doughnut shows you where the cash is going ahead of big sporting events like Wimbledon, the Ashes, or in this case, the Champions League Final between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund. Rather than being filled with jam, our Doughnut is filled purely with top quality information that may, or may not sway your betting.

Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich
Where the money is going

In this instance the money is flowing in for 4/5 favourites Bayern Munich and it is easy to see why. The German champs dominated the Bundesliga, winning by 25 points in the end and avoiding defeat in four meetings with Borussia Dortmund. 72 per cent of cash is flowing in for Jupp Heynckes’ men as they bid for a historic treble.

A quarter of punters’ pennies is on Borrusia Dortmund to win the cup in 90 minutes. Dortmund have lost just two of the last nine head-to-heads with Bayern and thumped them 5-2 last time they were on neutral soil in the 2012 German Cup. They are 7/2 to cause an upset at Wembley and will be relying on Robert Lewandowski to find the decisive goal, before he potentially leaves in the summer.

Lewandowski has dominated the tournament with 10 goals already, scoring all four in Dortmund’s 4-1 thrashing of Real Madrid in the Westfalenstadium. The Polish striker has five golas in nine games against Bayern Munich in his career and if he adds to that tally on the grandest stage of them all it will cost Paddy a pretty penny. He is refunding selected losing bets if Lewandowski gets the last goal of the game.

Not many people fancy this match to go to extra time, with just three per cent of punters backing the game to be level after 90 minutes. Bayern Munich went all the way to penalties when they lost to Chelsea 12 months ago and 30 per cent of the last 20 Champions League finals have been all square at the final whistle. There have been two draws between the sides in the Bundesliga this season and it could prove to be a bit of value at 13/5.

Fancy a nibble on the doughnut? Dive in to the Champions League Final betting and take advantage of Paddy’s MBS

By Josh Powell | Premier League Nightmare XI

The Premier League season has drawn to a close and Gareth Bale is making room on his windowsill for both PFA Player of the Year and Young Player of the Year awards. As pundits and fans queue to praise the likes of Robin van Persie and Juan Mata, the Paddy Power Blog team has taken a completely different view, choosing to root through the stats and pick out the worst 11 players this year.

This is team of footballers not even Harry Redknapp would want to manage. Ill-discipline, poor passing, loose defending and an inability to hit a cow’s arse with a banjo. This Nightmare XI has it all.

Goalkeeper – Mark Bunn (Norwich)

What they say: Promising young keeper who has served as a more than able deputy for John Ruddy. The only reason he’s not in the Ireland team is because Giovanni Trapattoni probably thinks he is English.

What we say: He’s definitely consistent, just consistently good at picking the ball out of his own net. Bunn conceded a goal on average every 45 minutes this season.

Left back – Jose Enrique (Liverpool)

What they say: Hailed by Brendan Rodgers as ‘sensational’ last December. He used to post loads of pictures of him eating in Nandos on Twitter but then Suso called him gay and Enrique deleted his account.

What we say: All that sweet piri-piri sauce might be having negative consequences. He attempted 68 crosses this season and just seven of them found a Liverpool player.

Centre back – Sebastien Bassong (Norwich)

What they say: Physically strong and powerful. Graduated from the famous Clairefontaine Youth Academy which produced talents like Thierry Henry, William Gallas and Nicolas Anelka.

What we say: From our limited understanding, challenging attackers for the ball is a key area of defending. Bassong attempted a tackle once every 141 minutes this year.

Centre-back – Jonas Olsson (West Brom)

What they say: A tough-tackling defender similar to Olof Mellberg (presumably because they are both Swedish). Steve Clarke regards him as a key player for West Brom in the last few years.

What we say: Reading the game isn’t his strong point. Olsson made an interception on average once every 13o minutes this season.

QUEL SURPRISE: Someone skips past Lowton again. This time it is Mr Jack Wilshere

Right-back – Matthew Lowton (Aston Villa)

What they say: Regarded as one of the league’s best young full-backs and reportedly straight on Arsene Wenger’s summer shopping list.

What we say: One fantastic goal is doing an awful lot to blur people’s judgement. Lowton was dribbled past 40 times this year, the worst record of all the Premier League full-backs.

