Not Big Sam offers some advice for Paul Lambert in his Paddy Power Blog column as Aston Villa prepare for a home game against West Ham

I know what you’ll all think. I know the derisive thoughts that will be percolating around your rancorous minds before I even broach the subject. I know what they’ll be before they’ve even ascended up your gullets, and been spat out of your wretched mouths.

“Who the hell do you think you are Not Big Sam, you patronising barbarian? Your career has been a magnificent procession of exhilarating highs; you’ve done nothing but soar, like a Golden Eagle, around the mountainous slopes of footballing excellence for the best part of two decades – what the hell do you know about being under pressure?!”

As I sit in my chic, minimalist-inspired (particularly the work of Anne Truitt, if you’re interested) London apartment, drinking gourmet Vietnamese coffee – whilst being resplendently dressed in an array of colours and silks that would make an African king look about as stylish as a butch lesbian from Florida – it may, ostensibly, be difficult for me to refute such allegations.

NO WIN SITUATION: But I’m sending my team of crack assassins to heap the misery on Lambert

Big Sam has, however, also endured his fair share of professional low points. Being sacked by Newcastle. Being sacked by Blackburn. Being forced by Karren Brady to draw a detailed picture of my genitalia during my interview at West Ham. These events threatened to despoil the very spirit that courses gallantly throughout my cyborg-like frame, sending me sprawling into a mangy pit of anguish and despair in the process.

It is such experiences of wallowing in the filthy managerial mud of misery – and the peerless adroitness employed to escape such depleting metaphorical dungeons – that marks Not Big Sam out as the country’s foremost authority on coping with pressure in football. It is within this prestigious position that I look towards Aston Villa’s Paul Lambert, with a mixture of fear, hope, sympathy and the sweet, ibuprofen-like relief that it is him with his balls plopped precariously in the centre of the chopping board, and not me.

It’s an awful situation… Birmingham

Lambert finds himself caught in the ruthless cross-hairs of public perception; pinned helplessly to the ground, under the crushing, immobilising burden of being shite. It’s an awful situation, and one that will no doubt be causing him countless sleepless nights, and precautionary trips to The Money Shop. His Aston Villa side lie just above the foot of the table, with a winless streak that stretches back to December 2012. They’re in a worse state than Stephen Hawking’s toes. As a result, Lambert now inhabits an existence where he faces a chorus of boos every time he opens his front door, and steps into the harsh ghetto lands of Birmingham.

Everywhere he goes, he’s met with the jabbing scalpel of disappointment and anger. I’ve heard one horrifying story about him having a full can of Lilt sprayed straight into his face by a nun outside Argos, while there have also been murmurs about some form of toxic gas being secretly pumped into his house in tiny amounts that can’t be detected, but will, like, totally kill you eventually.

As I take my all-conquering West Ham side to Villa Park this Sunday, I find myself in the difficult position of wanting to heap even more misery upon Lambert’s bruised and fragile shoulders, while also yearning to reach across the dugout, place my hands tenderly on his hips, and pull him gently towards my breast to reassure him that everything will be okay. I want to simultaneously break his spirit and tear at his flesh like a rabid honey badger, and also comfort and pamper him with all the sweetness of… an ordinary badger.

WORLD AT  HIS FEET: But Pato’s subsequent album of Shed Seven covers failed to set the world alight

If I could offer Paul Lambert just one piece of advice, it would be to just be himself; don’t abandon your ideals and convictions just because things aren’t currently going well. I still remember Pato Banton – another son of Birmingham – knocking at my door one night in the late 90s, in absolute floods of tears. Pato had been riding high on the success of 1994′s crossover smash, Baby Come Back, and thought he owned the world.

Subsequent offerings, however, didn’t quite live up to his previous success, and he began to doubt his entire approach to music. As he opened up to me that night, over an incredible plate of jerk chicken he – rather strangely – had been carrying in his pocket, he told me of his plan to bow to the pressure of outside forces, turn his back on his reggae roots, and record an album of Shed Seven covers.

I looked him deep in the eye for several penetrating seconds, before slapping him full on the face. Jerk chicken was flung violently around the room, like a gerbil in a blender. Over the next few hours, and with the aid of a rather relaxing bag of sensi that Pato had brought with him (he’s like a waking tuck shop, that boy), I explained that a life without principles, is like a life without blood. Or oxygen. Or a willy. It’s simply no life at all. If those whom you serve expect you to just capriciously disregard everything you hold dear, simply to assuage their short-sighted demands, then you have two choices: either you dig your heels in, hold your nerve, and trust your own ability, or you walk away with your head held high, and let the vampirific ghouls feast upon another man’s veins.

I don’t know Paul Lambert very well, and I have no idea what kind of temperament the man has (he looks a little like a surly geography teacher, who just can’t forget the night he watched his friend die on an oil rig). When I greet him this weekend, however, I’ll tell him the tale of Pato Banton, and remind him that every angel must go through many an ordeal before he earns his wings. Facing my rutless gang of crack soccer assassins on Sunday, just might be the last one he has to endure. Do not go gentle into that good night, Paul. Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

You’re still getting f***ing hammered, mind.

• Betting: Aston Villa v West Ham
• Aston Villa Team Page
• West Ham Team Page

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FourFourTom picks his dream Premier League team

Let me start by asking you to imagine your dream car. 99% of people will think about the colour, the entertainment system or another luxury feature before sparing a single thought for the engine, the brakes or other fundamental pieces.

Without the latter, the car is not a car. Putting together a ‘Best XI’ works in the same way as putting together a great car. It isn’t as simple as picking all of the best parts and hoping they fit together. It’s about picking the parts that offer the right balance between reliability and innovation. The overall product is more important than any individual feature. Therefore how each part benefits the whole should always be the deciding factor.

