KERB’ YOUR ENTHUSIASM – Angelique Kerber watches from the stands. Something she might have to get used to over the next fortnight

By Aidan Elder | Chief sports writer

Almost every Grand Slam seems to be littered with an abundance of high profile first round casualties and me saying ‘dammit! Why didn’t I think of opposing him/her – the writing was on the wall’. There will be upsets and no doubt a whole host of odds-on favourites you wouldn’t back with Monopoly money, but on the flip side, there’s a few outsiders at big prices who might be worth a shout. Here’s a look at five French Open First Round bets who have varying degrees of justification for thinking about causing an upset.

Mona Barthel – 13/8 (v Angelique Kerber)

While an all-German clash in London has dominated the sporting headlines in recent days, there’s one in Paris that could be no less profitable. Angelique Kerber is a steady, reliable player you could lazily stereotype as being ‘very German’. She’s become a fixture in the world’s top ten without doing a whole lot of winning, but she could be vulnerable against Mona Barthel. Her younger compatriot has the narrow 2-1 edge in their head to head record and so far this year has amassed a win rate not dissimilar to a player ranked 25 places above her (63% v 66%). Kerber has three first round exits at Roland Garros to her name and although she’s much improved since her early visits, Barthel is the more tempting pick at the odds.

Anabel Medina Garriques – 9/2 (v Li Na)

China is on an unstoppable march to owning the world’s ass at everything and Li Na has been at the forefront of their push for global sporting domination. The 31 year old has blossomed later in her career to become a regular in the later stages of Grand Slam events and she begins the fortnight clear fourth favourite to win the title at 12/1.

But it may not be easy for her in her opener as the 2011 winner has an appalling record against the lowly ranked Spaniard, Anabel Medina Garriques. She has won just one of their five meetings and that was a retirement last year’s Aussie Open. To make matters worse, she’s 0-3 against Medina Garriques on clay and although that record stems from 2007 and earlier before Na rocketed up the world rankings, it’s a fairly comprehensive record. She’s been upset by lower ranked opponents in each of her last two clay court events

PE’ER PRESSURE – With a poor record on clay against Pe’er, could Radwanska be waving a premature goodbye to Paris?

Shahar Pe’er – 6/1 (v Agnieszka Radwanska)

There’s no point trying to sugar coat it – Shahar Pe’er’s recent form has been atrocious. She’s earned a grand total of two ranking points from her last two tournaments, which is pretty much the tennis equivalent of spelling your name right in an exam. Against the current world number four, she looks to have little going for her.

But that’s not strictly true because if you can conveniently overlook the recent form, the history books are a little more generous to the 26 year old Israeli. She’s got a record of three wins and three defeats in her career head to head with Radwanska, but on clay, Pe’er has a decisive 2-0 advantage. The Pole is no stranger to having a few days off in Paris, she’s been dumped out at the first round twice in six visits, most recently in 2011. It would take a sudden and dramatic turnaround in form from a player who has barely been spelling her name right in recent weeks, but at big odds, it’s worth a small nibble.

Jack Sock – 3/1 (v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez)

The US are desperately on the lookout for their next superstar to challenge for Grand Slams and although there’s no guarantee that Jack Sock is the man, he’s making progress in the right direction. It’s his first visit to Roland Garros and I’ve got limited evidence to justify my unfounded confidence in the 20 year old Nebraskan. He won the Mixed Doubles at the US Open with Melaine Oudin in 2011, although I wouldn’t blame you if you treated that with all the respect of winning an egg and spoon race at his primary school.

One source of hope is how Garcia-Lopez has been given some tough examinations by players from a similar rankings ballpark as Sock during the clay court season. He’s mostly come through those examinations, but there is some vulnerability there. It’s also worth bearing in mind that when you get outside the world’s top 50, the rankings get very condensed. Although 40 places sounds like he’s in a different galaxy to Sock, it’s probably only a couple of runs to the quarter-finals of regulation events away from being non-existent. Plus the guy has got through life with a name like Jack Sock – clearly this is a man familiar with overcoming adversity.

Jiri Vesely – 7/2 (v Phillip Kohlschreiber)

‘A 19 year old with a career record of 0-1? How much can we lump on this in no way promising bet?’ you may have sarcastically thought as you read the last speculative first round bet on this list. Vesely isn’t a household names, but he’s had an excellent clay court season. Just not at the top level. He’s shown ability on the dirtball courts by winning two Challenger Tour events during this clay court season and he’s a player on the rise. He won the 2011 junior Aussie Open and although plenty of players have done that without going on to make much of a ripple on the main tour, he’s worth giving a chance.

Kohlschreiber hasn’t done much wrong in his clay court season either and to be honest, he probably won’t need to be at his best to beat the young Czech. However he had to withdraw from the Rome Masters due to vertigo. I don’t know if it’s something that’s likely to strike again in Paris, but I wouldn’t want to take the chance at heavy odds on especially as with a record of not getting past the first round in four of his nine visits to Paris, the German clearly has enough to worry about without health issues.

• Find out the full range of latest odds on the French Open Men’s coupon and the French Open Ladies’ coupon

In honour of the expected knockouts we’re going to enjoy this saturday night, here’s a video of some of the best UFC heavyweight knockouts of all time. Including our top personal top 5. Don’t agree? Then vent your spleen on Twitter by abusing us directly through @paddypowerblog.

