SHUT IT SERGIO: Tiger let his golf do the talkin’ at the Players Championship (pic: Inpho)

Golf | Lining your pockets

Tiger Woods settled another score at Sawgrass at the weekend putting gobby Sergio Garcia in his place.

Spaniard Garcia’s 76 left him outside the top five and, from being in contention to win £1.2 million, he collected under £200,000.

But golf punters shut up Paddy Paddy too as 12 players returned cold, hard, cash to customers’ pockets and online accounts.

Paddy was paying the first six places in pre-tournament for the seventh time this year. So while Tiger Woods won by two shots, another six tied for shared joint second and third in golf’s fifth major which demonstrated the value of golf betting with Paddy Power.

So if you punted Kevin Streelman (tipped up by blog columnist Lawrence Donegan), Jeff Maggert, David Lingmerth, Martin Laird, Henrik Stenson or Ryan Palmer with Paddy – then well done you. They brought home the each-way money.

And if you’ve been missing out on the best golf betting in the business – pay attention…

• Paddy Power has equalled or beaten Ladbrokes in 80 per cent and William Hill 75 per cent of the time in markets so far this year. Neither has offered a single extra place this season.
• Paddy Power’s Money-Back Specials are returned in cold, hard cash unlike some of our competitors.

Not convinced?

What about Paddy’s Money-Back Special if your player birdied the 18th? If you backed Jeff Maggert, Rory Sabbatini, Jason Day, Chris Stroud and Louis Oosthuizen with anyone other than Paddy Power you’ve only yourself to blame if feeling like a Leicester fan right about now. All five delivered with the flat stick to bring up the dirty dozen of players who made you money.

The US Tour swings on to the Byron Nelson Championship on Thursday while the European Tour stages the Volvo World Match Play Championship in Bulgaria. Paddy will give you Money Back in the Volvo World Match Play Championship if your player leads through 12 and fails to win.

• Betting : Golf Coupon 

TIGER WOODS: He ain’t no Monk

By Lawrence Donegan | The Players Championship

At this stage in the proceedings it has been fairly well established that Tiger Woods isn’t a monk but, still, it came as the something of a surprise to click on the well-known American celebrity gossip website USmagazine.com (I read it so you don’t have to) and find a report that the great man was tripping the light fantastic at a big celebrity event in New York on Monday night.

As US Magazine’s very own Woodward and Bernstein wrote: “Woods fell while walking up a small flight of stairs – and didn’t move from the spot until (Lindsay) Vonn, clenching her teeth and looking embarrassed, helped him up and guided him (swaying a bit as he walked) to the exit.”

Few Beers

Clearly there is nothing wrong with a grown man having a few beers on a night out with his girlfriend. However, when the gentleman in question is Tiger Woods and the big night out happens on the Monday of The Players Championship – the tournament that likes to call itself the fifth Major – questions need to be asked.

Needless to say when Woods appeared before the press at TPC Sawgrass on Tuesday morning, the questions were asked.

• Can you even talk about any tournament being a fifth major?
• Do you think you would have gone to a red carpet event in the week of a major championship?

Woods was both diplomatic and nimble in response but there was no denying his presence in New York and no escaping this essential truth: There is NO CHANCE he would be wandering down the red carpet three days before the start of a major championship.

Equally true – Woods doesn’t consider The Players to be a major championship. He doesn’t even like the tournament or the golf course it is played on, the Pete Dye-designed Stadium course at TPC Sawgrass.

PITCH AND PUTT: The infamous 17th hole separates the men from the boys

In this, the World No1 is not alone. Rory McIlroy has gone on record numerous times stating his dislike of the venue. A few years back Lee Westwood didn’t even bother turning up for the tournament, citing his indifference to the golf course and the event’s major championship pretensions. Phil Mickelson may have won there in 2007 but the Stadium course’s attractions are lost on him too.

Power and Flair

What all of the above players have in common – apart from their brilliance – is their ability to overwhelm any golf course with power and, when the occasion demands, flair. The problem, at least from the point of view of Woods and Co., is that the Stadium course doesn’t reward power or flair. It rewards caution and persistence. It looks kindly upon the risk-averse, upon those players for whom flair means the wide part of a trouser leg.

Even the medium-length hitters in the field will only need to hit their driver a handful of times over 18 holes. Sure, the lakes and ponds that are dotted around the course look great on television but as features on a championship golf course they are curse on those who seek excitement – why would a player go for the green in two on a par-five when the penalty for a marginal miss-hit is a wet ball and one (or possibly two) dropped shots?

Only a killjoy would deny the fun and excitement of the famous island green of the 17th hole. But let’s stand back and think logically for a moment - is it really right that a player can lose everything he has worked for all week on the 71st hole of a tournament, a par-three which is no more than a flick with a nine-iron? In 2007, the year Mickelson won, Sean O’Hair did exactly that, running up a quadruple bogey seven at the 17th hole on the final day, thereby ruining his chances.

Keep the faith

Look at the list of winners of The Players in recent years. Sure, Mickelson is in there, as is Sergio Garcia. But more often than not this is a venue that has rewarded the mid-table plodders.

Tim Clark (2010), Fred Funk (2005), Stephen Ames (2006) and KJ Choi (2011) have all won at TPC Sawgrass and the search for 2013’s winner must begin with a look at players of that ilk.

Matt Kuchar fits the bill perfectly.  He won The Players last year and could win again this year, except that no player has ever won this event in successive years. But there are plenty of others who could prevail – take your pick of one from 50. Better still, place your faith (and money) on someone like Brandt Snedeker or DA Points to win, with Kevin Streelman and Bill Haas as good each-way bets.

• The Joy of Six: Click here to see who punters have latched onto at Sawgrass 

Lawrence Donegan is the Guardian’s former golf correspondent. He is also author of the acclaimed book, Four Iron in the Soul, based on his experiences caddying for tour pro Ross Drummond. In the 1980s he was a bassist for the Bluebells and Lloyd Cole And The Commotions, but we forgive him for Young At Heart because he’s such a sound lad. Follow him on Twitter here.

It’s the best line-up since the Masters and a few also-rans at Augusta have been punted all week to do the business on a course that favours accuracy rather than power off the tee.