So, without further ado, here’s my Premier League Best XI for the Paddy Power Blog.

Goalkeeper: Asmir Begovic (Stoke)

Joe Hart? No. Petr Cech? No. Asmir Begovic is my goalkeeper of choice. After years of loan deals to lower league clubs, forming buttock-prints on Portsmouth’s bench and fighting it out with Thomas Sorensen for a starting place in the Premier League, Begovic has finally paid his dues – and Stoke are reaping the rewards. The Bosnian international tops the Premier League’s clean sheet charts this season, is second in terms of successful saves and has conceded less goals from open play than any keeper in the top flight. The statistic which really shows Begovic’s strength, though, is his handling of crosses – he’s collected 44 aerial crosses this season and is yet to fumble a single one. Every team needs a reliable goalkeeper between the sticks and, for me, that man is Begovic.

Right-back: Branislav Ivanovic (Chelsea)

His goalscoring prowess, frequent marauding runs down the wing and crossing ability have quickly earned Branislav Ivanovic a reputation as one of the most feared full-backs in football, but he never shies from his defensive duties. It was a closely run contest between him and Pablo Zabaleta for the right-back slot in my team, but he just edges it.

Centre-back: Vincent Kompany (Manchester City)

When Sheikh Mansour completed his takeover of Manchester City in September 2008 and pledged to fill the squad with high profile players, who would have thought their most valuable player had already been signed for £6million one month earlier? A tremendously intelligent and respectful player off the pitch and a titanic defender on it, Vincent Kompany’s presence at the back has operated as the foundation for City’s renaissance. The best defender in the Premier League and the first name on my team-sheet.

Centre-back: John Terry (Chelsea)

With several injury-plagued months behind him and his physical attributes slowly diminishing, John Terry’s name in my XI may come as somewhat of a shock. For me, the Chelsea man still has qualities which make his inclusion a no-brainer. Without meaning to sound cliché, Terry’s a player who’s willing to put his head where others would shy away with their feet. He’d throw himself in front of a life-threatening Ashley Williams clearance if it meant his team would win the ball back. He’s experienced, he’s a leader and he organises a backline as well as anyone English football has ever seen.

It’s also worth noting that no team has ever won the Premier League without a British mainstay in the heart of the defence. In a hypothetical situation in which my Premier League Best XI was actually competing in the Premier League, John Terry would provide the British backbone that would lead them to victory.

Left-back: Leighton Baines (Everton)

England have been incredibly blessed to have Ashley Cole at left-back for so many years, but I can’t help but feel he’s also been a hindrance to the development of our future squad. In my opinion, Leighton Baines has been Cole’s superior for two years now and should have been handed his chance in the national team much earlier. He’s more than capable at the back and has created more goalscoring chances (69) than any other player in Europe’s top five leagues this season. An easy choice.

Defensive midfielder: Yaya Toure (Manchester City)

Everyone has heard the age-old ‘unstoppable force versus the immovable object’ paradox and wondered which would come out on top. If you ask me, the only way to know for sure is to clone Yaya Toure and have him run towards himself at full speed. If one Yaya collided with another, the universe would probably cease to exist. He’s not your classic defensive midfielder by any means – he’s much more of a box-to-box player – but he’s the only man I’d want acting as the engine in my midfield. If I was to put together a world XI, Yaya would probably still make the cut.

Defensive midfielder: Michael Carrick (Manchester United)

I was asked to describe Michael Carrick in five words recently. I replied “Supremely talented and horrifically under-rated.” Carrick has been pulling the strings in the Manchester United midfield for years, but fans of rival clubs still refuse to acknowledge his simple brilliance. Whether he’s making short passes to keep possession or making incisive through-balls to aid the attack, you always know you’re going to get a consistent performance out of Carrick if you get him on the ball. When creating a ‘dream team’ it’s easy to get carried away and include a midfield full of flair players, but every team needs a Carrick to sit in the middle with his sleeves rolled up, doing the subtle stuff.

Attacking midfielder [right]: Juan Mata (Chelsea)

Although goal and assist statistics aren’t everything for a modern attacking midfielder, Juan Mata’s are tremendously impressive and it’s impossible to look past them. He’s currently joint seventh in the Premier League’s top goalscorerschart and it’s safe to assume he’s only second to Steven Gerrard on assists because he’s started six fewer games. In all competitions this season Mata has an unbelievable return of 10 goals and 10 assists in 23 starts. I toyed with the idea of including Gareth Bale in his place and reshuffling my midfield in order to add a different dimension to my team, but excluding Mata would have been criminal.

Attacking midfielder [centre]: Santi Cazorla (Arsenal)

Santi Cazorla is probably my favourite player in the Premier League. You could watch him game after game and still not know his exact position or which is his predominant foot. His intelligence, versatility and ambidexterity make him an absolute nightmare for opposing teams to contain because it’s impossible to keep track of him. The way he can ghost into spaces, manipulate his body and form attacks sometimes leaves me wondering if he’s a T-1000. I’m not saying he actually is a T-1000 – because he probably isn’t – I’m just saying it would make an awful lot of sense if he was…

Attacking midfielder [left]: David Silva (Manchester City)

David Silva is the third and final prong of my Spanish attacking midfield trident. Although he isn’t blessed with the ambidexterity of Cazorla, Silva still manages to create magic no matter where he picks the ball up. The Manchester City playmaker’s unparalleled vision and ability to judge the weight of a pass allowed him to create more goalscoring chances (108) than any other Premier League midfielder in 2012. As well as leading the tally for the calendar year, he leads the tally for the 2012/13 season, creating 53 chances at an average of 2.9 per game. No Premier League Best XI is complete without him. As far as I’m concerned, he’s the best player in England, when he’s on form.