Left wing – Steven Pienaar (Everton)

What they say: One of Everton’s most creative players with the ability to find the back of the net from distance. Hailed by pundits for his link-up play with Leighton Baines on the left.

What we say: To quote any one of the Match Of The Day panel, ’You are definitely 86 per cent less likely to score if you don’t have the ball.’ Pienaar was dispossessed 84 times this season, more than any other midfielder.

Centre midfield – Craig Gardner (Sunderland)

What they say: A versatile midfielder who isn’t afraid to get stuck in. When both players were at Aston Villa, Gareth Barry said that Gardner would be a key player for years.

What we say: Gareth Barry is a fool. Gardner has the worst disciplinary record this year with 10 yellow cards and one sending off. 34 per cent of his tackles have been fouls this season.

Centre midfield – Adel Taarabt (QPR)

What they say: Hyped as the next Zinedine Zidane when he first came to England and regarded as one of the best players in the Championship three years ago. Signed for Tottenham in 2007 and used to be link with a move to Arsenal or abroad.

What we say: What he lacks for in ability he makes up in confidence. Although, he does lack a significant amount of ability. This season he took 98 shots and scored just five goals.

GUTTED: This is a pretty much permanent expression of disappointment for Taraabt

Right wing – Jason Puncheon (Southampton)

What they say: Saints fans rave about Puncheon’s work rate, his eye for goal and creativity coming in off either flank. Nigel Adkins described Puncheon’s season as ‘excellent’ at the turn of the year. Most memorably went to destroy some porcelain mid-way through a match with Everton in January.

What we say: The only thing more questionable than his toilet antics is his eye for a pass. Just 14 per cent of his through balls found their target this season.

Striker – Bobby Zamora (QPR)

What they say: A bullish English centre-forward who is renowned for his hold up play and ability to play as a lone front man. Teddy Sheringham has urged Roy Hodgson to include Zamora in the England set-up.

What we say: Zamora falls straight out of the Heskey mould. He completed just two successful dribbles in 21 appearances this year.

Striker – Danny Welbeck (Manchester United)

What they say: Tipped by Sir Alex Ferguson to be the future of England and Manchester United. Tireless striker who works the flanks and looks a lot like Gerald from Hey Arnold!

What we say: One goal in almost 22 hours of Premier League football this year. Unbelievable.

Who have we missed? Get in touch with any suggestions and head over here if you want to check the outright markets for the Premier League 2013/14 season

GUS POYET – Winner of the 2012 ‘Gurning While Fighting An Invisible Giant’ World Championships

By Aidan Elder | Chief sports writer

‘We’re in no hurry to appoint a replacement’ was the news coming out of Goodison Park after it was confirmed that David Moyes would be leaving to do a Sir Alex Ferguson impression at Old Trafford. And that initial claim has proven be the case as we’re as close to finding out who the successor is as Marouane Fellaini is to appearing on the cover ‘Sensible Haircuts Monthly’.

There’s been no shortage of rumour, counter rumour and what we’re guessing is managers starting gossip about themselves in the hope of getting some attention. But the names that appeared towards the top of the Next Everton Manager betting at the beginning are mostly all up there a week and a half later. It still looks as open as a Who’d like to punch Justin Bieber?’ competition. Here’s a run down of the men who have been heaviest backed to land the Toffees job:
(Prices subject to change - Latest odds here)

20.30 update: USA national team manager Jurgen Klinsmann in to 7/2 from 16s; Cardiff boss Malky MacKay comes in to 8/1 after a flurry of online and retail bets.

Roberto Martinez – 5/2

The Wigan manager was a popular choice from the outset, but since the vacancy became available he’s also landed an FA Cup. That was great timing if he was trying to put himself in the shop window and even better timing if he was hoping to distract people from the fact the Latics actually got relegated. He’s got his strong points, he’s got his flaws, but you’ve made him favourite for the Everton job for the vast majority of this betting heat.