Here are the 6 you fancy to pull Paddy’s pants down.

1. Brandt Snedeker: 40/1

IN THE PINK: Is Brandt over his rib injury (pic: Inpho)

Brandt was in flying form at the start of the season - winning the AT&T at Pebble Beach in February - but a rib injury knocked him back a bit. He went into the final  day of the Masters as co-leader but a 75 meant the tailor wasn’t measuring him for the Green Jacket. Snedeker’s record at Sawgrass reads three missed cuts from his last three appearances but plenty of you have lumped on last year’s FedEx Cup winner to regain the winning thread.

2. Luke Donald: 18/1

IS THE FORCE WITH LUKE?:  Donald is Mr Consistency at Sawgrass (pic: Inpho)

Golf’s Mr Consistency hasn’t been rewarded with a win this season but he is creeping closer. Tied 25th at Augusta but was T4 at Tampa Bay and T3 at the Heritage in April. Donald has made the cut at Sawgrass in seven of his eight visits - so it’s no wonder punters are piling into the World No. 5 to finish in the Top 6.

3. Tiger Woods: 8/1

ON THE PROWL: Tiger’s got his ‘A’ game back in 2013

A sole win here for Tiger in 2001 and he’s managed just one Top 10 since then and only finished 40th last year. But in the last five months (maybe thanks to his new woman), he’s back at the top of the world ranking and is a three-time winner this year. His joint fourth at the Masters included a two-shot penalty so he must be respected.

4. Steve Stricker: 50/1

GO STEVE: Stricker is one of the Tour’s hottest putters (pic: Inpho)

One of the hottest players on Tour with the flat stick and the man Tiger looked to help him with his putting at the Cadillac Championship. Woods repaid the favour by beating him into second place. The two-time runner-up this season may be in semi retirement but his 12 wins on Tour shows he knows how to get the job done. A lively outsider with the game to suit Sawgrass.

5. Kyle Stanley: 100/1

KNIFE EDGE: Kyle is carrying some solid form into the Players (pic: Inpho)

Third in the Zurich Classic and tied sixth at Wells Fargo his game is in good shape. Punters fancy him to to run into a place at a ton to one. Given that four of the last 11 Champions started this tournament as 100/1 ‘no hopers’ – he mightn’t be the only outsider in the field with a chance of winning.

6. Bo Van Pelt: 50/1

VAN THE MAN:  Van Pelt got game (pic: Inpho)

The World No 26 recently secured his first top 10 finish for the year at the Wells Fargo Championship. After 12 top-10 finishes last season he has been 7th and 4th here, two of the last three years. Nibbled at 50/1 in the market – now that he’s back among the Tour’s big hitters – he’ll want to stay there.

• Betting: Players Championship outright 
• Lawrence Donegan exclusive: The Sawgrass plodders who can leave Tiger legless 

3pm Update. According to the BBC, Tiger Woods has a two-shot penalty and will not be disqualified. This is based on a recent rule update from the USPGA. One rule for Tiger…

We’ve seen some unbelievable shots already at Augusta National in the U.S. Masters… mainly of Dustin Johnson’s girlfriend, Paulina Gretzky.

But trust Tiger Woods to stir more controversy for golf’s stuffy rule-makers. He faces disqualification today from the 77th Masters after a potentially illegal dropshot on the 15th hole during his second round on Friday.

• If Tiger gets the boot, Paddy Power will refund all outright bets on the world No1 in one of our famous Justice Payouts.

I went down to the drop area, that wasn’t going to be a good spot, because obviously it’s into the grain and it was a little bit wet. So it was muddy and not a good spot to drop. So I went back to where I played it from, but I went two yards farther back and I tried to take two yards off the shot of what I felt I hit.

VIDEO: Tiger Woods ends up in the water

VIDEO: Tiger Woods’s illegal dropshot at the U.S. Masters

Now, the Paddy Power Blog doesn’t even pretend to understand all the rules of golf. But we understand a lack of justice for our punters when we see it.

We’ll keep you posted here and on @paddypower but it doesn’t look good for Tiger as the Augusta bullies have already come down hard on 14-year-old (!) Chinese sensation Guan Tianlang with a one-stroke penalty for slow play.

Tiger Woods has history with Paddy Power, of course. In 2009 his defeat at the US PGA Championship cost PP £1.3m after we paid out early on him winning that tournament. During the Ryder Cup in 2012, his ‘gentlemanly’ conduct when conceding the final putt that handed Europe victory stung us for £800,000. By beating Francesco Molinari in the final pairing of the weekend he could have at least ensured a 14-14 draw for America.

Related links

• CLICK HERE for U.S. Masters betting
• CLICK HERE for U.S Masters tips

• T&Cs apply (see below)

USPGA Rule 26-1. Relief for Ball in Water Hazard

It is a question of fact whether a ball that has not been found after having been struck toward a water hazard is in the hazard. In the absence of knowledge or virtual certainty that a ball struck toward a water hazard, but not found, is in the hazard, the player must proceed under Rule 27-1.

If a ball is found in a water hazard or if it is known or virtually certain that a ball that has not been found is in the water hazard (whether the ball lies in water or not), the player may under penalty of one stroke:

a. Proceed under the stroke and distance provision of Rule 27-1 by playing a ball as nearly as possible at the spot from which the original ball was last played (see Rule 20-5); or

b. Drop a ball behind the water hazard, keeping the point at which the original ball last crossed the margin of the water hazard directly between the hole and the spot on which the ball is dropped, with no limit to how far behind the water hazard the ball may be dropped; or

c. As additional options available only if the ball last crossed the margin of a lateral water hazard, drop a ball outside the water hazard within two club-lengths of and not nearer the hole than (i) the point where the original ball last crossed the margin of the water hazard or (ii) a point on the opposite margin of the water hazard equidistant from the hole.

When proceeding under this Rule, the player may lift and clean his ball or substitute a ball.