Striker: Robin van Persie (Manchester United)

Every single night I wake up in cold sweats, pleading with myself to forgive Arsenal for letting Robin van Persie leave for a rival club and every single night I can’t do it. It will hurt me too much to go into detail about his ability and efficiency, but he’s the 11th and final player in my Premier League Best XI. As far as out-and-out strikers go, he’s only behind Radamel Falcao and Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

[Do you agree with FourFourTom? Click here to share this team on Twitter and join the debate]

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FourFourTom is a football writer (and Arsenal fan). Follow him on Twitter here.

Best of the best: here’s a Twitter selection of the #PLBestXI

CNN’s Piers Morgan tweeted his #PLBestXI. Here it is…

Here you go @paddypower : Hart, Sagna, Vidic, Kompany, Cole, Fellaini, Wilshere, Bale, Suarez, Van Pursestrings, Rooney #PLbestXI—
Piers Morgan (@piersmorgan) January 04, 2013

Southampton legend and football pundit Matt Le Tissier gave us his #PLBestXI too…

@paddypowerblog hart zabaletta kompany vidic baines bale gerrard lampard rvp suarez aguero—
Matt Le Tissier (@mattletiss7) January 04, 2013

Glynn Hyslop’s #PLBestXI is an attacking 4-3-3 formation…

@paddypowerblog #PLbestXI Hart,Rafael,Terry,Vidic,Baines,Y toure, Fellanai,Bale,Rvp,Suarez,Rooney—
glynn hyslop (@beauhyslop) January 04, 2013

Avi Ramrakka opts for a very debatable centre-back pairing in his #PLBestXI…

@paddypowerblog (4-3-3) Begovic, Rafael, Evans, Shawcross, Baines, Mata, Carrick, Cazorla, Suarez, Michu, Van Persie #PLbestXI—
Avi Ramrakka (@avi_ram94) January 04, 2013

Miller’s #PLBestXI appears to be a bit bias…

@paddypowerblog #PLbestXI De gea, Rafael, vidic, Evans, Evra, cleverly, Carrick, young, Rooney, RVP, Hernandez—
Miller (@mufcmiller) January 04, 2013

While the concept of #PLBestXI appears to have gone over Jonathan McNamara’s head…

@paddypowerblog Guzan Guzan Guzan Guzan Guzan Guzan Guzan Guzan Guzan Guzan Guzan #PLbestXI—
Jonathan McNamara (@Anfield_Row) January 04, 2013

ON SON’: Sebastien Basson has been scoring as well as defending for Norwich  (Pic: Getty Images)

By Andrew Robinson | Premier League

Norwich’s disastrous start to the Premier League season when they were beaten 5-0 by Fulham is well behind them now and they have flown up the table in recent weeks on the back of some stellar results.

Since their 4-1 hammering away at Chelsea at the start of October, Delia Smith’s boys have been cooking on gas.

They’ve beaten Arsenal at home, scraped a draw away at Aston Villa, took all three points off a tough-to-beat Stoke side and drew with Southampton, Everton and Reading.

The icing on the cake was a 1-0 win over league leaders Manchester United and they have recorded two successive victories after a 2-1 win over Sunderland and a 4-3 thriller against Swansea.

It’s no coincidence that Chris Hughton’s side’s run of form has come on the back of a run of solid defensive performances and they are 6/5 with Paddy Power to continue to run against Wigan on Saturday.

Centre-back Sebastien Bassong has been chipping in at both ends with goals against Everton, Sunderland and Swansea in recent weeks and his partnership with Michael Turner is going from strength to strength.

Hughton was under pressure after that 5-0 loss to Fulham and when Norwich shipped nine goals in two games against Liverpool and Chelsea – but they have now turned things round.

Norwich are solid at the back which allows Wes Hoolahan, Grant Holt and Robert Snodgrass an amount of attacking freedom further up the field.

Norwich landed with a bump last Tuesday when Villa went to Carrow Road in the Capital One Cup and came away with a 4-1 win , but the Canaries will be eager to prove the stuffing hasn’t been knocked out of their season.

And Hughton, a former Spurs and Republic of Ireland defender in his playing days was quick to get his players concentrating on the job in hand at Wigan.

We need to make sure we are back to where we’ve been, back to basics, for what is a big game against Wigan on Saturday. We need to make sure we get rest and recovery over the next few days and come out fighting against a good Wigan side.

Wigan  go into the game after a 2-2 draw with QPR and a 3-0 thumping by Newcastle after being reduced to 10 men after just 12 minutes at St James’ Park.

Even though they have just one win in the last six, they have been playing some good stuff, with Jordi Gomez, Aruna Kone and Franco di Santo developing a good understanding.

Roberto Martinez’s men are 23/10 to pick up a much-needed win and the draw is the same price with Paddy Power.

Wigan’s defence will be weakened by Maynor Figueroa’s suspension for that challenge against Newcastle and injuries to Gary Cladwell and Ivan Ramis.

The weakened backline and the form of Ali Al-Habsi could mean another thriller is on the cards.

• Betting: Norwich v Wigan
• Betting: Premier League coupon  

Football

Brendan Rodgers has warned Raheem Sterling not to get too greedy as the 17-year-old wants double the 20k per week that the Reds are prepared to offer him according to the Daily Mirror.  The winger has started 13 of Liverpool’s 14 Premier League games this season and is due to sign a new contract on his 18th birthday on Saturday week.

The Reds are 2/5 to beat Southampton at home on Saturday after their seven match unbeaten run came to an end against Spurs in mid-week.

Rafa Benitez is feeling the heat at Chelsea (10/11) already and the temperature will be ratcheted up a few notches for their visit to West Ham in Saturday’s early kick-off at Upton Park.