What he’s got going for him:

• He’s essentially available after Wigan got relegated
• No-one seems to have noticed Wigan got relegated

Neil Lennon – 6/1

At no point during the last couple has the Celtic manager said he wants the job or intends to leave Celtic Park. Clearly ‘I’m not leaving Celtic’ is clever double-speak for ‘I’m definitely leaving Celtic and going to Everton’ based solely on the number of bets coming in for Lennon (41). Despite expressing minimal interest in the job, he’s the second most backed man in the book. His credentials are interesting, but whether or not winning two horse and then one horses races is adequate experience for managing the Toffees is far less certain.

What he’s got going for him:

• Has won stuff
• Always seems about one hissy fit away from quitting Scottish football for good

Phil Neville – 7/1

The odds for the younger and less grating Neville (36) to get the job have been up and down like Jordan’s knickers, but he has now nestled snugly towards the top of the betting that’s to steady support from the betting public. He hung up his combative midfielder boots on Sunday, but he’s likely to replace them with combative coaching boots in the near future. It would be a surprise to see him get the Everton job with such little experience, but then again, it was a surprise that Everton gave Andy van der Meyde money to be a professional footballer, so this is a club with a history of daring and somewhat ill-advised risks.

What he’s got going for him:

• He’s a club hero
• Has hung around with some good managers long enough to maybe learn something

Alan Stubbs – 5/1

Not dissimilar to Neville, Stubbs’ odds have been up and down like Christina Aguilera’s dress size but some sustained support has seen him become one of the most popular choices in the betting. Former Toffee penalty-smasher, David Unsworth gave his former team-mate a vote of confidence and illustrating how little news we’ve had on the subject in recent days, people actually treated it like his it was major news rather than one man saying he supports his mate.

What he’s got going for him:

• He’s a club hero
• Has already got his foot in the Everton coaching door and wouldn’t even need a new security pass

Gus Poyet – 5/1

It’s not really possible to have a ‘bolter’ in a market that’s been trundling along so slowly, but if there is, Poyet is the man. Ironically, getting knocked out of the play-offs with Brighton seems to have improved his credentials in the eyes of punters because since his season ended prematurely, he’s been well backed for the job.

What he’s got going for him:

• Looks like he’s rather good at this managerial lark
• He’s got a better track record than a lot of his supposed rivals

Also Worth A Mention

Malkay Mackay is closing in fast on the top five after a slew of bets on the newly crowned Championship manager of the year. His price is in to 5/1 but what does it say about his confidence in his own abilities if he doesn’t at least give the Premier League a crack with Cardiff? Or maybe he just hates Wales.
David Weir has found some backers too. The former player and current Everton coach would certainly appeal to Bill Kenwright’s love of not spending money. His 14/1 price puts him on the outside of the betting for now.
And for some reason people still think Jurgen Klinsmann is a good manager. Or at least good enough for Everton There have been some sizeable bets on the German who is now just 6/1 to get the job. His stints with Bayern Munich and the US national team have shown he’s not very good without Joachim Loew doing the actual managing.

Find out all the latest happenings in the Everton Manager betting by checking out the latest odds

A slightly more detailed (and out of date look) at some of the candidates for the Everton job

HOW WIDE? Theo accurately portrays the gap between Arsenal and Spurs. He looks chuffed.

By Josh Powell | Betting news

Piers Morgan calling for Arsene Wenger’s head. Tottenham stretching clear before ultimately crumbling quicker than a rich tea biscuit in a hot brew. Arsenal sweeping in, claiming fourth with some solid performances and celebrating like it was an actual trophy. Just another season in the Premier League then.

Arsenal finished a point clear of their North-London rivals to guarantee Champions League football next year, but at what point of their topsy-turvy season did you back them to finish in the top four?

August 17 2012: 8/15

The day before the Premier League season begins. Optimism around the Emirates is sky-high as Wenger splashes more than £31 million on Santi Cazorla, Lukas Podolski and Olivier Giroud to fill the void left by a certain Robin van Persie.

September 24 2012: 2/5

Five games into the season and Arsene Wenger’s men are unbeaten. They’ve beaten Liverpool away and drawn with Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium. They also spanked six past Southampton at home. Robin who?