This weekend at UFC 160 in Las Vegas Cain Velasquez defends his UFC heavyweight title against Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva. A man he knocked out inside the first round less than two years ago. Silva is coming of a spectacular KO of Alistair Overeem so his confidence will be high, so that should help. It looks like Velasquez’ fight again but this is the heavyweight division. No one ever holds on to the belt for too long.

The main supporting act sees former champ Junior Dos Santos take on fellow knockout artist Mark Hunt. A win for Hunt could land him a title shot. Quite the turn around for a man whose first fight in the UFC was a loss which extended his losing run to six fights. Three knockouts in a four fight win streak since have lifted the Australian to the top of the heavyweight tree. He’s a real danger for the Dos Santos.

At light-heavyweight Glover Teixera and James Te Huna both love a knockout. This promises to be a real tear up and a contender for Fight of the Night honours.

The match up between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Abel Trujillo at lightweight is another interesting pairing. Two well-rounded, talented newcomers who both enjoyed impressive stoppage wins in their last fights.

UFC veteran Jeremy Stephens opens the undercards against former Strikeforce fighter Estevan Payan. Stephens has picked up three Knockout of the Night bonuses over the years. With three straight losses he’s in serious danger of being cut by UFC president Dana White. If Stephens comes out swinging these lightweights will open the night with a bang.

In the pub the other night, I had a brain wave as to what bets I wanted to do over the weekend. I whipped out my iPhone (which isn’t the worse thing I’ve whipped out in a public place under the influence of alcohol in fairness) and spoke to the app, in the hope it would record my gambling genius. This was the result:

Yeah – it’s mental. And judging by the bizarre ’Aryan’ reference in the last one, not only is the app faulty, it’s also slightly racist too. In order to counteract some of the strangeness here (in the same order as the bets) are the sports which the bets apply to.

Bet 1: Football
Bet 2: Motorsport
Bet 3: Horse racing
Bet 4: Rugby Union
Bet 5: Football

Your job is to decipher what the hell I was talking about. If you need a guide, you could do worse than checking out last week’s competition. That last one is tough. I was the one talking to the app and I can’t even make sense of the gibberish it spouted back to me. Best of luck with that one. I reckon all the others are manageable if you devote some brain power to them.

The prize starts out as a Free €/£50 Bet, but every time this competition gets shared on Twitter, Facebook, Google+ or LinkedIn (you can use the buttons below for that) we’ll add an extra euro/pound to the total. That should boost the fund rather substantially and you might win that prize, so you should definitely do it.

The winner will be whoever gets the most correct answers right (it pretty much needs to be the whole answer, not just bits of it to be right). In the event we get more than one person tied on the same number of correct answers, the winner shall be drawn from Aidan’s hat of mystery.

Get your answers in before 10am on Monday, May 27, and I’ll announce the winner soon after.

Send your answer to competitions@paddypower.com with the subject line ‘Stop whipping things out in public under the influence of alcohol’. The inclusion or exclusion of a subject line will make absolutely no difference to your entry.

You can use the comments section for begging for clues or general observations on life, but NO ANSWERS please. If you want to contact me, you can do so using the Twitter machine where he’s @MinistryOfGlove.

Conditions
- Customers must be over the age of 18, have a valid paddypower.com account and not be offended by racist Speech to Text apps
– Maximum size of the free bet will be €/£150
- Paddy Power decision is final and moaning will be gleefully ridiculed in public

VET’ IN: Sebastian Vettel is a little too excited about this 16/1 shot for the Monaco Grand Prix

By Josh Powell | Monaco Grand Prix

It’s Christmas come early for motor racing fans this weekend at the Monaco Grand Prix. If you’re not into motor racing but you enjoy some celebrity spotting or checking out hot girls in bikinis it’s probably Christmas come early for you as well.

Bernie Ecclestone takes his merry band of Formula One superstars to the playground of the rich and famous in one of the sport’s glamour meetings. You could bring the lifestyle of the stars into your living room with a 16/1 punt this weekend, without the hassle of having Ecclestone hogging the remote. It might not pay for a yacht but it could certainly pay for a few drinks at the Sunday pub quiz.

The myth that Monaco isn’t a good track for overtaking pretty much hits the nail on the head. There have been just 250 overtakes at the track in the last 25 years, and 60 per cent of the last 25 races have had just eight overtakes or less. It might not be the most exciting track for manoeuvres, but there’s always the possibility of someone crashing into the sea.

Pole position is crucially important at Monaco therefore. It’s quite important to be at the front at wedding buffets and when you’re on the platform waiting for a train in rush hour, but by far the most valuable pole position is at Monaco.

• 52 per cent of drivers who have been on pole at Monaco in the last 25 years have won.
• Even more impressively eight of the last nine Monaco winners started on pole position.
• Of the 12 winners that did not start on pole, six started second on the grid and five started third. Just once in 25 years has someone started lower than third and won. That was Olivier Panis in 1996 who started fourteenth.

Triple World Champ Sebastian Vettel is aiming for his fourth crown on the spin and sits top of the driver’s championship so far. He has two wins to his name this season and is 11/4 to win in Monaco on Sunday, but the value is on him being on pole, winning the race and posting the fastest lap at 16/1.