Two points and no goals wasn’t in the brochure when Roman Abramovich came calling after Roberto Di Matteo’s dismissal and Chelsea need to score – and win – quickly if they aren’t to give the two Manchester clubs a soft lead in the title race.

The much-maligned Fernando Torres has scored six times in six league games against West Ham and Benitez desperately needs him to put one in the onion sack tomorrow to lift the pressure off both.

Manchester United (2/5) look to extend their lead at the top when they face Reading away in the late fixture on Saturday evening while cross-town rivals City (8/15) take on Everton who are the last side to beat the Citizens at the Etihad before their 36-game unbeaten home run started.

And just as City look like they’ve rediscovered last season’s form, the Sun reports that Jose Mourinho is waiting in the wings to take over at the club should Mancini depart.

• Premier League coupon

Racing

It’s day two of the Hennessy meeting at Newbury and David Pipe’s impressive novice chaser Dynaste (2.05) who hacked up at Cheltenham earlier this month faces six rivals (2.05) as education over the bigger obstacles continues.

Saturday’s Hennessy Gold Cup favourite Bobs Worth won this contest last season ahead of RSA glory at the Festival and Nicky Henderson’s runner will face 18 rivals in tomorrow’s big race.

Musselburgh, Doncaster and Wolverhampton are the support cards in the UK while there’s racing at Thurles and  Dundalk in Ireland.

• Betting: All Friday’s cards, form and odds
• Betting: Hennessy Gold Cup betting

The former Inter Milan striker followed his boss Roberto Mancini to Manchester City after falling foul of Inter supremo Jose Mourinho with his crazy antics and general madness.

But how Mancini must wish he’d deleted Mario’s number at times as his sometimes impressive performances on the pitch are matched by some very strange behaviour off it.

Mancini swore Mario would never play for the club again towards the end of last season but with Aguero injured there’s a chance he could feature against Liverpool at Anfield on Sunday.

Here’s a taste of what Liverpool or his Manchester City manager and team-mates could be in for.

1. Mario on song

Let’s start with what he can do with a compilation of what Balotelli can do when he puts his mind to it…

2. The camera never lies

After high-fiving the kids in the tunnel Mario fancies a go of club photographer Sharon Latham’s camera. Trouble is it’s still attached to her neck.

3. Mario ‘Bibatelli’

For a player that can tie defences in knots at times he’s having way too much trouble for a grown man with the training bib.

4. The icing on the cake

At first he doesn’t seem arsed about decorating the Christmas cake but in the end Delia Smith would be proud of. Not that Norwich could afford him mind.

5. Free for all?

City captain Vincent Kompany has to order Mario to let Aleksandr Kolarov take a free-kick against Sunderland last season.

6. Paying the penalty

Just in case you think something was lost in translation with Kolarov here’s Balotelli trying to take a penalty kick off Samuel Eto’o in his native Italy.

7. Gona live my life

Does the postman celebrate when he delivers a letter? Mario delivers.

• Betting: Liverpool v Manchester City
• Betting: Liverpool Specials

TARGET: Clint Dempsey scored 17 goals last season for Fulham in the Premier League (pic: Getty)

By Lee Dover

Liverpool have taken a painful tumble after being among the top dogs of English football just a few seasons ago.

There are plenty of places where fans can point the finger – the fiasco that was the Hicks and Gillett takeover, the failure to build on Champions League glory and King Kenny’s less than glorious reign last season.

But getting a striker to match the exploits of Ian Rush, Robbie Fowler and Michael Owen at the famous Anfield club seems to be the most alarming problem.

Liverpool’s top scorer last season was Luis Suarez, but his 11 Premier League goals was a world apart from Robin Van Persie’s 30 strikes even though he did have to serve an eight-match suspension.

Stats like these will have the Kop thinking back to the days when Owen and Fowler were scoring goals for fun at Anfield. Or even when Fernando Torres knew that the aim of the game was to put a football into the net.

Liverpool fans desperately need their side to wake from its slumber and a striker who will inspire this resurgence must be the priority.  Here’s five…

1) Clint Dempsey

The Fulham target man has been strongly linked with a move North since before the new season began.

The American international took to the Premier League like a duck to water when he played his first game for the Cottagers Fulham against Tottenham Hotspur back in January 2007. Fulham boss Martin Jol dropped Dempsey from his squad last week because of Brendan Rodgers’ making public Liverpool’s interest.

Dempsey’s 17 Premier League goals last season saw the American finish as joint fourth top scorer in the top flight. Americans may refer to the beautiful game as ‘soccer’ but at least there are a few of them who know how to let their feet do the talking.

2) Florent Sinama-Pongolle

Florent Sinama-Pongolle has apparently tired of life in Portugal and is hoping to have a second stab at Premier League football.

The French international was one of Liverpool’s best young prospects when he was a part of the 2001 squad. However, he was too inexperienced to make a lasting impression at Anfield and was packed his bags for Recreativo de Huelva in 2006.

The move proved to be just what Sinama-Pongolle needed. He was top scorer at the Spanish club for two seasons straight, before enjoying further success at Atletico Madrid and Sporting Lisbon. With the Reds about to sign Real Madrid midfielder Nuri Sahin, Sinama-Pongolle could be the a link man between midfield and attack.

3) Gaston Ramirez

The old saying goes that if at first you don’t succeed, then try and try again (like the above). This is what Brendan Rodgers should be thinking about Gaston Ramirez.

Premier League new-boys Southampton looked to have secured the Uruguayan’s services having beaten off fierce competition in the transfer window from Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur. However, now that the deal between Ramirez and the Saints has collapsed the Reds have an opportunity to snap up a 21-year-old who everyone believes has a big future in the game.

Ramirez could prove the perfect striking partner for compatriot Suarez and usher in another golden age for the Kop.