December 16 2012: Evens

The next 11 games are a mixture of highs and lows, mostly devastatingly crushing lows. One high is a 5-2 win over Tottenham in November but other than that it is bleak. Losses to Norwich and Swansea and draws with Aston Villa and Fulham leave them in eight, five points behind Spurs in fourth. Van Persie’s goal in United’s 2-1 win at the Emirates adds salt to the wounds and defeat to Bradford in the Carling Cup is the footballing version of kicking a man when he’s down. Right in the groin. #WengerOut

December 30 2012: 4/6

Christmas is kind as Arsenal end the year with four wins on the spin including a 5-2 thumping of Reading and a 7-3 annihilation of Newcastle. They end 2012 in fifth, three points behind Spurs but with a game in hand.

January 21 2013: 6/4

Disaster start to 2013! Defeats to Chelsea and Man City along with a 1-1 draw against Southampton put the Gunners seven points behind fourth-placed Tottenham and level on points with Liverpool and West Brom.

February 25 2013: 8/13

Arsenal go unbeaten in the next five, dropping just two points as they fly back up the league. With the game against Tottenham at White Hart Lane approaching the Gunners go two points behind Chelsea in fourth and three behind Spurs. It is squeaky bum-time in North London.

March 3 2013: 7/4

Comical defending gives Tottenham a 2-1 win and Per Mertesacker and Thomas Vermaelen couldn’t have made it much easier. Their inability to work the offside trap was reminiscent of a pub game and Arsenal go five behind Chelsea and seven behind Spurs.

WEN’ DID IT START GOING WRONG? Probably when Piers Morgan joined Twitter Arsene

April 14 2013: 2/7

All change! Arsenal win four on the spin after the defeat while Tottenham perform their annual collapse and the Chelsea players pay too much attention to avoiding questions about Rafa Benitez instead of beating Southampton. The Gunners leap to third, a point clear of Spurs and Chelsea.

April 29 2013: 1/4

Arsene Wenger’s men show some grit that many thought they didn’t have by grinding out draws against Everton and newly crowned Champions United either side of beating Fulham in a scrappy 1-0. Robin van Persie scores again to annoy the Emirates faithful but they are two points clear of Spurs in fourth with a relatively straight-forward run-in.

May 19 2013: 1/3

Going in to the last game and Arsenal lead by a point. There is still plenty to play for as Arsenal have to travel to Newcastle while Tottenham face Sunderland at home. Despite the odds Andy Gray goes against the grain and backs Tottenham to get fourth. Classic Andy.

May 19 2013 5.20pm: 1/6

There is half an hour left in both games and Arsenal look home and hosed. Laurent Koscielny put the Gunners in front in the 52nd minute and Tottenham are still struggling to break down the Black Cats.

May 19 2013 5.40: 1/12

Pretty much done and dusted. It is Champions League football for Arsene Wenger next season and another year beneath their North London rivals for Tottenham. Gareth Bale’s wonder strike (is it still a wonder strike when he does it every week?) gives Tottenham fans the smallest glimmer of hope but it is Thursday nights on ITV4 for them.

Arsenal are 8/11 to finish in the top four next year with Tottenham at 5/4. Check out the outright odds over here.

HAT-TRICK HERO: 80/1 shot Lukaku netted three against United to set punters up for a night on the town

By Josh Powell | Betting news

#IfWeKnewThen

The Premier League went absolutely mental on the final day of the season with 36 goals in 10 games, Jack Rodwell scoring twice, Kevin Nolan getting a hat-trick, Manchester Untied throwing away a three goal lead in the last ten minutes and Fulham winning away.

We were just a Tony Hibbert goal away from the end of the world.

Unsurprisingly there weren’t any punters backing the correct score in Sir Alex Ferguson’s last match or Norwich to beat City at the Etihad 3-2. Despite some of the craziest results of the season there was still some excellent punting out of left-field so a hat-tip to all these stunning punts.

80/1

Romelu Lukaku – West Brom v Manchester United
To score a hat-trick

West Brom’s top scorer needed just over 35 minutes to bang in a hat-trick against the Champions and secure three punters an 80/1 gamble. Romelu Lukaku had 14 goals to his name in the Premier League before being introduced at half-time on Sunday and turning the game on his head.