T&C’s IF Tiger is disqualified from the 2013 U.S. Masters

Refund applies to win and each-way single bets only on the Tiger Woods selection in following markets…

• Winner
• Place Only – 4 places
• Place Only – 5 places
• Top 10
• Top 20
• Top US Player
• Top Former Winner
• Hole In One By Tiger Woods
• Leader after Round 3
• Lowest Round Of Tournament
• Tiger woods Finishing Position – pay 41^st or worse incl missed cut. Void other two selections.
• US Masters Insurebet
• Which Major will Tiger win next – 2013 US Masters
• 72 hole handicap betting
• Tournament match bets (settle opponent as winner void Tiger):
• McIlroy vs Tiger

By Aidan Elder | Chief sports writer

Picking the winner of a Major can be tough. It’s very tough based on the evidence of the history section of my betting account. Finding a player who is going to perform consistently well over the four days of potentially changeable conditions isn’t easy.

The ‘Leader after Round One‘ is always one way of limiting the uncertainty. It’s got lots of advantages. You get prices similar to the ‘Outright Betting’, but without the hassle of getting your hopes up or pulling your hair out for an extra three days. It front loads the disappointment of realising you’ve no actual talent for picking golf winners and gives you the chance to roll the dice a second time ahead of the weekend. Or is that just me?

Based on some office chit-chat, I got to thinking, ‘is there a trend we can exploit?’ Is leading after the first round related to a lack of golfing stamina based on age, a rather rotund figure or a high ‘flash in the pan’ factor? Not really, but here’s a list that you might be able to pick some trends out of.

Leaders (including co-leaders) after Round One for the last 15 years

Justin Rose – 3 (2008, 2007, 2004)
Fred Couples – 2 (2010, 1998)
Chris DiMarco – 2 (2005, 2001)
David Love III – 2 (2002, 1999)
Lee Westwood – 1 (2012)
Rory McIlroy – 1 (2011)
Alvaro Quiros – 1 (2011)
Chad Campbell – 1 (2009)
Trevor Immelman – 1 (2008 – Eventual winner)
Brett Wetterick – 1 (2007)
Vijay Singh – 1 (2006)
Darren Clarke – 1 (2003)
Dennis Paulson – 1 (2000)
Brandel Chamblee – 1 (1999)
Scott McCarron – 1 (1999)
Nick Price – 1 (1999)
John Huston – 1 (1997)

Justin Rose (16/1) is the stand out candidate. For many years he was the quintessential choker of golf, blazing a trail over the first few days of a tournament only to collapse on the final day like a badly self-assembled IKEA chair. He’s won more than enough novelty over-sized trophies since to dis-spell that harsh preconception, but he’s yet to do it at the Masters. Still though, he’s finished Day One on top of the leaderboard three times in the last 15 years and as long as you back him in the Leader After Round One betting, you can afford to care less what he does after that.

He’s been coming to Augusta since golf clubs were still made of hickory wood, but Fred Couples (80/1) still manages to perform well at the Masters. He’s been Leader After Round One twice in the last 15 years. At 53, he’s slightly younger than four Guan Tian-langs, but he can still get himself up the leaderboard, particularly early on in proceedings.

Of the other previous first round leaders playing this time around, Rory McIlroy (12/1), Lee Westwood (28/1) and Trevor Immelman (125/1) (who went wire to wire to win in 2008) have an obvious chance. Deer antler or no deer antler Vijay Singh (100/1) is an interesting option. The 2000 Masters winner hit the front early on in 2006 and he’s still good enough to get it together for another solid round to propel him up the leaderboard.

By Aidan Elder | Chief sports writer

There’s something incredibly unique about Augusta National. No, not the lingering whiff of sexism, racial segregation and elitism – that’s still sadly too common around the golf clubs of the world – it’s the fact that it’s the only course that permanently hosts a Major.

While the Open, the US Open and the US PGA Championship are all played on courses that are basically the same year after year, they’re not actually the same, so building up a store of knowledge about a particular course takes much longer. But Augusta in April is a fixture in the calendar.

Providing you’ve not picked up an injury, dropped down the world rankings or suddenly become David Duval, it’s a fixed entry in the itinerary. The same every year. The same challenges, the same spray painted grass, the same pointless cries of ‘get in the hole’.

As such, showing you can master the course should make you a Masters contender. Even if he’s not in the best of form, a golfer who has done well at Augusta is worth taking note of. Likewise, other players may be able to hover up the unnecessarily over-sized trophies on the PGA or European tours all year long, but when it comes to those Georgia greens, they just can’t get it right. The Paddy Power Blog has had a look at some of this year’s ‘horses for courses’ and split them up into three categories.

#1 Proven horses for courses

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These are the guys that have done well at Augusta in the past. Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson have enough green jackets to open up a men’s clothing boutique (admittedly with a rather limited range). They’re proven Augusta performers. They rarely miss the cut, regularly find themselves at the business end of things on Sunday evening and generally are solid options. They’re also among the favourites so it’s not exactly a shock.

To get a bit more helpful, we’ve cast the net wider and found some other options. Justin Rose is chief among them having never missed a cut in seven visits to Augusta and not being too far off the pace. KJ Choi always seems to get a mention as a decent outside bet for any major, but his Augusta record suggests maybe his best chance is the Masters. With two Top Six Finishes and a Top 10 to his name, he could offer value.

We’re not suggesting Fred Couples can win it, but his Augusta record is impressive. He’s missed just two cuts in 28 Masters tournaments (both due to an injury related slump in the late naughties), he’s come back strongly with a sixth, tied 15th and tied 12th. His knowledge of Augusta makes him an interesting bet at a big price.

Nick Watney is a more speculative bet. He’s rarely got into genuine contention for victory, but he hasn’t been too far off. There are inklings he’s up to the course’s challenges. He’s made the weekend on all five of visits to Augusta and got a couple of Top 10s to his name.

Angel Cabrera also qualifies as something of a master of the Masters. He’s finished inside the Top 25 in eight of his 13 Masters winning in 2009. If he’s feeling happy and well fed, there’s enough encouragement from his recent form to warrant a cheeky punt.

#2 Not the right horses for this course

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On the flipside, there are some players who just don’t take to Augusta. Whatever it is about the course they just can’t get it right.