4) Dimitar Berbatov

Ok, ok, controversial. It’s bordering on cruelty to look at Dimitar Berbatov watching so much Premier League action from the sidelines now at Manchester United. And it looks like the Bulgarian international has been pushed further down the pecking order at Old Trafford after Van Persie joined from Arsenal last week.

Surely Berbatov’s professional pride will demand he be allowed play football at either Old Trafford or at least shake himself to go somewhere else.

Where better to get on the team-sheet than at Anfield? With a £5 million price tag the man who United signed for £30m from Spurs could prove one of the steals of late summer.

5) Jermain Defoe

England international Defoe has a choice to make before the transfer window snaps shut.

His future at Tottenham Hotspur is up in the air with the recent signing of Emmanuel Adebayor at White Hart Lane on a permanent basis. And rumours persist that Leandro Damiao is in line to become Andre Villas-Boas’ next big signing.

Defoe would almost certainly bring the much-needed attacking finesse to Anfield and proved he still has an eye for goal when scoring against Newcastle last weekend. He also netted for England in a friendly international against Italy a few days before that.

This would be the perfect opportunity for Liverpool to bring in a striker still at the peak of his powers.

• Betting: Liverpool v Man City

Arsenal

Summer Summary

It’s been a familiar off-season for Arsenal fans. The optimism of having two big deals done early on has been largely eroded by the potential loss of a club legend. Robin van Persie’s departure from the Emirates is a huge blow but with Cazorla, Podolski and Giroud on board we’ll have to wait to find out just how unrealistic next season’s unrealistic expectations are. The pre-season friendlies unearthed a few more young talents that make for an optimistic future, but probably still a trophy-less present.

Something to be positive about

The signings of Santi Cazorla, Lukas Podolski and, to a lesser extent, Oliver Giroud. The German didn’t enjoy the best of times at Bayern Munich, but his international record shows he’s a quality player who has the pace and moaniness to fit seamlessly into the Arsenal system. Oliver Giroud doesn’t have the same distinguished history so his success is a little more uncertain. Spanish international Cazorla played a vital role in Malaga qualifying for the Champions League and the 2007 Spanish Player of the Year will also fit perfectly in to Wenger’s passing style of play.

Alongside Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, the (hopefully) returning Jack Wilshire and (hopefully) staying Robin van Persie, it could make for some spectacular football.

Something to be a bit worried about

Apart from occasionally trying too hard to score the most beautiful goal in history, Arsenal’s attack has rarely been the problem in the last few years. The defence has been flimsy as John Terry’s reasons for using those words at Anton Ferdinand. There are few signs of Arsene Wenger making the couple of big signings they would need to remedy the situation in the short term, If everyone stays fit, the Gunners will have a useful rear-guard, but this is Arsenal, so they won’t all stay fit. Their lack of defensive strength in depth could undermine their efforts at forward progress.

An optimistic season bet

If you can’t be widely optimistic about the upcoming season in July, when can you? Arsenal to defy the pessimism and win the Premier League is 11/1.

A more realistic season bet

Milking the cash cow that is Champions League football is a crucial part of Arsenal’s financial strategy.Winning trophies less so. They’re 8/15 to claim a Top 4 Finish and get another go on UEFA’s bountiful udders.

New Arrivals

Olivier Giroud (Montpellier, £13m)
Lukas Podoloski (Cologne, £11m)
Santi Cazorla (Malaga, £16.5m)

Packing their bags

Robin van Persie (Man Utd, £24m)
Manuel Almunia (released),
Gavin Hoyte (released)
Jeffrey Monakana (Preston, free)
Joel Campbell (Real Betis, loan)
Denilson (Sao Paulo, loan)
Tom Cruise (Torquay, free)
Benik Afobe (Bolton, loan)

Liverpool

Summer Summary

Things have been pretty frantic around Anfield since it was confirmed Kenny Dalglish was getting the ‘thanks, but no thanks’ treatment for winning the Carling Cup. Not at all going along with the ‘who’s hot right now’ tactic that resulted in Roy Hodgson arriving at Anfield, the Reds opted for Brendan Rodgers, the Swansea manager who just happened to be so hot right now. Since then, it’s been feverish speculation about who the new boss would bring in, feverish speculation about why the new boss hasn’t brought anyone in and more recently, more feverish speculation about the speculation. Rodgers has already indicated he won’t be going all ‘Chelsea’ with the new signings, but has admitted the club are working on a few deals before the transfer window shuts. If Andy Carroll is allowed leave, temporarily or otherwise, they’ll need major reinforcements up front.

Something to be positive about

Liverpool have appointed a young manager with a clear style of football he wants. Some of the performances last season showed there’s plenty of talent in the Liverpool squad and if he can get the players buying into his vision, they should easily improve on last season’s scrapping it out with Fulham for eighth.

Something to be a bit worried about

As much as Rodgers impressed by getting a small club into the Premier League and then keeping them there for a season, that’s also something Paul Jewell achieved and he hasn’t exactly a managerial messiah. Like the Hodgson era, it may just turn out that Rodgers isn’t cut out for a job of Liverpool proportions and that pretty much catapults Liverpool right back to the position they were when Graeme Souness was in charge. If it’s another season of stagnation at Anfield, the club’s crown jewels will be throwing flirty glances in the direction of the Etihad, Old Trafford, Stamford Bridge, and further afield and that even a mini-exodus would make the next few seasons very difficult.

An optimistic season bet

In fairness, Rodgers did work wonders with Swansea. With a bigger squad and theoretically better players they could make a marked improvement. That’s unlikely to translate into their first league title in 23 years, but backing Liverpool +18 points at 16/1 on the Premier League Handicap could be the way to go.