The Belgian striker has averaged approximately a goal a game this season for the Baggies and three goals on Sunday took his total to 17 – his best return in England. With that kind of record and Fergie’s decision to throw both Alex Buttner and Anders Lindegaard into United’s starting line-up maybe it isn’t that obscure a bet after all.

70/1

Swansea 0-3 Fulham
Correct Score bet

To say Fulham don’t do well away from home is like saying Ireland’s Eurovision entry was the biggest musical break-through since Oasis recorded (What’s The Story) Morning Glory. The Cottagers had won just three times on the road this season before travelling to Swansea and as my well-esteemed colleague Aidan points out, the Swans don’t mind notching up wins in dead rubber games.

Many people therefore weren’t expecting a Fulham win, let alone a 3-0 thumping of Michael Laudrup’s side. A handful of Paddy Power punters called it spot on though with the correct score and cashed in a 70/1 shot to end the season on a high.

66/1

Jack Rodwell – Manchester City v Norwich
To score two or more 

Jack Rodwell hasn’t set the world alight since joining Manchester City from Everton last year. This is partly due to injury and partly due to the fact he simply isn’t good enough to play in a top four side. Even when he was playing more regularly at Everton he was hardly prolific in front of goal and before Sunday his average was a goal every 15 appearances.

It was either pure madness, ridiculous luck or a stroke of utter genius then that resulted in five Paddy Power punters backing Jack Rodwell to score two or more goals against Norwich at odds of 66/1.

Incredibly Rodwell duly obliged with a brace,giving those lucky punters a nice little windfall and causing some clueless pundits to call for Rodwell to be back in the England squad. Ouch.

60/1

Darren Bent to score first and Aston Villa to draw 2-2 with Wigan
Scorecast bet

Before the weekend Darren Bent had played just two hours of Premier League football since November. The out-of-favour Villa striker didn’t hang about on Sunday though and netted within five minutes as he tried to add a few digits to his price tag this summer.

Two punters backed Bent to open the scoring in a 2-2 draw with Wigan and cashed in on a winning 60/1 shot. Somebody in the Power Tower kitchen scoffed that only Bent’s Nan would have backed him in a scorecast but sadly she doesn’t have an account with us.

Fair play to the two punters that gambled on Bent to still have his knack in front of goal. The drinks are on them.

Look at what we could have won…

Due to the nature of a bananas day of Premier League action, here are some of the biggest bets that were practically impossible to call.

• West Brom 5-5 Manchester United
• Anthony Pilkington to score first and Norwich to beat Manchester City 3-2
• Kevin Nolan to score first and West Ham to beat Reading 4-2

Football pundit and analyst Andy Gray gives his thoughts to the Paddy Power Blog Team ahead of the crucial play-off finals at Wembley this weekend.

Bradford v Northampton, Live Saturday, 1.30pm, Sky Sports 1

League Two Play-off Final

Bradford have lost just three games since Swansea beat them in the Capital One Cup Final and have the chance to cap a memorable season this afternoon at Wembley.

They’ve been there and done that already against the Swans and that might just make it ‘advantage Bradford’ in the final. Phil Parkinson’s side have that added experience but Northampton are hitting form at just the right time too. It’s a tough one to call but I can’t help feeling that maybe the Bantams have one or two more match-winners in their side.

That might just swing it for them and I’ll go for the Bradford to get some play-off compensation at 13/10 today.

• Betting: Bradford v Northampton  

Brentford v Yeovil, Live Sunday 1.30pm, Sky Sports 1

League One Play-off Final

Brentford are  zero wins from five and that’s not ideal in a match of this importance. But they’ve not got a good record against Yeovil in the head-to-head games and that should count for something for Yeovil. But Brentford have done well to recover from what happened at Doncaster and they’ve got a second chance and Uwe Rosler won’t want to let that slip by the wayside.

The only German manager in England’s four divisions is someone I’ve plenty of time for and he’s very ambitious.  But Yeovil are no pushovers and both sides will feel they can win this. It could go all the way and it might even take extra-time and even penalties to separate them.