The trends show that if you’re on pole, you win the race. Vettel was third on the grid in 2010 and on pole when he won in 2011 before having mechanical problems last year, qualifying ninth. The German has two pole positions to his name already and can make it three at Monaco.

Then it would all come down to who is nailing the fastest lap of the race.

• 89 per cent of winners at Monaco in the last nine years have set either the second or third fastest lap of the race, but not the quickest.
• Just one winner in the last nine years has set the fastest lap and that was Fernando Alonso in 2007 who banged in a 1:15.284.

The stats aren’t as promising here but you’ve read this far you might as well keep going. Being in front in a Grand Prix is like dating a supermodel. Obviously everyone wants to be you and life is pretty great, but on the flip side you can’t deploy DRS and take a bit of time off your fastest lap.

At 16/1 the value is there for Sebastian Vettel to nail the hat-trick. If he qualifies on pole he wins, and then it’s all about knocking in some seriously fast lap times and staying out of the barrier.

Not a lot to ask of a triple world champ? Find out the latest odds on 19 Monaco Grand Prix markets including the hat-trick

HOW WIDE? Theo accurately portrays the gap between Arsenal and Spurs. He looks chuffed.

By Josh Powell | Betting news

Piers Morgan calling for Arsene Wenger’s head. Tottenham stretching clear before ultimately crumbling quicker than a rich tea biscuit in a hot brew. Arsenal sweeping in, claiming fourth with some solid performances and celebrating like it was an actual trophy. Just another season in the Premier League then.

Arsenal finished a point clear of their North-London rivals to guarantee Champions League football next year, but at what point of their topsy-turvy season did you back them to finish in the top four?

August 17 2012: 8/15

The day before the Premier League season begins. Optimism around the Emirates is sky-high as Wenger splashes more than £31 million on Santi Cazorla, Lukas Podolski and Olivier Giroud to fill the void left by a certain Robin van Persie.

September 24 2012: 2/5

Five games into the season and Arsene Wenger’s men are unbeaten. They’ve beaten Liverpool away and drawn with Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium. They also spanked six past Southampton at home. Robin who?

December 16 2012: Evens

The next 11 games are a mixture of highs and lows, mostly devastatingly crushing lows. One high is a 5-2 win over Tottenham in November but other than that it is bleak. Losses to Norwich and Swansea and draws with Aston Villa and Fulham leave them in eight, five points behind Spurs in fourth. Van Persie’s goal in United’s 2-1 win at the Emirates adds salt to the wounds and defeat to Bradford in the Carling Cup is the footballing version of kicking a man when he’s down. Right in the groin. #WengerOut

December 30 2012: 4/6

Christmas is kind as Arsenal end the year with four wins on the spin including a 5-2 thumping of Reading and a 7-3 annihilation of Newcastle. They end 2012 in fifth, three points behind Spurs but with a game in hand.

January 21 2013: 6/4

Disaster start to 2013! Defeats to Chelsea and Man City along with a 1-1 draw against Southampton put the Gunners seven points behind fourth-placed Tottenham and level on points with Liverpool and West Brom.

February 25 2013: 8/13

Arsenal go unbeaten in the next five, dropping just two points as they fly back up the league. With the game against Tottenham at White Hart Lane approaching the Gunners go two points behind Chelsea in fourth and three behind Spurs. It is squeaky bum-time in North London.

March 3 2013: 7/4

Comical defending gives Tottenham a 2-1 win and Per Mertesacker and Thomas Vermaelen couldn’t have made it much easier. Their inability to work the offside trap was reminiscent of a pub game and Arsenal go five behind Chelsea and seven behind Spurs.

WEN’ DID IT START GOING WRONG? Probably when Piers Morgan joined Twitter Arsene

April 14 2013: 2/7

All change! Arsenal win four on the spin after the defeat while Tottenham perform their annual collapse and the Chelsea players pay too much attention to avoiding questions about Rafa Benitez instead of beating Southampton. The Gunners leap to third, a point clear of Spurs and Chelsea.

April 29 2013: 1/4

Arsene Wenger’s men show some grit that many thought they didn’t have by grinding out draws against Everton and newly crowned Champions United either side of beating Fulham in a scrappy 1-0. Robin van Persie scores again to annoy the Emirates faithful but they are two points clear of Spurs in fourth with a relatively straight-forward run-in.

May 19 2013: 1/3

Going in to the last game and Arsenal lead by a point. There is still plenty to play for as Arsenal have to travel to Newcastle while Tottenham face Sunderland at home. Despite the odds Andy Gray goes against the grain and backs Tottenham to get fourth. Classic Andy.

May 19 2013 5.20pm: 1/6

There is half an hour left in both games and Arsenal look home and hosed. Laurent Koscielny put the Gunners in front in the 52nd minute and Tottenham are still struggling to break down the Black Cats.

May 19 2013 5.40: 1/12

Pretty much done and dusted. It is Champions League football for Arsene Wenger next season and another year beneath their North London rivals for Tottenham. Gareth Bale’s wonder strike (is it still a wonder strike when he does it every week?) gives Tottenham fans the smallest glimmer of hope but it is Thursday nights on ITV4 for them.

Arsenal are 8/11 to finish in the top four next year with Tottenham at 5/4. Check out the outright odds over here.