Steve Stricker sums it up. He’s Mr Boringly Consistent on the tour normally, but at the Masters, he’s more Mr Consistent Disappointment. He’s been no better than in the Top 50 or missed the cut a total of eight times in 12 Masters, a terrible record for a player who has been a permanent resident near the top of the world rankings for a number of years. His tied 10th in 2001 and tied sixth in 2009 hint that there might be some Augusta ability there, but generally he’s been more disappointing than everything U2 have done since about 1993.

Martin Kaymer is more in and out than a professional hokey-cokey-er, but at the Masters, he’s normally just out. Last year he finished tied for 44th and that was considered success in contrast to his four missed cuts in the previous years.

Another major winner with a surprisingly poor Augusta record is Northern Amer-irishman, Graeme McDowell. He’s had the weekend free on three of his five visits to Augusta and hasn’t shown to much of a liking for the course.

A whole host of one major men make up the other members of this category, some with more hope of adding to their tallies than others. If you think any of Ben Curtis, Paul Lawrie, Louis Oosthuizen or Lucas Glover can add another major prize to their CV, you might be proven right, but probably not at the Masters. Collectively, they’ve rarely figured in the Augusta shake-up. People with memories of Louis Oosthuizen’s second place finish last year may query his entry on the list, but his previous three missed cuts at the Masters are an indication that was more of a flash in the pan rather than a changing of the pan. Another good performance this year would see him off the list of Augusta flops, but for the moment, the former Open champion has questions to answer.

#3 The inbetweeners for courses

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This is the most contentious of categories. It’s players who’ve shown flickers of Augusta form, but also mixed it up with some less successful visits. Rory McIlroy heads the list. The way he stormed through the first three rounds of the 2011 edition suggested he had the course in his pocket, but ultimately, he he’s yet to break in to the Top 10 in four attempts at Augusta. That record is likely to improve with experience, but for the moment, his course form has to be considered doubtful.

Everyone else could be broadly described as ‘you wouldn’t be surprised if they went close, but equally there’s a decent chance they’ll screw it up’. That pretty much describes Luke Donald, Lee Westwood and Sergio Garcia’s major hunts to date. They’ve done well at Augusta in the past, but they’ve also got some blotches on their copybook. Yes they’re about as mentally tough as toddler with low self-esteem, but they’re supremely talented and you would expect to get a good run for your money from them. If you’re looking for some sort of answer as to the wisdom of that view, they history books will just shrug and stare blankly at you.

Saying a former winner doesn’t play Augusta particularly well feels about as ill-advised as praising Maggie Thatcher in a town anywhere north of about Luton, but you could certainly say that about 2008 winner, Trevor Immelman. He may have a Green Jacket hanging up in the clubhouse with his name on it, but he’s also got a patchy record. He’s finished in the Top 50 category or missed the cut in half of his ten Masters Tournaments and done moderately well in the others he didn’t win. He’s not quite the course expert some may assume, but he’s got a Green Jacket so he probably doesn’t care.

Ian Poulter is a strange case and that’s not just a jibe at his fashion sense. Having never missed a cut in his eight attempts at the Masters, he’s clearly as comfortable with the course as he is with wearing a ridiculous pair of trousers. But scratch beneath the surface and you’ll see he’s rarely actually dominated the course. He does have two Top 10 finishes to his name, but he’s also got a more muddling record of three Top 25 and three Top 50 finishes to his credit. The fact he’ll be around for the weekend should be as nailed on as the chances of him wearing something gaudy over the four days, but the likelihood for actually challenging for the title is less certain.

Tiger Woods is Paddy Power’s 9-2 favourite to win the Masters, a startling piece of odds-making which suggests (a) the rest might think twice about showing up on Thursday and (b) there is some unbelievable value lurking down the field for those punters prepared to take a closer look for Masters tips. Personally, I’d lay Tiger Woods all day at the prices.

Here are six “outsiders” - to match Paddy Power paying 1/4 the odds the first 6 places  - who should be anything but.

1. Keegan Bradley (22-1)

BRAD TO THE BONE: Keegan’s no mug and has a Major to his name

The 2011 PGA Championship winner is no shrinking violet. He is a long hitter (he was striping it past McIlroy when the two played together in Houston recently), a decent putter and fierce and passionate competitor.

2. Nicolas Colsaerts (90-1)

COULD HE NIC IT?  Belgium’s Colsaerts is no back number

The Belgian bomber hasn’t shown much in the way of form in 2013. But he is the very definition of “streaky” – the kind of player who could wake up on Thursday morning and decide he fancies winning the Masters. He certainly has the talent to contend. But does he have the guts? A top-six finish is not out of the question.

3. Robert Garrigus (200-1)

BOB’S THE JOB: Garrigus can scythe through the fairways with his long drives

A proven winner on the PGA Tour with the power to reduce Augusta National’s par-five to a drive and short iron. Last year, he hit a wedge from 180-yards on the 13th hole. Not many players in the field enjoy that kind of advantage.

4. Lee Westwood (28-1)

WEST’S AWAKE: The move to Florida can pay dividends for Lee

The Englishman has played well at Augusta over the years, defying the orthodoxy that only those with a great short game can win. Westwood’s short game is far from great, although buoyed by his move to Florida – where the warm weather allowed him to practice solidly through winter for the first time in years – appears to have improved his chipping and putting.

5. Sergio Garcia (40-1)

MAJOR  SERG: If the Spaniard sorts his putting out he won’t be far away

The Spaniard has never been a fan of Augusta National which is strange given that the course suits the game. He can shape the ball either way, and he can hit it high and low. He is an excellent wedge player and imaginative around the greens. The problem is his putting. If he has a great week on the greens, or even a good one, then he will contend.

6. Padraig Harrington (55/1)

PADDY’S BANDWAGON: Harrington thinks he has the game to win again (pic: Inpho)

Strange to think that in 2009 Harrington arrived at Augusta as the most talked about man in golf chasing his third successive major championship. Since then Paddy has had about 27 different putting strokes and 11 different swings. Still, he’s gained a bit of distance put on a few muscles and retained his deft short game. He thinks he can win this week and that’s half the battle.

• DESKTOP Masters outright click here
• MOBILE Masters outright click here

It’s been billed as America’s Golf Boys v Europe’s Brat Pack. The bible-bashing Yanks of Bubba Watson, Hunter Mahan, Rickie Fowler and Ben Crane against the brash European elite of Rory McIlroy, Ian Poulter, Graeme McDowell and Sergio Garcia. Lawrence Donegan tees up the action and narrows down the field to see who’ll be top dog come Sunday night.