A more realistic season bet

The club have said that Rodgers doesn’t have to provide Champions League football to keep his job, but everyone knows it would definitely help. If Arsenal and Spurs were relieved of a talisman each, that job could become slightly easier and 21/10 Liverpool to finish in the Top 4 wouldn’t be out of the question.

New Arrivals

Fabio Borini (Roma, £10m)
Joe Allen (Swansea, £15m)
Oussama Assaidi (Heerenveen, £3m)

Packing their bags

Dirk Kuyt (Fenerbache, £1m)
Fabio Aurelio (Gremio, free)
DavidAmoo (Preston North End, free)
Stephen Darby (released)
Maxi Rodriguez (Newell’s Old Boys, undisclosed)

Chelsea

Summer Summary

When little Roman Abramovich was growing up in the USSR, he dreamed of one day taking advantage of the disarray in the USSR’s transition to capitalism to buy up large amounts of Russia’s natural resources cheaply. Then, in a strange addendum to that dream, he also hoped to one day he would use the money he made from that to finance a random English club’s climb to the summit of Europe. With the Champions League in the bag, the Chelsea owner seems to have rediscovered his love affair with football and let Roberto di Matteo crack open the piggy bank in celebration. The club’s negotiators have been busy hammering out deals for several of the world’s biggest rising stars.

Something to be positive about

All those great players you bought. If only a couple of them take to the Premier League in their first season, the overall performance of the team should improve a couple of levels. Plus, Fernando Torres isn’t looking like a complete donkey of late, so maybe he’ll finally look like a £50 million striker.

Something to be a bit worried about

Roberto Di Matteo. Despite being joining a very select band of managers who have guided English clubs to European Cup glory, there are doubts about his actual ability. Talk of the players running the team dogged the club last season and although that’s likely to be mainly waffle, it reminds you who still holds the balance of power in the Chelsea dressing room.

If that wasn’t enough of a lingering time-bomb, there haven’t been any defensive purchases. That will probably work out ok if Chelsea suddenly acquire the Barcelona skill of hardly ever giving the ball away, but if – as seems likely – they don’t, they will still be vulnerable to pace, set-pieces and opposition players abusing John Terry for being a man-slut. Maybe the Blues don’t need too much by way of defenders. Everybody being fit and more familiar with each other might be enough. Or maybe the defenders they have are all over-rated. They conceded 46 goals in the league last term and that would be enough to have Jose Mourinho spinning in his grey wool coat.

An optimistic season bet

If all the players gel instantly and something vaguely miraculous happens to seal up the defence, then a challenge for their first title since 2010 isn’t out of the question. Chelsea to win the league is a 5/1 shot. Let’s ignore the very real evidence that suggests it’s not so simple and go with that.

A more realistic season bet

Chelsea to win the Premier League without Manchester City and Manchester United at 5/6.
Yes, it’s a made-up betting market with no actual silverware, but who needs silverware when you’ve got loads and loads of money in your bank account. That’s actually the same attitude that Emmanuel Adebayor has used for picking his clubs down through the years and he’s done alright for himself.

New Arrivals:

Marko Marin (Werder Bremen, £7m)
Eden Hazard (Lille, £32m)
Thorgan Hazard (Lile, Undisclosed)
Oscar (Sao Paulo, £25m)

Packing their bags:

Didier Drogba (Shanghai Shenhua, free),
Salomon Kalou (released)
Jacob Mellis (Barnsley, free)
Jose Bosingwa (released),
Thibaut Courtois (Atletico Madrid, loan)

Tottenham Hotspur

Summer Summary

There’s been the usual mix of transfer comings, goings and wild speculating, but chief amongst the off-season developments is the retirement of Ledley King.The club captain’s succumbing to injury is sad, but predictable. It’s remarkable he’s been able to keep going at such a high level considering his knees are about as healthy as an obsession with Kerry Katona. After a few weeks of hammering out the contract details, Andre Villas-Boas finally took charge and almost immediately started moulding the squad into his vision. That vision apparently involves Jan Vertonghen and Gylfi Sigurdsson and they are welcome additions to the squad.

Something to be positive about

Spurs have got their hands on one of the best young managers in Europe. Obviously Chelsea thought they had the same thing and that didn’t work out, but you would think he’ll get more time and less abuse from John Terry at White Hart Lane. Under Villas-Boas, Spurs will probably be a little less gung-ho than they were under Harry Redknapp and although the entertainment factor at White Hart Lane may go down, the points haul could well go up.

Something to be a bit worried about

Losing Luka Modricwould be a big blow if it actually happens. There aren’t many players of his class in world football and those that there are probably don’t want to play for Tottenham. There’s also a concern that what happened to Andre Villas-Boas at Chelsea wasn’t the result of a lack of support from players and had more to do with him being a bit crap.

An optimistic season bet

Winning the league in your first season at a club is a huge ask, but we all remember a certain other fashionably jacketed, Portuguese hot young coaching talent rocking up to London and achieving it, so why not? Well, the answer is Villas-Boas doesn’t have the GDP of a small pacific nation to spend on transfers, so that’s why. For the moment, Tottenham to be the Top London Club at 9/2 has the right balance of optimism and realism.

A more realistic season bet

Well maybe this season finishing in the Champions League places would actually result in the club getting a place in the Champions League. Spurs are 7/4 for a Top 4 Finish and maybe this time it’ll land them a ticket to Europe’s premier cash cow.