WILKINSON SOARED – In the knock-out stages, Johnny has really delivered for Toulon (pic: Inpho)

By Aidan Elder | Chief sports writer

No Irish or English interest makes the Heineken Cup more disappointing than anything 2Unlimited have done after 1993, but it’s still going to a fascinating game between two European powerhouses. The money-bags of Clermont take on the slightly bigger money-bags of Toulon and there’s more than enough English and global superstars involved to make it interesting. Here’s a run-down of five or so bets worth having based on some questionably calculated statistics.

=========================================================

IN A NUTSHELL

• CLERMONT ARE WORTHY FAVOURITES
• EXPECTING HEROICS FROM WILKINSON IS WARRANTED
• IT’LL BE CLOSER THAN A LOCK’S FACE AND A FRONT ROW’S ASS CHEEK

=========================================================

#1 Clermont to win on the handicap – Evens -3 points

‘It’ll be close’, ‘book a place on the edge of your seat’ and ‘it’s going to be so dramatic you won’t even think about getting drunk and lighting your farts until right at the end’ are a few the things Sky Sports might tell in a bid to make you forget there’s no English or Irish teams involved and then lawn needs mowing.

It probably will be close (more about that later), but a look back over the recent history books gently nudges us in the direction of Clermont covering the three point handicap at Evens.

Over the course of their last 14 matches, Clermont have won nine times and covered a three point handicap on eight of those occasions. On the flipside of that statistical scrum, three points have nudged Toulon to handicap victory six times. There’s not much in it, but at Evens, Clermont +3 look the pick.

#2 Johnny Wilkinson to score a Drop Goal – 11/10

Johnny Wilkinson and drop goals go together like Chris Ashton and having a bizarrely high opinion of yourself. There’s undoubtedly a level of cliché about it, but it’s also backed up by the stats. Johnny has scored 10 Drop Goals in his European Cup rugby career (Heineken Cup and Amlin). Five of those have come in this season and the last and all five of those have come in knock-out matches. He scored one in both the quarter-final and semi-final this time around so when the chips are down, Johnny likes to take those chips and drop kick them over the crossbar.

• It’s 4/7 that any Drop Goal (i.e. not just from Johnny) is scored in the final
• A more tempting option is Johnny to score more Drop Goals than Brock James at 13/8

ALSO: Johnny has a 100 per cent record from place kicks in his last two Heineken Cup matches (6/6 Quarter-final and 7/7 Semi-final). He’s 6/5 for another 100 per cent record in the final.

#3 Toulon forwards to outscore Clermont forwards – 5/2

Clermont’s back line firepower is astounding. Their scoring has been based on the exploits of Nalaga, Fofana, Sivivatu and to a lesser extent Rougerie and Byrne. Because the fast guys who get all the credit seem to be doing a pretty good job, the pack haven’t had to make that much of contribution to the scoring, chipping with just 17 per cent of their Heineken Cup tries this season.

In contrast, Toulon haven’t been as free-flowing. They haven’t scored a try of any description in their last three matches and when they do, they look for a greater contribution from their pack. A whopping 48 per cent of their tries in this season’s Heineken Cup have come from the more cauliflower eared part of the team and 5/2 for the Toulon forwards to score more than the Clermont forwards looks like value.

CLER’ AND PRESENT DANGER – Morgan Parra passes while in the background the Clermont pack cheat. Probably. (pic: Inpho)

#4 Clermont to get the first yellow card – 23/10

To be the best, sometimes you need to bend the rules to the point of breaking. That’s debatable, but Richie McCaw cheats a lot and New Zealand win so it must be true. In contrast however, Toulon have gotten to the Heineken Cup decider and the upper reaches of the Top 14 by being surprisingly fair. They’ve picked up just 13 cards in 26 domestic games, making them the cleanest team in the league. In contrast, Clermont have picked 20 sin-binnings from the same amount of games and are packed full of the sort of shady characters who would pimp out their grannies if it meant getting the put in to a scrum on the ten metre line. If there is going to be a card, it’s worth going with Clermont to get it at 23/10.

#5 It should be a close one

You might think it’ll be close because the two teams are French and know each other inside out. That will contribute, but it’s also likely to be close because it’s a Heineken Cup Final and they tend to be close. 70 per cent of all Heineken Cup finals have been decided by seven points or less. The average margin of victory across those 17 finals is just under eight points, but it’s been inflated by Leinster’s last couple of above average wins. The median winning margin is just five points and that’s also what it is for finals involving two French teams. Depending on which side you fancy, the Alternative Winning Margins of Clermont to win by 1-10 points at 11/8 or Toulon by 1-10 at 9/4 look nailed on to deliver.

Matt Chapman | Day One York preview

Sir Michael Stoute’s stable mightn’t be the force it once was but you’d want to be mad to think he’s going to York’s three-day Dante fixture without some serious chances.

Mind you, it won’t be in the Dante, with the news that Telescope is out of the big Derby test – more on that later in the week  – as Stoute looks for his first European Group 1 win since the  mighty Epsom Derby winner Workforce.

It could, however, be in the Tattersalls Musidora as let’s face it, if there is a possible Epsom contender in this heat then either Stoute’s Liber Nauticus or John Gosden’s Woodland Aria simply have to win – and win well.