I’m just going to give the nod to Brentford at 6/5.

• Betting: Brentford v Yeovil 

YOUR LUCKY ‘DAY – There’s a reference to the Saturdays in the text which provides the flimsy justification for using this picture

By Aidan Elder | Chief sports writer

This is karma. 12 months after QPR’s pluckiness and Manchester City’s complacency contrived to make for the most exciting end to a Premier League season in history, we’ve been handed a set of fixtures which make mowing the lawn on a mild afternoon seem moderately appealing.

Yes, Arsenal and Tottenham are trying to give each other one in the eye by consigning their north London neighbours to the disgrace of Europa League football, but with the trap door already closed and Lord Fergie smiling smugly into his 13th league title, we’ve got a lot of games with not much riding on them.

But that pessimistic outlook doesn’t mean there isn’t some money to be made. With players already thinking about the faraway shores in which they can commit their marital infidelities, teams can be notoriously unreliable, but is there some reliability to their unreliability? The Paddy Power Blog has looked over the history of Premier League final days and discovered that there probably is.

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IN A NUTSHELL

• THERE’S NOT MUCH TO PLAY FOR THIS SUNDAY
• MANCHESTER UNITED ARE NORMALLY RELIABLE TO THE END
• IT’S WELL WORTH OPPOSING STOKE

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First up, we need a definition of what is a dead rubber. For this exercise, it’s as simple as Sam Allardyce’s tactics – a dead rubber for a team is any game that doesn’t involve them winning the title, escaping relegation or qualifying for Europe qualifies as a final day dead rubber. In short, it wasn’t counted as a dead rubber if:

• A league title was up for grabs
• They were trying to avoid relegation
• They’re going for European qualification
• They’re going for a better type of European qualification
  (i.e. improving from Europa League place to a Champions League place or Champions League Play-off round to Champions League proper)

What was counted as a dead rubber was any game in which a team moved up a couple of futile places in the league. For example, leap-frogging Fulham and Stoke of that much sought after ninth placed finish. Yes it may feel like oral sex from each of the Saturdays to an Aston Villa fan, but the rest of the world didn’t care. Also included is any game in which a team were guaranteed to finish in a certain place, regardless of their final day result. The type of game they’d ring in sick for if they weren’t contractually obliged to fulfill it.

Swansea are technically the kings of the final day dead rubber, but they’ve only had one, which they won. As you might expect, Manchester United are the more consistent kings of the final day dead rubber, winning an impressive 75 per cent of the 12 final day games in which they have nowt to play for. The stakes may be low, but the hairdryer remains plugged in until the last.

Chelsea have also done pretty well, especially considering a large portion of their final day dead rubber success came prior to Abramovich’s billions when they were poor and Graeme Le Saux counted as exotic because he came from Jersey. I’m going to ignore QPR’s lofty listing on the list on account of the fact all four of their final day dead rubbers came at the start of the Premier League era. Southampton’s eight dead rubbers also go back some time, but they have won half of their eight, which at least feels like some sort of achievement for a team of their size.

There are some surprises among the unreliables. Manchester City’s name stands out, but bear in mind a large chunk of that record is based on their pre-petrodollar days when writing Roll With It could have earned you enough money to buy the club.

Stoke’s name is less surprising. It’s to Tony Pulis’ credit that he’s had his team far enough the table to avoid final day relegation scrapping, but it’s less of a credit to him that his players don’t seem to give a crap at this stage of the season. In each of their Premier League seasons, they’ve had the luxury of a final day dead rubber, but they’ve yet to win one in four attempts. West Brom fall into a similar category, although they’ve been involved in plenty of final day drama too.

Arsenal, Everton, Liverpool and Tottenham also feature further down the list than you might expect, but as two of those teams still have plenty to play for, it’s irrelevant for this time around. The Merseyside clubs are already locked into sixth and seventh place so don’t be surprised if they phone it in a bit this Sunday, which could be good news for Rafa Benitez and Harry Redknapp if they’re looking for a cherry on top of the cake of absurdity that has been this Premier League campaign.