Lawrence Donegan | U.S. Masters 2013

The beauty of trying to pick a Masters winner is there are fewer contenders than normal golf tournaments. A  regular PGA Tour event has a field of 156 players, as does its equivalent on the European Tour.

The 2013 Masters has a field of 93. Of those we can dismiss the chances of least 50 players – including former champions and the  invited amateurs and  the over-awed journeymen. That leaves us with approximately 40 ‘contenders’.

Of those 40 – 10 fit neatly into the “will be a good effort if they make the cut”.  That means you, DA Points, Martin Laird (yes, I know he won last Sunday) and Thomas Bjorn.

Now we are down to the real deal, the 30 players whose wishful thinking about that adulatory Sunday afternoon walk up the carpet of the 18th fairway has some basis in reality.

Unfortunately, this is where the soothsayer business gets rather tricky, contending as it does with human condition,  the vagaries of emotion and form.

However, there are some clues.

• A player who is a short hitter and a mediocre putter has no chance. Nor does an average wedge player. 
• Augusta National has no time for those who lack accuracy from 100 yards and in. That takes care of  another 10.

Which leaves us with the potential winners. Qualification for this elite group  is earned by those who drive the ball fairly straight and  have the ability to move the ball left-to-right (and right-to-left). They must all cut out three-putts and make mincemeat of the par-fives.

They must be mentally strong, unafraid to hit 220-yard four-irons over water to a distant pin and brave enough to rap of five-foot putt for par into the back of the cup.

No-one fits all of the above categories, but Tiger Woods (4/1f), Rory McIlroy (8/1) and Phil Mickelson (11/1) come closer than most.  They will be there – or thereabouts.

Brandt Snedeker (35/1) fits this bill. The American has faded slightly after a strong start to the PGA Tour season but that dip in form has been injury-related. If he is fit and healthy and putts like he can (i.e. like a God) then look for him on the leaderboard.

The same can be said for Ian Poulter (45/1) - another “medium length” hitter who putts with the angels.

HE GOT GAME: Poulter’s self belief – and putting ability – can deliver a Green Jacket

As for the rest, Dustin Johnson (30/1) has the power and the ball-flight (a right-to-left draw that suits the course) to suggest he will have a chance. So too does fellow Golf Boy Bubba Watson if he can get his head out of the clouds after last year’s victory, and Adam Scott.

Yet if the weather stays fair – and the forecast is good at least at the weekend – then the balance might tilt away from the bombers towards those who  hit the ball just long enough off the tee but who are also blessed with a wonderful touch on and around the greens.

It’s been 14 years since Europe had a winner at the Masters with Jose Maria Olazabal in 1999.

What chance the Europe’s 2012 Ryder Cup is followed into the Augusta National winners’ enclosure by the Englishman Poulter who made his Medinah dreams comes true?

• DESKTOP U.S. Masters outright betting click here 
• MOBILE U.S Masters outright betting click here

2. And this one from Bubba Watson to win the Masters last year

3. There are loads of mind-blowing stats like this

• There have been 23 holes in one at the US Masters, with 65 per cent of them coming on the 16th hole
• Phil Mickelson has played in the US Masters on 17 occasions and 71 per cent of the time he has finished in the top 10
• ‘Lefty’ also holds the record for the most birdies at a US Masters. Making 25 in the 2001 tournament
• 30 per cent of the time the US Masters is decided in a play-off
• In 2009 Dustin Johnson became just one of three players to hit four eagles in one tournament. The other two are Tiger Woods and Bruce Crampton
• Justin Rose has led the US Masters four times and never won #Bottler
• 14 per cent of Champions are over par after the first 18 holes

GET IN: Keegan Bradley shows his appreciation for awesome stats about the US Masters

4. Tiger Woods is back at his incredible best

• World number one
• Four-time Masters winner
• Youngest ever Masters champion at 21-years-old in 1997
• Lowest ever US Masters winning score – 18 under par
• Widest ever winning margin in 1997 – 12 shots ahead of Tom Kite
• In 18 US Masters tournaments, Tiger has finished in the top five 10 times. That is a 55 per cent strike rate

5. How could we mention Tiger and not include this piece of genius?

6. Some people just can’t pull off the green jacket (We’re looking at you Nick Faldo)

7. But some people were born to wear it

8. Golfers love playing in the US Masters

‘The course is perfection and it asks perfection.’ Three-time US Masters winner Sir Nick Faldo

‘I always said if they have a golf course like this in heaven, I want to be the head pro.’ Three-time US Masters winner Gary Player

‘If the Masters offered no money at all, I would be here trying just as hard.’ Two-time US Masters winner Ben Hogan

‘If you don’t get goose bumps when you walk into this place, you don’t have a pulse’. Baseball Hall of Famer Don Sutton

9. It has all the ingredients for a major meltdown

1996 – Greg Norman blows a six stroke lead on the final day. After going into the final round 13-under-par Norman shot a 78 to hand Nick Faldo victory.

1979 – Second round and third round leader Ed Snead held a five shot lead going into the final day. He bogeyed the last three holes on his final round to card a 76 and then lost in a play-off against the fantastically named Fuzzy Zoeller.

2011 – Rory McIlroy lead after each of the first three rounds and after the first nine on the fourth round, but crumbled spectacularly. Despite holding a five shot lead going in to day four McIlroy hit eight over par on the final day to card a fourth round total of 80. He made a triple-bogey on the 10th and a four-putt double-bogey on the 12th, eventually finishing in 15th place – 10 shots off the lead.

1956 – Ken Venturi led for the entire tournament but in difficult conditions the American scored six-over-par on the back nine holes of the final round. A day four score of 80 handed the green jacket to Jack Burke Jr who won the tournament by one shot.

10. Paddy Power is refunding losing bets if your golfer eagles the 13th hole on Sunday!

And as a bonus here is an awkward Bubba Watson handshake with Augusta Chairman Billy Payne…

It’s steeped in history so don’t go looking for giggles here. How the players fare at Amen Corner could decide the Masters. All the final-day contenders will want to get through 11 and 12 with their score intact before letting loose on the par 5 13th. But you miss the fairway and you’re chance of Masters’ glory could be gone.