Six winners of the Musidora have gone on to victory in the Oaks. The first was Noblesse in 1963 – the most recent Sariska in 2009.

Classic contenders

Woodland Aria is definitely worth a close look as connections were bullish when she made a winning debut at Wolverhampton. Gosden has landed the last two Musidora’s with The Fugue and Joviality.

The best of Stoute’s recent Oaks Trial victories at York was Islington in 2002 and both are owned by Ballymacoll Stud.

A CHEEKY PUNTl:  Liber Nauticus lands a Goodwood gamble last September

Liber Nauticus looked a proper prospect on her debut at Goodwood. The second that day was Heading North who has won since as has the fourth Great Timing. Although, third-placed Cushion remains a maiden.

Quite simply, if Liber Nauticus is to prove an Oaks filly she HAS to win the Group 3 Musidora Stakes  (2.45) on Wednesday.

Big Sprints

For those of you who like big sprints, the Duke of York Stakes (3.15) is the race for you.

I have given favourite Mince a hug back at Roger Charlton’s base, but she will have to run a mighty race to land this first time out – no matter how quickly she’s improving. Penalties make things hard for Gordon Lord Byron and Society Rock, while I am not sure Tickled Pink is as good as her win earlier this season suggested.

It’s a race to look for one that’s over-priced and Swiss Spirit is interesting on the first run for Gosden.

But the one I suggest  is Hawkeyethenoo. He’s had the seasonal debut to get rid of the cobwebs and loves York. Graham Lee is a plus and with Paddy Power paying 1/4 the odds the first four home looks a bit tasty at 1t 14/1. Yeeehaaa!

• Betting: Has Matt got a point? All the latest cards, form and odds here

SHUT IT SERGIO: Tiger let his golf do the talkin’ at the Players Championship (pic: Inpho)

Golf | Lining your pockets

Tiger Woods settled another score at Sawgrass at the weekend putting gobby Sergio Garcia in his place.

Spaniard Garcia’s 76 left him outside the top five and, from being in contention to win £1.2 million, he collected under £200,000.

But golf punters shut up Paddy Paddy too as 12 players returned cold, hard, cash to customers’ pockets and online accounts.

Paddy was paying the first six places in pre-tournament for the seventh time this year. So while Tiger Woods won by two shots, another six tied for shared joint second and third in golf’s fifth major which demonstrated the value of golf betting with Paddy Power.

So if you punted Kevin Streelman (tipped up by blog columnist Lawrence Donegan), Jeff Maggert, David Lingmerth, Martin Laird, Henrik Stenson or Ryan Palmer with Paddy – then well done you. They brought home the each-way money.

And if you’ve been missing out on the best golf betting in the business – pay attention…

• Paddy Power has equalled or beaten Ladbrokes in 80 per cent and William Hill 75 per cent of the time in markets so far this year. Neither has offered a single extra place this season.
• Paddy Power’s Money-Back Specials are returned in cold, hard cash unlike some of our competitors.

Not convinced?

What about Paddy’s Money-Back Special if your player birdied the 18th? If you backed Jeff Maggert, Rory Sabbatini, Jason Day, Chris Stroud and Louis Oosthuizen with anyone other than Paddy Power you’ve only yourself to blame if feeling like a Leicester fan right about now. All five delivered with the flat stick to bring up the dirty dozen of players who made you money.

The US Tour swings on to the Byron Nelson Championship on Thursday while the European Tour stages the Volvo World Match Play Championship in Bulgaria. Paddy will give you Money Back in the Volvo World Match Play Championship if your player leads through 12 and fails to win.

• Betting : Golf Coupon 

It seems not everyone is happy with head coach Warren Gatland’s squad selection for the Lions tour to Australia where they are seeking a first series win since 1997.

There were a number of high-profile absentees today including Jonny Wilkinson, Rory Best and Chris Robshaw as he named his 37-man crew.

This afternoon Paddy Power took a series of angry phonecalls from Lions players’ mums so we’ve decided to refund bets on those who didn’t make the squad in one of our famous Justice Payouts. Mums can be persuasive… especially rugby players’ mums.

As Wilkinson made himself unavailable some punters may fell hard done by, while there was genuine surprise that Rory Best (1/25) was being left behind. Other short prices that got chinned include Ian Madigan, Christian Wade, Ken Owens, Simon Zebo and Mike Ross.

So we thought it was only fair to refund all losing bets on players who didn’t make the cut. Except Chris Ashton. Feck that.

Ts&cs apply

BATTLE LIONS ARE DRAWN: Lions head coach, Warren Gatland poses with captain, Sam Warbuton and they’re joined by what looks to be Sebastian Chabal for some reason (pic: Inpho)

After all the speculation, now we know who can start getting the jabs and building up their tolerance of that unrelenting Aussie confidence. In keeping with his persona of a gruff, single-minded Kiwi who does what he wants, Warren Gatland named a Lions squad that won’t please most people outside of Wales, but one that suits him perfectly.

The knee-jerk media reaction to Jonny Wilkinson’s excellent performance for Toulon against Saracens in the Heineken Cup semi-final wasn’t enough to book his ticket and the absence of England captain, Chris Robshaw has raised many an eyebrow. The omission of Rory Best is another another puzzler, while the wisdom of selecting just two out-halves is being questioned, particularly in view of taking three scrum halves.