It’s nothing conclusive, but it’s worth taking on some of the teams which dodgy final day records. Manchester United (v West Brom), Swansea (v Fulham), Chelsea (v Everton) and Southampton (v Stoke) are all teams with good final day dead rubber records against teams who haven’t been as arsed over the years. The four-fold pays just under 9/1 and these dead rubbers could add some bounce to your bank account.

• Discover all the dead rubber opportunities in this weekend’s Premier League matches

‘And now the end is near, and so I face the final curtain’. We can’t bring you Frank Sinatra but expert football pundit and analyst Andy Gray is joining Paddy Power for one last time as the Premier League season draws to a close. Don’t worry too much though, he could well be making a spectacular return next year and he is looking to finish on a high.

Here are his tips on the last day of Premier League action.

Andy Gray’s double:
Spurs to win & Arsenal to draw: 4/1

Newcastle v Arsenal, Sky Sports 1, 4.00pm

Arsene Wenger will want to make sure his team concentrate on the job they have to do and not get caught up in what’s going on at White Hart Lane. Alan Pardew made a strange statement last week along the lines that ‘now that we’re safe we can lose the last game 4-0′.

But I don’t believe that. I think Pardew will ask for a really big effort from his players against the Gunners and the Geordie fans will certainly demand it.

If there’s going to be an upset in either of these games then I think this could be it. Arsenal’s 4-1 win against Wigan mid-week sounded convincing – but it wasn’t. They were nervy and anxious. Their results speak for themselves though and the Gunners have won seven and drawn two of the last nine league games since March – but I think they’ll slip up against the Magpies.

I fancy a 1-1 draw at 17/2 with Paddy Power which – depending on the result at White Hart Lane – might not be good enough for the Gunners.

• Betting: Newcastle v Arsenal

Tottenham v Sunderland, Sky Sports 2, 4.00pm

Unless Tottenham collapse or freeze on the day I can’t see them not taking all three points to heap the pressure on Arsenal to get a result at Newcastle.

They’re really driving towards the finishing line this year and Gareth Bale has been in terrific form with three goals in his last five league games. I think Spurs will win this comfortably at 3/10 with a 2-0 home win trading at 11/2.

Paulo Di Canio has laid down the law at Sunderland and just this week was fining players and is bringing some in for training on Monday! The Italian is making his mark but I don’t think the Black Cats are good enough to get a result against Spurs.

• Betting: Tottenham v Sunderland

• Betting: Premier League coupon

CAN YOU BELIEVE IT? We’re not the only ones excited about a third place play-off. Pic: Getty Images

By Josh Powell | Premier League betting

£755,062 is the precise difference between third and fourth in terms of Premier League prize money. But there is plenty more at stake for Arsene Wenger and his Arsenal side going in to the weekend where they could dramatically set-up the league’s first ever third place play-off.

Europa League winners and top Rafa-haters Chelsea are currently sitting in third on 72 points, two clear of the Gunners. A win against Everton in their final league game guarantees them third, the £750k that comes with it and a pass straight through to the group stages of the Champions League.

It is Oliver’s golden ticket of football, or that fast-pass thing the posh kids get at Alton Towers. Forget the money, going through to the group stages automatically means you don’t have to try to navigate the minefield that is the Champions League qualifying stage.

This year the play-offs included quarter-finalists Malaga and Scottish champs Celtic, as well as tricky European sides Dynamo Kiev, Spartak Moscow and Fenerbache. The two-legged ties are no walkover and could mean some mid-week trips to Eastern Europe just as the new season gets underway.

All in all they are more hassle than trying to use the supermarket self-checkout while you’re massively hungover.

GUTTED: The moment Wenger puts an unexpected item in the baggage area

For Arsenal to avoid the qualification stages they have to beat Newcastle at St James’  Park. The Gunners will be confident having lost to Newcastle just once in their last 14 meetings. Arsene Wenger’s men will be hoping Everton do them a favour against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.

The Twitter hype is in overdrive at the thought of a third place play-off, although the players’ wives aren’t so keen about having to cancel their flights to the Caribbean. Luckily I doubt they’re flying with Ryanair so they won’t get that filthy huge charge for swapping flights. No wonder the country is broke.