New arrivals

Jan Vertonghen (Ajax, £10m)
Gylfi Sigurdsson (Hoffenheim, £8m

Packing their bags

NikoKranjcar (Dynamo Kiev, undisclosed)
VedranCorluka (Lokomotiv Moscow, undisclosed)
Ryan Nelsen(Queens Park Rangers, free)
Louis Saha (Released)
Ben Alnwick(Released)
BonganiKhumalo (PAOK Salonika, Loan)
Ledley King (Retired)
Steven Pienaar (Everton, £4500000)

• Betting: Premier League Matches
• Betting: Premier League Outright
• Tottenham Team Page: stats and facts

Newcastle

Summer Summary

A successful summer for the Magpies would be getting to 12.01am on 1st September with the bulk of their prized Ba, Cisse, Tiote, Cabaye and Ben Arfa collection intact. Adding a couple more bargain basement buys to the mix wouldn’t hurt either and Newcastle have spent the summer trying to recreate last year’s successful policy of getting Alan Carr’s dad to scout some of the best and most affordable talent in Europe. If it turns out they’re only buying replacements for players snapped up by the vultures with large cheque-books, then building on last season will be difficult.

Something to be positive about

It’s hard to say until the ‘will they-won’t they-just do something will ya!?’ situation surrounding their key players gets resolved. Whatever the outcome of the various transfer sagas, Alan Pardew will still be in charge and he’s normally good for a couple of seasons’ worth of progress before things start to go downhill.

Something to be a bit worried about

‘Those damns clubs, thinking they can come along with their money and take our best players’. Even though that’s what Newcastle did to teams who happened to be below them on the food chain, the Toon Army will feel a little aggrieved if they have their prize jewels plucked from their grasp without having time to bring un reinforcements. Then again, a big team came in at the last minute to get Andy Carroll without leaving time for Newcastle to find a suitable replacement and we know who did better out of that deal.

An optimistic season bet

It’ll be tough, but a Top 4 Finish (most likely 4th) and the agony of hoping a Premier League team doesn’t win the Champions League is the obvious destination for the Alan Pardew project. It’s a 12/1 shot, but Liverpool to do the same is 21/10. That seems about as wrong as saying you watch Geordie Shore for the intellectual debate.

A more realistic season bet

A more achievable bet would be Newcastle to Finish in the Top 6 at 16/5. The prize of Europa League football is about as appealing as an invitation to learn about Scientology, but it’s European football and that’s better than nothing. Some people think.

New Arrivals

Romain Amalfitano (Reims, free)
Gael Bigirimana (Coventry, undisclosed)

Packing their bags

Philip Airey (released)
Ryan Donaldson (released)
Danny Guthrie (released)
Tamas Kadar (released)
Peter Lovenkrands (released)
Alan Smith (released)
Leon Best (Blackburn, £3m)
Fraser Forster (Celtic, £2m)

Aston Villa

Summer Summary

It says a lot that many Aston Villa fans will have spent a large part of the off-season looking in the business pages rather than the sports pages. Questions have arisen about Randy Lerner’s commitment to the club and the lack of transfer funds. The owner recently sold off controlling stake in NFL side, the Cleveland Browns. The upshot of that decision remains to be seen. Speculation suggests some of the proceeds could go towards moving Villa up the table, whilst other rumours say the money is going towards the ‘Randy Lerner Luxury Holiday Fund’ and it’s a sign he’s planning to distance himself from his sporting investments.

Plus, Paul Lambert has arrived.

Something to be positive about

Alec McLeish isn’t in charge! That’s a nice start. Plus Emile Heskey no longer counts as the cavalry! No-one was expecting Aston Villa to suddenly become the Harlem Globetrotters under the leadership of Big Eck, but having a good long flirt with relegation last season was just abysmal. Considering his Birmingham connections, his grace period was always going to be short. Paul Lambert has been snapped up after two promotions and one year of serene Premier League safety.

Darren Bent returns from injury and most of the other good players had the summer off, so in theory at least, if they are any good, they shouldn’t be able to use fatigue as an excuse.

Something to be a bit worried about

Maybe McLeish was a convenient scapegoat. What if the truth is the squad is just very over-rated? Darren Bent, Gabriel Agbonlahor, Stephen Ireland and Charles N’Zogbia are all quality players when in the mood, but too often the mood strikes them as regularly as Emile Heskey found the net.

The incoming transfers thus far have been underwhelming too. Normally the capture of a Dutch international is a cause for celebration, but anyone who saw the Netherlands at Euro 2012 will treat the arrival of Ron Vlaar with cautious optimism at best. Events in Polkraine won’t make it into Shay Given’s scrapbook of career highlights and the fact that one of Villa’s star performers of last season has suffered such a dramatic dip in form is another worry

An optimistic season bet

Maybe Paul Lambert is a budding managerial messiah and all the top quality players simply had an off-season perfectly in unison. People have played much dumber bets than Villa to finish in the Top 6 at 16/1. Not much dumber mind.

A more realistic season bet

It’s baby-steps for Villa after last season’s low. It’s easily the biggest job of Lambert’s managerial career and he’ll need time to work his magic. It’s not the most spectacular of ambitions, but Villa to be Top Midlands Club at 11/8 would be represent progress given the success of Stoke and West Brom in recent seasons.

New Arrivals

Ron Vlaar (Feyenoord)
Matthew Lowton (Sheffield United, £3m)
Brett Holman (AZ Alkmaar, free)
Karim El Ahmadi (Feyenoord)

Packing their bags

Emile Heskey (released)
Carlos Cuellar (released, Sunderland)
James Collins (West Ham, undisclosed)

Sunderland

Summer Summary

There was one major arrival at the Stadium of Light this summer. Sadly Bruce Springsteen’s skills are more suited to producing stadium rock anthems than keeping a midfield ticking over and outside of that, it’s been pretty quiet. Craig Gordon has been released on a free. Nicklas Bendtner and his Paddy Power Lucky Pants have returned to Arsenal. Carlos Cuellar has been snapped up on a free from Aston Villa. Told you it was quiet.

Something to be positive about

The guts of the squad that performed brilliantly at times last season remains and there’s every chance Bendtner will be back before the transfer window slams shut. The players will get the benefit of basking in Martin O’Neill’s motivational greatness for an entire pre-season so hopefully that will translate into a more consistent performance.