The squad in full is:

Full backs:

Halfpenny, Hogg, Kearny

Wings:

Bowe, Cuthbert, Maitland, North

Centres:

Davies, O’Driscoll, Roberts, Tuilagi

Half-backs:

Murray, Phillips, B. Youngs, Farrell, Sexton

Front rows:

Cole, Healy, Jenkins, A. Jones, Stevens, ,Vunipola, Hibbard, T. Youngs, Hartley

Locks:

Evans, Gray, Wyn Jones, O’Connell, Parling

Back rows:

Croft, Faletau, Heaslip, Lydiate, O’Brien, Tipuric, Warbuton (captain)

That’s 15 Welsh, 10 English, nine Irish and three Scots. Understandably, Twitter was rife with comment and opinion. Here’s some of the more interesting stuff:

Will Greenwood highlights the notable list of ommissions through the medium of e-sympathy:

Feel for… Wilko.. Zebo… Wade.. Morgan…. Madigan…. Care…. O'Mahony… Ryan… Grant….Brown… Robshaw…. To name a few….—
Will Greenwood (@GreenwoodRugby) April 30, 2013

Mrs. BOD wish Brian the best of luck. I think.

Woohoo @BrianODriscoll you flamin gallah! 🎉🎉🎉—
Amy Huberman (@amyhuberman) April 30, 2013

Then she congratulates the other Irish lads:

Well done @KearneyRob @TommyBowe14 @Paul_OConnell @ProperChurch @jamieheaslip @ConorMurray_9 @SeanOBrien1987 and Johnny 'No Twitter' Sexton!—
Amy Huberman (@amyhuberman) April 30, 2013

Wallaby, Quade Cooper celebrates the prospect of going head to head with Scotland’s Sean Maitland:

Hooooly omg my cousin made the lions!!!! I'm so damn proud of my lil cuz. Came along way from the back yard tokoroa boys with snotty noses!!—
Quade Cooper (@QuadeCooper) April 30, 2013

Jamie Heaslip allows himself to get a little soppy:

Dreams do come true….—
jamie heaslip (@jamieheaslip) April 30, 2013

OPTA Jonny turns to the stats to burst a few bubbles:

7 – Wales have lost their last seven matches with Sam Warburton as captain, including four against Australia. Skip. #Lions—
  (@OptaJonny) April 30, 2013

Brian Moore says something quite angrily, as you might expect:

Those Welsh fans mocking Robshaw's non-selection – what does that say about your sense of humour> Or humanity come to think of it.—
Brian Moore (@brianmoore666) April 30, 2013

Paul Kelso of Sky News humourously kicks the hornets nest:

Will make a change for Lions skipper to be doing the tip tackling as opposed to receiving it.—
Paul Kelso (@pkelso) April 30, 2013

The BBC’s Dan Roan provides a Twitter friendly biography of suprise pick, Matt Stevens:

Prop Matt Stevens is quite a story. Suspended for 2 yrs in '09 after drugs scandal, retired from England last year, now picked for Lions—
Dan Roan (@danroan) April 30, 2013

Frankie Sheahan consoles Munster’s Peter O’Mahony, Colm Tully spots a subtext:

EDITED… “@FrankieSheahan: Gutted for (my client) Peter O'Mahony….”—
Colm Tully (@colmtully) April 30, 2013

Austin Healey critiques the selection in a not especially specific way:

#lions2013 strange squad missing a spark and both 10's going to be in match squad for all tour games… tiring.. plenty on standby—
Austin Healey (@IamAustinHealey) April 30, 2013

The Welsh Dai Lama doesn’t feel too sorry for Chris Ashton:

Wouldn't it be great if Warren Gatland has a bit of banter with Chris Ashton tomorrow morning… #lions http://t.co/8Q7GhSd9io—
Dai Lama (@WelshDalaiLama) April 29, 2013

According to the odds, it hasn’t impacted the Lions chances of victory much. The tourists are still narrow 8/11 favourites to record their first series win since they visited South Africa in 1997.

As our office abacus tells us, 37 into 15 doesn’t go and there’s going to be fierce competition for a place in the starting XV. Johnny Sexton looks nailed on at out-half, as does Jamie Roberts at centre, but elsewhere the picture is less clear. The full range of selection headaches are available here.

Looking to rehabilitate his record after two defeats in his previous three fights, he was hoping a comprehensive win over Mexican fighter, Julio Diaz (33) in Sheffield would get him back on the road to the major world titles. He got the job done in the end, but only after being put on the seat of his pants in the fourth round. He recovered to win a unanimous points decision, but yet again, fails to be completely convincing.

By Paul Mallon | British and Irish Lions Tour 2013

Warren Gatland is not a man who likes leaks. The British and Irish Lions coach wants to keep things tight ahead of the squad announcement next Tuesday.

Speculation on the chosen few who will represent England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales, will reach fever pitch this weekend but Gatland has vowed to remain tight-lipped.

The Paddy Power Blog, less so.

“The players are going to find out with the rest of the rugby world,” Gatland said. “In the past we’ve texted players and there has been a bit of a leak but this time no one is going to know.”

Well, Warren, this is less ‘loose-tips’ and more customer insight.