For a third place play-off to happen the following has to take place:

Chelsea have to draw with Everton and Arsenal have to beat Newcastle by a single goal, but only score two more than Chelsea. So if Chelsea drew 0-0, Arsenal would have to win 2-1. If Chelsea drew 1-1, Arsenal would have to win 3-2 and so on.

That would leave the teams level on pints, goal difference and goals scored resulting in a bonus end of season extravaganza in the form of a third place play-off.

Of course Arsenal could cock the entire thing up and might end up finishing fifth if they have a complete meltdown and Spurs win against Sunderland. But for Arsene’s sake we won’t dwell on that.

You can back there to be a third place play-off at 50/1 here and for all the odds on this weekend’s Premier League action head this way

MANCHESTER’S MOYES: David Moyes takes over at OT and wins one punter nearly £1500

By Josh Powell | Betting news

#IfWeKnewThen

In 2001 DJ Pied Piper was dominating the charts with Do You Really Like It, the first Harry Potter film was released and chief United gurner Phil Jones was still in primary school.

David Moyes had just turned 38 and had won Division Two with Preston before taking them to the Division One play-offs.

One eagle-eyed punter spotted the managers potential and put just over £20 on the Scotsman to become the next Manchester United manager at 66/1.

David Rossi, 71, is a life-long Preston fan and 12 years after placing the bet online with Paddy Power he finally won his bet, collecting £1470.65.

Listen to David appearing on Hector’s Breakfast show on RTE 2FM

‘Whenever the topic has come up over the years and I’ve put Moyes up as the next United manager I never had one person agree with me!’

‘I support Preston, and they’ve been my team since I was nine years old. Sir Tom Finny was my idol as a kid so I’d always been a North End fan. David Moyes had done well with Preston and I was aware that Moyes and Ferguson got on well.’

‘At that time Sir Alex Ferguson wanted Moyes to be his deputy at Manchester United but he turned it down and went to Everton. There were rumours in the early 2000’s that Ferguson was set to retire so when the market opened I had a look at the price of Moyes.’

‘He was 66/1 with Paddy Power which was the biggest price around so I stuck £21.95 on it.’

Paddy Power helped break the news that David Moyes was taking the reins at Old Trafford on Monday May 6 after a flood of bets came in making him odds-on to replace Ferguson. Less than 48 hours later and the club confirmed Sir Alex Ferguson was retiring at the end of the season with David Moyes heavily fancied to take his place.

It meant a new era for the English Champions and a decent payout for David after more than a decade of waiting for Fergie to hang up his hair-dryer.

‘All these years I have been hoping Everton wouldn’t get relegated because that would rule Moyes out of the job. I was really holding out for them to win an FA Cup or qualify for Europe to keep him up there with a chance.’

‘I admit if Preston weren’t my team I wouldn’t have known anything about Moyes. It was only because he was at Preston and I’ve been following them for more than 60 years that I knew how good he was.’

Find out all the odds on who will replace David Moyes at Everton here, and check out our punting hall of fame while you’re at it

BYE BYE BECKS: PSG was Beckham’s last stop before retirement

David Beckham has retired from football. The world-famous winger is the only Englishman ever to win four league titles in four different countries, lifting trophies with Manchester United, Real Madrid, LA Galaxy and PSG.

His hairstyles, fashion sense and decision to listen to his wife’s music is all debatable but there are no arguments when it comes to his medal haul. Arguably one of United’s greatest ever number 7′s Beckham won six Premier Leagues, two FA Cups and a Champions League with the Red Devils.

He added a La Liga crown with Real Madrid after taking a boot to the face of Sir Alex Ferguson and then picked up more league titles as his career took him to America and France.

As a legend hangs up his boots (and hopefully that sarong) here are five of his best goals.

Do you agree? Tell us if we have missed your favourite Beckham goals and go here to find out Beckham’s chances of being the next England manager

1996 v Wimbledon

1998 v Barcelona (47 seconds into this clip)

2000 v Real Madrid

2001 v Greece

2012 v Portland Timbers