Something to be a bit worried about

The honeymoon period that began when Martin O’Neill took over in December lasted a while, but it seemed to come to a shuddering halt in the last couple of months of the season. The Black Cats ended the season without a win in their last eight Premier League matches. It could have been the players thinking a little too hard about their summer holidays having avoided relegation, but there’s a chance Martin’s miracles aren’t working as well as they used to.

An optimistic season bet

After getting his first pre-season with Sunderland, you’d expect O’Neill will have his team more organised and Martin O’Neill-like for the new season. It would require some sudden improvement, but 10/1 to win the Betting without the Big Six isn’t totally outlandish.

A more realistic season bet

11/10 to Finish in the Top 10.

New arrivals

Carlos Cuellar (Aston Villa, free)

Packing their bags

Craig Gordon (released)
Jordan Cook (released)
AsamoahGyan (Al Ain undisclosed fee)
George McCartney (West Ham, undisclosed)
Marcos Angeleri (Estudiantes, undisclosed)
Michael Turner (Norwich, undisclosed)

Stoke

Summer Summary

The biggest transfer saga Stoke have been involved with over the off season is a potential swoop for free agent and benchwarmer extraordinaire, Michael Owen. It says a lot for the progress the Potters have made under Tony Pulis that his signing would pretty make no difference to the expectations surrounding the group. He’s a name and will probably attract more attention than the club are accustomed to, but the reality is they already have strikers who are equally, if not more, threatening than a 32-year old who has started 18 games (six of which were in the league) in the last three seasons. Robert Huth being diagnosed with meningitis has thrown a late spanner in the works. He has been a huge part of the club’s progress and a prolonged absence would be hard to cover for.

Something to be positive about

One of Tony Pulis’s great skills is producing good results without ever really making any of his players looking especially appealing to other clubs. ‘Arsenal in £15 million plunge for Glenn Whelan’ is never a tabloid headline we’re very likely to see, no matter how far Stoke move up the table. Yet again, the Potters look like they’ll hold on to their key players and if they do that, they should steer well clear of the relegation scrap and have more than one eye on booking another place in Europe.

Something to be a bit worried about

For the first time since taking charge of the Potters for a second time, Tony Pulis came under some fire for Stoke’s poor run of form in the second half of the season. They won four Premier League games in 2012 and 9 points out of a possible 33. In fairness, it may have been down to the fact they were safe from relegation early on in the season and the intensity was lacking thereafter. But sometimes a manager can only take a team so far and Stoke fans will be hoping that point hasn’t been reached just yet. They were the league’s lowest scorers last year and that needs to be improved upon.

An optimistic season bet

Stoke to win the league with a +37 point handicap at 16/1. If they can avoid the second half of the season and keep going all the way to the line, they should improve on their points total and with a further 37 points to be added to it, that could put them very close to the top of the handicap table.

A more realistic season bet

For all the obvious progress Stoke have made since arriving in the Premier League, they haven’t broken their way into the Top 10 come the end of the season. They’ve finished 12th, 11th, 13th and 14thin the last four seasons and they’re 15/8 to end the season in the top half of the table.

New arrivals

Jamie Ness (Rangers, free)
Michael Kightly (Wolves, £3m)

Packing their bags

Jonathan Woodgate (Middlesbrough, free)
Andrew Davies (Bradford, free)
Salif Diao (released), Ricardo Fuller (released)
Louis Moult (released)
Tom Soares (released)

JOL-Y OLD SOUL: Everyone’s favourite Dutch uncle seeks another top 10 finish

Fulham

Summer Summary

The success of Fulham’s off-season will largely depend on how many of their stars they manage to keep hold of. Clint Dempsey and Moussa Dembele have been mentioned as potential targets for the Premier League’s big boys and obviously going into the new season without them wouldn’t be ideal. Without having a huge war-chest, Martin Jol has recruited well and a couple of the other players linked with a move such as Ryan Babel and Romelu Lukaku, on loan, wouldn’t be the biggest of risks. All in all it’s been good, but until the transfer window closes, nothing will be taken for granted.

Something to be positive about

In the first few weeks of last season, the appointment of Jol looked like the most questionable decision Mohamed Al-Fayed made in a while. That’s really saying something just months after he decided to plonk a Michael Jackson statue outside the ground. After a slow start, things improved and Fulham finished level on points with Liverpool. Granted that’s not the challenge it once, but it was progress. The signings of Hugo Rodallega and Mladen Petric aren’t pulse-cranker-uppers, but they could be prove to be quietly shrewd.

Something to be a bit worried about

It’s all looking pretty good for Fulham. Providing they can hold on to Dempsey and Dembele, the season should go well and even if they lose one of the two, they should still clear of relegation. If you’re an ultra-pessimistic Cottager, then maybe you could view the loss of Danny Murphy as a concern, but in truth his influence had waned in the last couple of seasons.

An optimistic season bet

Jol has built a solid defensive foundation upon which shouldn’t crumble, even if they do lose one or two of their stars. If you can leave aside the semantic issues related to it, backing Fulham at 10/1 without the Big Six is a good idea.

A more realistic season bet

6/4 to finish in the Top 10. They’ve done it in three of the last four seasons. Is it really that unlikely?

New arrivals

Mladen Petric (Hamburg, free)
George Williams (MK Dons, undisclosed)
Hugo Rodallega (Wigan, free)
SaschaRiether (Cologne, loan)

Packing their bags

Andrew Johnson (QPR, free)
Danny Murphy (Blackburn, free)
Bjorn Helge Riise (released)
Orlando Sa (released)

• Betting: Premier League Matches
• Betting: Premier League Outright
• Fulham Team Page: stats and facts