Leinster’s Ian Madigan looks a cert to make the trip Down Under, given the activity around Paddy Power’s shops in the last week. By ‘activity’ we mean ‘trolley of cash’.

Ireland’s Jonathan Sexton (3/10), although still recovering from injury, and Owen Farrell (7/2) head the market in the battle to start in the No10 shirt.

Madigan is a distant 12/1 to get thrown in at the deep end, but a squad role looks increasingly certain.

‘THE WHOLE PACKAGE’: Ian Madigan has been praised by his Leinster team manager Guy Easterby

After reducing the loss of Sexton to Leinster, Madigan’s team manager there, the former Ireland player Guy Easterby, said he thinks he has the ‘whole package’. We hope that’s a reference to his ability on the pitch.

“What has been impressive about him is the work he does off the pitch in terms of his preparation because he realises if he gets his preparation right, that has a huge effect on how the team plays,” Easterby said. “If Ian knows where he wants to be, then he can direct the team around.

“That is where he is learning, where he is coming on. It is not just what you see in him kicking his goals, making his breaks or defending well. It is the whole package that has been the impressive thing.”

Warren will look to leader Warburton

The other key market move this week at Paddy Power has centred on the skipper role. Since Wales’ first-half mauling in the RBS 6 Nations by Ireland, Sam Warburton has grown in stature with every game. That’s been noticed in all quarters and he’s now just 2/9 to captain the Lions. Paul O’Connell has drifted from 4/5 a few weeks back to 5/1. And while Gatland will travel to watch him in Montpellier on Saturday as Munster take on Clermont in the Heineken Cup semi-final, the giant Irishman’s chances of leading the Lions look scuppered. Ain’t that a kick in the head.

As for the outright market, Paddy Power makes it 10/3 that the Lions come back from Australia with a 3-0 margin of victory which is the most popular bet with our customers. There’s been a nibble too in the last few days on British and Irish Lions 2-1 but very little interest a home series win.

@paulmallon1

[Click below for all  Paddy Power's Lions markets]

JUMP TO IT: Ayr hosts the Scottish National while they’re Flat out at Newbury

Sean Goff | Horseracing

The last time an Aintree Grand National winner followed-up in the 4m Scottish National the Godfather II was in post-production, Leonardo Di Caprio hadn’t been born and a pint would set you back 20 pence.

It was 1974 and men in ridiculously flared trousers cheered on the little-known Red Rum who had won the first of his three English National crowns before scooting up at Ayr.

This year’s Liverpool winner Auroras Encore bids for a famous double for Sue Smith and the weight of history – and an 11lb penalty he got for his Aintree romp – hasn’t stopped punters piling in at a tasty 14/1 this morning.

Another 23 rivals won’t make his task any easier but Paddy’s decided to level the playing field by paying 1/4 the odds the first 5 home as part of the Extra Place special on a selected race every Ch4 race-day in April and May.

In what could be a very shrewd piece of race-planning  - or just a coincidence – stable-mate Fill The Power gets in on a low weight (10-8) for the same trainer. The Racing Post’s Pricewise supporters have knocked this one into 16/1 from 20s while Big Occasion, Rival D’estruval and Monsieur Cadou are all primed to give Paddy a caning in one of the last big jumps races of the season.

With the opening Classics of the Flat season  just two weeks away  - Newbury hosts two Guineas trials in the 7f Greenham Stakes (3.30) and 7f Fred Darling Stakes (2.55).

The improving Educate – on a four-timer after winning at Doncaster, Lincoln second Global Village and Roger Charlton’s Border Legend are all being backed for the 25-runner Newbury Spring Cup (2.20) over a mile.

And if you can’t quite make up your mind who to back Paddy Power is here to banish your indecisiveness and make you the king of picking winners with his new Combined Horses product feature on PaddyPower.com (desktop only).

Thanks to the tech wizards in Power Tower you can now combine your selections to form a kind of super gee-gee. Simply pick up to three horses in any race and Paddy will give you a single price if ANY of them win the race.

• Betting: All Saturday’s card, form and action 
• How to use the Combined Horses feature

It’s a fascinating time of the four year cycle. Lots of teams are out of the running for silverware, but some players will still be giving it everything they have to impress the management. It’s like all the little annoying kids in school sticking up their hands, praying that the teacher asks them just so they can show off how great they are. Except in this case instead of ‘little annoying kids’ we have ‘grown beasts of men who could crush you at will’.

With not long to go until Warren Gatland finalises the squad he hopes will shut the Aussies’ smug gobs, players from 66.67% of the Six Nations will be trying their best to convince the Lions head coach that they’re the best man for the job.

Speculation is rife as to who will get the honour of being the one who the referee gives out to at every available opportunity that is the Lions Captaincy. Thanks to Munster’s upsetting of Harlequins, Paul O’Connell shot to surprise prominence in the last couple of weeks, but the incident in which Dave Kearney’s head viciously assaulted O’Connell’s shin may have dented his hopes. It looks like a toss-up between Sam Warbuton of Wales and Brian O’Driscoll of Ireland who are 7/5 joint favourites in the Lions Captain Betting. BOD could just shade it due to his previous experience of toss-ups – namely that time in 2005 when the All Blacks tossed the then Lions captain into the air and slammed him into the ground about a minute into that year’s series.