1. The 11, 12 & 13th holes at Augusta were christened Amen Corner by Sports Illustrated writer Herbert Warren Wind in a piece he wrote on April 21, 1958 – the same year Elvis Presley joined the U.S. Army and seven Manchester United players died in the Munich Air Crash.

2. Amen Corner came into popular usage from the 1959 Masters on  after Wind used it to describe where he thought the tournament was won and lost as playing partners Arnold Palmer – the eventual champion took a two-shot lead over Ken Venturi (who eventually finished fourth). Venturi argued for decades that the ‘local rule’ – that gave Palmer a three instead of a five on the 12th – before he recorded an eagle three on the 13th should not have applied – but to no avail.

3. Wind wanted to create a catchphrase for golf’s first Major similar to Basketball’s “hot-corner” and NFL’s “coffin corner”.

4. The phrase Amen Corner is taken from a 1935 jazz classic Shoutin’ in that Amen Corner.

5. Amen Corner was reportedly an area of New York City where preachers gathered to give the good word to their flock.

6. Wind picked holes 11, 12 & 13 because: “the pressure was on when you came to those three holes. It created its own history there because of where it was at.”

7. Despite the legendary status in sport golf’s infamous three-hole stretch had been in existence for 25 years – with little comment – before Herbert Warren Wind coined the immortal phrase.

8.  The Nelson Bridge & Hogan Bridge are two famous commemorative landmarks at Amen Corner.  Nelson’s Bridge reflects Byron Nelson’s birdie-eagle charge at 12 13 to win the 1937 Masters while the Hogan Bridge honors Ben Hogan’s score of 274 in 1953, then the lowest 72-hole score in the Masters.

9.  Birdies are as rare as a Reading home win on the 11th which has ranked the toughest hole on the course since 2002.

10. Reigning champion Bubba Watson parred, bogeyed and birdied Amen Corner in his final round last year ahead of his second-hole sudden-death win over South Africa’s Louis Oosthuizen.

11.  White Dogwood, Par 4, 505 yards: Only 10 birdies were recorded in all four rounds at this hole last year. Not hard to see why the 11th has decided all but three of the Master’s 16 sudden-death play-offs since 1934.

12. Golden Bell, Par 3, 155 yards: While the 12th is the shortest hole on the course – it’s also the most notorious par three in golf. Accuracy is key and – depending on the wind – a six to a nine iron can be required. If you’re not on the dance-floor when you cross Rae’s Creek – you’re in big trouble.

13. Azalea, Par 5, 510 yards: If two contrasting toughest holes haven’t wrecked your head – the 13th offers a little respite. A ‘risk-and-reward’ par 5 allows the adventurous to reach the green in two allowing for eagle – and certainly birdie opportunities. But your head must be in the right place as you prepare to exit Amen Corner.

• Betting: The Masters 2013

Augusta, Georgia, birthplace of the Reverend James Brown – the Godfather of Soul – and home of the holiest tournament in American golf.  If you’re a player or a spectator heading to the deep South this week  for the first major of the golfing season- or even just a couch jockey sitting in front of the TV, there are some rules you better not break.

They’re called the 10 Commandments of the US Masters and they go like this:

1. Thou shall worship false gods. The gentlemen members of Augusta National think they are Gods, wiser and richer and more knowledgeable about golf and the world in general than mere mortals like you and I. Humour them in their pomposity.  It’s their big week and, in fairness, they do put on the best golf tournament known to man.

2. Thou shall not expect a rank outsider to win the Masters. The days of a Larry Mize and George Archer type of player (ie a PGA Tour journeyman) appearing out of nowhere to beat the field are gone. There are too many elite players who are just too good. To be crowned Masters champion means too much to the best golfers for them to allow some nobody sneak in and steal the prize.

3. Likewise, thou shall not expect this week’s tournament to be a 72-hole exhibition showcasing the brilliance of Tiger Woods.  The great man might be the shortest price favourite since God was a stick-on to part the Red Sea but – repeat after me – there are too many great players these days to allow even the greatest of all to run away with the prize.

4. If you’re a spectator at Augusta National thou shall not run or push or be caught with a mobile phone in your possession (automatic removal from the premises -  no ifs, no buts, no “My aunt’s dying from and I need to keep in touch with home’ excuses).

5. If you’re a player,thou shalt not turn up on Thursday morning playing like a drain and hope that everything will be fine once you step onto the first tee. Augusta National isn’t the place to find your game. You have it when you get here or it’s the Friday night flight-desk for you.

ON THE PROWL:  Can Tiger’s ‘A’ game hold up through four rounds at Augusta

6. If you’re watching at home thou shalt not go more than an hour without some witless commentator telling you the course is ‘hillier than it looks’. We know that. You told us 325 times last year. And 325 times the year before that.

7. If you’re a journalist covering the tournament thou shall not expect Tiger Woods to say anything interesting in his pre-tournament press conference.

8. Thou should be thankful you won’t have to listen to the American coverage of the Masters. Colin Montgomerie on Sky Sports might be borderline insufferable but even he doesn’t hold a candle to like Nick “me me me” Faldo on CBS. Don’t get me started on Jim Nantz, the host of the CBS ‘telecast’ and a man with maple syrup for blood and toasted waffles for brains.

9. Thou shall not expect Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy to play together in the final pairing on the final day, slugging it out for the Green Jacket. God is generous, especially to those who have been good.  But trust me – none of us have been that good.

10. And finally, thou shall stand by for four days of brilliant sport with more excitement than a hairspray seller taking a phone call from Donald Trump, more tension than the waistband on Monty’s shorts and more drama than Paolo di Canio making a guest appearance in Boardwalk Empire. It doesn’t get any better than the Masters. Sit back and enjoy.

• Betting: US Masters 

Lawrence Donegan is the Guardian’s former golf correspondent. He is also author of the acclaimed book, Four Iron in the Soul, based on his experiences caddying for tour pro Ross Drummond. In the 1980s he was a bassist for the Bluebells and Lloyd Cole And The Commotions, but we forgive him for Young At Heart because he’s such a sound lad. Follow him on Twitter here.