Across the pitch there are some fascinating contests for the starting positions. Jonathon Sexton is odds on to be the Lions’ starting outhalf, but Owen Farrell could yet benefit thanks to the Racing Metro bound star’s injury troubles. Alongside, Mike Phillips looks certain to be scrum half, but things aren’t so clear elsewhere. Five into two doesn’t go according to our abacus and that’s the scenario at centre. The odds suggest Jamie Roberts and Manu Tuilagi are the likely starters, but BOD, Brad Barritt and Jonathon Davies will all feel they’ve got a chance of squeezing their way in. On the wings, the Welsh due of Alex Cuthbert and George North are favourites to get the nod for ‘taking all the credit when everybody else did all the hard work’ duty, but the mercurial talents and swan-diving of Chris Ashton are hard to rule out. At fullback, Leigh Halfpenny is the hot favourite to start the first Test, but if Rob Kearney continues the form he showed against Munster, he could be the shrewd bet at 10/3.

PAUL OR NOTHING – O’Connell would dearly love the chance to pat a small invisible man on the head once again (pic: Inpho)

The mix between the nailed on and the still very uncertain is also continued in the pack – although in a much more burly and less flamboyant way. Ireland’s Paul O’Connell and Alun Wyn Jones are the favourites to resume their partnership at lock that began the first Test against South Africa four years ago, but it’s less clear elsewhere. Two thirds of the front row looks picked, but there’s fierce competition at hooker. Rory Best is the current favourite, but a strong end to the season from Richard Hibbard, Tom Youngs, Dylan Hartley or even Richardt Strauss would make them serious contenders for the role. The greatest competition however is probably in the back row where the Lions have an abundance of world class talent, but only three starting spots up for grabs. It speaks volumes that the betting tells us two current and one former international captains (Chris Robshaw, Jamie Heaslip and Ryan Jones) are currently outside the reckoning. If that wasn’t enough, the presence of Stephen Ferris as the 30/1 outsider of 15 shows the ferocious competition for places in the division.

But – as Gavin Henson’s career has shown us – things can change very quickly in rugby. One minute you can be the hottest property in the game and the next you’re cha-cha-cha-ing for your life on primetime television. There’s still time for the best laid plans to change and for your speculative hunches to be rewarded handsomely.

• LIONS TOUR BETTING

We’re in for one of the most open and exciting World Snooker Championships in a long time says John Parrott and he wasn’t even being sarcastic. In an exclusive column, the 1991 World Champion looks ahead to fascinating fortnight at the Crucible.

This is the most open World Championships I’ve ever seen. There’s a dozen players who could win it and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised.

The changes to the tour schedule have made it more difficult to predict because everyone is getting the chance to play themselves into form. When there were less events, players were getting knocked out early on and not playing much competitive snooker. It was easier to look at the form book and see who was playing well and who wasn’t. But now, week in week out, we’ve got different winners. It’s making picking a winner more difficult, but it’s great for the entertainment.

Not for the first time in his career, Ronnie O’Sullivan (5/1) is going to the centre of attention. I’ve been told he’s been practicing very hard and is in good shape. But practice and matchplay are two very different things. He’s going to be very rusty when it comes to performing in the glare of the spotlight and that’s got to be a concern for anyone backing him to win world title number five.

A lot will depend on his first round match and how much pressure he’ll be under. All he needs to do is get himself over the line by winning the first game and his confidence will grow. There’s no easy draws in the World Championship, but he’s done alright by landing Marcus Campbell, particularly when you look at some of the names he might have got. Marcus is a very good player, but his highest break in qualifying was just 52 and he hasn’t shined very often in front of the TV cameras.

RUSTY ROCKET? Is four time world champion battle hardened enough to win title number five? (pic: Inpho)

If Ronnie gets past that first game, who knows, but it’s asking a hell of a lot to be out for that long and to go and win. There’s been some issues away from the table for Ronnie and that’s entirely his business, but the bottom line is he’s coming back to the Crucible, the place will sell out and it will be buzzing whenever he’s playing. That can only be good for snooker. If he wins without having had his cue out of the case in a competitive match for the best part of 12 months, it will be one of the all-time great achievements in the history of the World Championships.

When it comes to picking a winner, I’m finding it very tough. Even looking beyond Ronnie as some people will be tempted to do, you’ve got the nucleus of ten or so who could easily do it. Neil Robertson, Mark Selby, John Higgins, Judd Trump, Stephen Maguire, Shaun Murphy and a whole host of other experienced players who know how to win tournaments. They all seem to take turns beating each other so it’s hard to pick one name out of the bunch and say ‘yeah, he’s definitely the one to beat’.

The one I’m going for is Neil Robertson. He’s in the bottom half of the draw and there’s a reason that’s called the ‘half of doom’. It’ll be tough, but after Adam Scott winning the Masters, Australian sport might be on a bit of a roll. He’s in the harder section of the two, but if he gets through that, he’ll be battle-hardened for the latter stages and then it’ll be hard to stop him.

My more speculative bet is Shaun Murphy. It’s strange saying it about a guy who has already won a World Championship, but it’s about time he started playing properly here. The draw hasn’t been too unkind to him He’s got O’Sullivan, Trump and Higgins on his side of the draw and each of them could be vulnerable. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him reach a final and maybe even win it.

• Betting: World Championship Snooker coupon