GET IN THE HOLE: Tiger’s latest romance might explain why he rediscovered his form

By Josh Powell | U.S. Masters 2013

The US Masters is the first golf Major of the year and Paddy Power is pulling out all of the stops by paying 1/4 the odds on the first six. The favourite Tiger Woods has rediscovered his best form after becoming ‘Facebook official’ with skier Lindsey Vonn while world number two Rory McIlroy, is in more of a love-hate relationship with his new Nike sticks.

Both men have attracted plenty of money and while Paddy’s out perfecting his work around the greens, the Paddy Power Blog has delved into the books to see where punters are putting their dough.

1. Tiger Woods 4/1

Unsurprisingly there has been a truckload of money for Tiger. He is a four-time Masters winner and in his 17 US Masters tournaments, he has finished in the top five 59 per cent of the time. In his 66 rounds at the Augusta National Course Tiger has made par or better 77 per cent of the time. Woods has three tour wins to his name since the turn of the year and if he regains the Masters for the first time in eight years he’ll have the traders in Paddy Power running for cover.

2. Rory McIlroy 8/1 10/1

Despite Rory McIlroy’s issues with the new sticks, this hasn’t stopped punters ploughing into the world number two. He may be coming into form at the right time after finishing second in the Texas Open and shot a 66 in the final round. Punters have no problem backing Rory to win the Masters for the first time but Paddy Power will be praying for a ‘McIlroy meltdown’ circa 2011 to avoid a costly payout.

3. Justin Rose 20/1 18/1

Justin Rose has never won a major – missing 13 cuts out of 35 – but that hasn’t put punters off at a price of 20/1 for the US Masters. Paddy Power might pay for offering six places as Rose is having a pretty decent season and has no problem with the tough Augusta course. Since the turn of the year Rose has not finished any lower than 17th in six tournaments and in his seven Masters appearances he has made the top 25 five times.

4. Phil Mickelson 11/1

Hundreds of years ago left-handers were accused of witchcraft  - now they’re busy winning the US Masters. Five of the last 10 tournaments have been won by leftys and Mickelson can improve that record. Punters have been emptying their piggy-banks for Big Phil who has finished in the top six in 11 of his 17 appearances at the US Masters. That 65 per cent success rate will leave Paddy watching the two-time Masters winner from behind the couch.

5. Lee Westwood 28/1

Westy might not have won a Major yet but punters haven’t been shy in backing the former world number one. In four of his last five Masters tournaments he has finished 11th or better and has finished in the top 25 in 62 per cent of tournaments since the start of 2013. This might not be Westwood’s best chance of a debut major but he makes excellent place claims and another top six finish will be a swift kick in the unmentionables for Paddy.

6. Louis Oosthuizen 28/1 30/1

Oosthuizen became just the fourth player to record an albatross in the Masters with his incredible 253-yard shot on the second hole in 2012. That set him up for an agonising play-off defeat against Bubba Watson to record his best-ever Masters finish. That recent form has punters throwing more than a few quid on the South African who has already notched up a tour victory back in January. Similar accuracy this year will put Oosthuizen in the frame and put Paddy Power on a one-way street to the poor house.

• DESKTOP Betting: US Masters click here
  
• MOBILE Betting: US Masters click here

All eyes were on Tiger Woods but Sergio Garcia is still the coolest swinger in town.

On Sunday at the Arnold Palmer Invitational he climbed 15 feet into an oak tree and played a one-handed shot back out to the fairway.

Garcia still double-bogeyed on the hole and withdrew during the rain delay. Still, hat-tip to the Spaniard for effort.

Watch this video of the craziest golf shot of the year.

ON THE PROWL: Tiger’s got his ‘A’ game back (pic :Getty)

Golf | Arnold Palmer Invitational

If familiarity breeds contempt then Tiger Woods must really hate the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he’s won an unprecedented seven titles.

The reigning champion returns to the scene of his first Tour win since ex-wife Elin Nordegren took a nine-iron to his head, their marriage and his career in 2009 after a well-publicised sex scandal.

With Woods now playing a-around with Nordegren prototype Lindsay Vonn Paddy Power is paying 1/4 the odds the first 6 places and Money-Back if your player birdies the 18th hole on Sunday.

There’s about three weeks to the first Major of the season - the US Masters at Augusta and Tiger is starting to show the kind of form that has made him a 14-time Major Champion.

Victory in the $6.2m event would see Tiger leapfrog the absent Rory McIlroy to top spot in the Official World Golf Rankings in a tournament that has thrown up four overseas winners in seven years. But there’s plenty of star quality in the field gunning for Tiger’s crown.

1. Brandt Snedeker: 20/1

BRANDT SNEDEKER: Hotter than Mila Kunis (pic: Inpho)

Victory at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, a second, joint-second and third in four appearances meant Snedeker’s early-season form was hotter than Mila Kunis.

The leading money winner on the Tour and reigning Fed-Ex Cup champion could look mighty big at 20/1 with Paddy Power if fully recovered from the bruised ribs that forced him to take the  last month off.

2. Sergio Garcia: 20/1

MAN IN BLACK :  Garcia’s got the power and the accuracy  (pic: Inpho)

The Spaniard was tied third behind Woods in the Cadillac Championship two weeks ago and has five top 10 finishes in 11 years at Bay Hill despite finishing 33rd last season.

Tee to green is rarely a problem for Garcia and he has really tightened up with the flat stick this year. Three top 10 finishes on the Tour gives him a solid each-way chance at 20/1.

3. Graeme McDowell: 20/1

GMAC ATTACK: Can McDowell go one better this year (pic: Inpho)

Three Top 10 finishes in-a-row this season has justified the 2010 US Open winner’s decision to take some down time at the end of last year. One of the most accurate players off the tee Gmac shot a 63 on day two two last year. Even a final round 74 didn’t stop him finishing runner-up.  His game is in a much better place now and finished tied-third (with Garcia and Mickelson) behind Woods at Doral.

4. Bubba Watson: 28/1

BUBBA’S BACK: Watson warming up for Masters’ defence (pic: Inpho)

While Americans have won the first 12 tournaments on the US Tour this season the last time non-US players went 13 times without winning a title was 1989.

Bubba’s masterstroke approach to the green from an impossible angle on the second sudden death play-off hole gave him the Green Jacket over Louis Oosthuizen  and propelled him into the big time. But the ground work was done with a convincing fourth-place finish here. Will want to put up a solid defence of his Masters’ title in three weeks by finishing in the frame here.

5. Ian Poulter: 35/1

IAN-VINCIBLE: Poulter would relish a head-to-head battle with Tiger up the 18th

Third here last year a stroke ahead of Watson last year and tees off with Gmac and Keegan Bradley on Thursday. The main man at the Ryder Cup in Medinah would relish playing the final day’s parings with Woods. But would Tiger fancy a face-off with the Englishman who’s a 35/1 poke with Paddy Power.

6. Phil Mickelson: 16/1

TAKING THE MICK’ : Phil can quieten Tiger’s roar (pic: Getty)

A flawless display at the Phoenix Open gave him his first win of 2013 before the wheels came off when finishing 60th at the At&T Pro-Am and 21st at the Northern Trust Open. Was joint-third with the major players at the Cadillac Championship and won’t want to let Tiger hog the limelight for too long.  Has finished outside the top 20 on his last four starts at Bay Hill but did win here in 2007 before the extensive course redesign in 2010.

• Betting: Arnold Palmer Invitational
  
• Paddy Power place market

Number one in the world of golf and numero uno in the art of the disarming apology, Rory McIlroy once again swiped triumph from the mucky grip of inglorious ridicule on the eve of the WGC-Cadillac Championship in Miami.

Last Friday he was the spoiled brat who wouldn’t listen to the wise counsel of his playing partner Ernie Els who suggested that, all things considered, it might not be the very best idea to stomp off in a huff midway through the second round of the Honda Classic after hitting his ball in the water for the third time in nine holes.

Today he was the humble son of Northern Ireland who had looked in the mirror and seen the error of his ways. His new friends at Nike didn’t need to run him up a sackcloth-and-ashes polo shirt for his press conference appearance (though it would have looked better than the ghastly yellow item he did show up wearing) because, guess what, nothing is more powerful than words.

NICE FLAGS: Rory McIlroy says sorry at Doral but he’s got bigger issues with his form

“I quit. I shouldn’t have done it. It was a mistake It was a bad example to the kids who were watching and want to emulate what I do. I won’t do it again,’’ McIlroy said.

Bullseye. There, in an edited highlights nutshell, is the essence of what it takes to get a tarnished image back on track. McIlroy is an intuitive master at this kind of thing. Like the ability to swing a golf club it is his natural gift, which makes it all the more hilarious that Tiger Woods ( a 36-handicapper when it comes to PR) saw fit to offer some advice to the man who has supplanted him as golf’s biggest star.

“Think a little bit more before you say something or do something,’’ was the suggestion of old Grandmaster Grump, whose career-long obfuscation in front of the cameras cost him dearly when he was looking for friends in the crazy winter of 2009.

Rory says sorry and ‘no thanks, Tiger’

McIlroy’s apology will get all the friendly headlines but he should also be commended for telling Mr Woods where to shove it, though in so many words. “I feel like I have always been open and honest. I don’t want it to be a strained relationship between me and the Press.”

Translated – thanks, but no thanks Tiger, although the new world No1 does appear to have adapted one particularly irritating verbal tic from the old No1, at one point uttering Woods’ infamous mantra: “It is what it is.”

At least McIlroy had the decency to look embarrassed after the words escaped his mouth. Another plus point in the image rehabilitation stakes.

Yet beyond all the froth and nonsense surrounding the Northern Irishman over the last week the only thing that truly matters is his golf. If he continues to hit the ball sideways then the state of his relationship with the press won’t matter one iota.

Which brings us to the crux of the matter: why is he playing so badly? “It’s not the equipment, it’s the swing,’’ he insisted.

IN THE SWING OF THINGS: Rory McIlroy at the Ryder Cup, before his change of gear to Nike

Really? Let’s employ a bit of deductive reasoning. Last year Rory McIlroy won five times, including a major championship, and finished his season with five straight birdies to triumph in Dubai. He then takes a few weeks off, comes back in Abu Dhabi for his first appearance of 2013 and can’t find the fairway with a map and compass. What happened? What had changed?

Could it be the swing that served him so brilliantly over an extended period of 2012 deteriorated so startlingly by the start of 2013? Possibly, although only in the sense that anything is possible. But why wander off to boundaries of credulity when there is a more plausible explanation?

So, what is McIlroy’s problem?

What changed in the golfing world of McIlroy between November 2012 and January 2013? He changed his equipment, from Titleist (which he has used since boyhood) to Nike (which backed up the truck).

Some players have made the switch with very little impact on their play but the history of the game is littered with pros who got themselves into the bother.

If you don’t believe that, believe this: A history of golf mistakes just like Rory’s… 

Admittedly, it is a small sample size (only four and a half competitive rounds) but the weight of evidence accumulated in 2013 suggests McIlroy’s name can be added to this list.

TWEET-HEARTS: Rory McIlroy with girlfriend Caroline Wozniacki, just because it’s a pretty picture

Thankfully, most players overcome the difficulties that come with changing gear and McIlroy will too, although probably not this week. It is possible to transform a tarnished image in space of a press conference but it takes a lot longer to repair an out-of-sorts golf game.

He will back and he will hope to be back in time for the Masters. But if you are looking for a winner at Doral look elsewhere, to the sainted ranks of proven winners who are happy with their equipment and are content with their form.

Tiger Woods plays well in Miami and has already won this season. Same goes for Phil Mickelson. Both could win this week but if they do then they will have to beat Geoff Ogilvy (45/1), a former major champion who, on the evidence of a second-place finish at the Honda last week, is playing up to his pedigree.

• Betting: WGC-Cadillac Championship

Lawrence Donegan is the Guardian’s former golf correspondent. He is also author of the acclaimed book, Four Iron for the Soul, based on his experiences caddying for tour pro Ross Drummond. In the 1980s he was a bassist for the Bluebells and Lloyd Cole And The Commotions. Follow him on Twitter here.