Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to………

The Prince of Denmark’s vacillations have resonance here and the idea that Munster have been made favourites makes for a loaded 4/5. My Irish Times colleague GT is always muttering darkly, whatever about backing Munster ‘don’t back against Munster’.

Certainly, their seven post-Pool defeats since 2000 have been loosely Identifiable. Northampton (final 2000), Leicester (final 2002), Stade Francais (QF 2000) and Wasps (SF 2005) had questionable and fatal refereeing decisions close to the end.

For another two, Biarritz (QF 2005) and Llanelli (QF 2007) Munster were seemingly out-of-sorts in a hostile atmosphere - their fans completely out-numbered - and were beaten dockets by half-time.

Then there is Toulouse (QF 2003), a narrow single point 13-12 loss that could have gone either way. It’s worth keeping in mind that this game had only one try too. It’s the Big Red One’s fourth final of which the first two went west but overall Munster with little or no advantage in the been-there-seen-that stakes.

Toulouse have played 93 Heineken Cup games and won trophy twice; Munster 92 games and won the trophy twice. Moreover, Paul O’Connell made the best point this week in The Star when he steered people clear of stereotyping Toulouse.

“There may be this thing about French teams ‘not turning up’ when they play away home,” offered Munster’s toughest cookie. “But you look through the team and the squad and you see so many different nationalities.”

Unfortunately the form guide here has all the hallmarks of being unreliable too, like the Devil quoting scripture it is open to interpetations. Toulouse lost to Leinster in a poor game and won with a Jeckyll and Hyde performance in Toulouse, unprepossessing the first-half, dangerously lethal in the second.

Munster beat, let’s be honest here, Clermont Auvergne’s reserve team in Limerick before losing to the French side in Clermont, a match they never really looked like winning.

The statistic I don’t like is partly in there too, Munster lost two group fixtures albeit while swimming in a shark-infested Pool containing Wasps, Llanelli and Clermont.

I’s been ten years since Munster lost three Heineken fixtures in a season.

Not wanting to back against Munster means there has to be a corollary though…they can only win if it’s a low scoring game.

Take the spreadbetting to have the match points’ score below 25 points.

Enjoy - Derek

Jump safely now.

If the betting market for the Ireland Coach’s job were a Grand National field, the Handicapper would be shot. Never in my life have I seen such a bunch of no-hopers and badly priced contender(s) at the head of a betting market. Just looking at the runners/riders and the way they have been priced is making me queasy. Consider this a betting preview: Let’s call it the real story or alternatively, There Is Only One F in Form

3/1 Declan Kidney “Crazed odds for a bloke the IRFU is so paranoid about they practically keep a Stazi-type file on (informers, spies and all kinds of accusatory notes!) him.”

4/1 Pat Howard “Moved away from the Northern Hemisphere and Leicester Tigers last year to bring up his young children in Australia. Would he return less than a year later?”

9/2 Wayne Smith “Simple choice here. Would he prefer be All Black Assistant and therefore in line to be next AB Coach or Ireland Coach?”

5/1 Mike Ruddock “Not a snowball’s hope in Hell; 150/1 wouldn’t do him justice. Not one Wales player has ever credited him for the 2005 Wales Grand Slam, rather they credited NZ’ers Steve Hansen/Glenn Johnson.

8/1 Jake White “He once said in 2004 there were no Irish players good enough to play for South Africa, how would he explain that away?; wants England job; would cost 750k.”

8/1 Alan Gaffney “What age is Alan Gaffney? 67-ish. Would the IRFU appoint a Head Coach that age? No.”

12/1 Ian McGeechan “Who on earth dreamed this up? Has slagged off Ireland and it’s rugby and Munster and Leinster for years. The IRFU would rather choke.

16/1 Brian Smith “No chance. Laughed himself to death when conning Ireland into capping him; has been almost anti-Irish at London Irish. No English silverware and One Heineken Cup campaign’s experience to date.

16/1 Heyneke Meyer “44 years of age and reigning Super-14 champion coach; currently unemployed after getting in a strop with SARFU over the Springbok job; has said he’ll never coach again in SA. Contender.

16/1 John Connolly “Hmmm, maybe. That is if enough people have forgotten he promised to take the Munster job in 1997 and reneged a few days before the first H Cup match.”

20/1 John Mitchell “Has everyone forgotten he went barmy during the 2003 World Cup when he was the All Blacks coach? Weird press conferences, scuffles on hotel steps, accusations…”

20/1 Michael Cheika “Nice guy but…not near enough top grade experience until arrival at Leinster. First H Cup season – semi-final; 2nd H Cup season – quarter-final; 3rd H Cup season – failed to make it from Pool. There is a year-on-year problem there.

20/1 Michael Bradley “No Heineken Cup experience whatsoever. The IRFU didn’t trust him enough to let him pick the Ireland ‘A’ team this season and got EOS to pick it for him.”

20/1 Mike Ford “Has never coached a Rugby Union side.”

20/1 Niall O’Donovan “Interesting in that he could be given the Summer Tour. If he did well there it would be a bet. 20/1 is a bit short though.

20/1 Vern Cotter “Why on earth would the IRFU pick the Clermont Auvergne coach ahead of the Munster coach? Desist!

22/1 David Nucifora “Top Super-14 coach with Auckland Blues. Good bet, all-right price, good chance if interested.”

33/1 Shaun Edwards “Good bet good chance if he decides Ireland boss job is better than No2 at Wales or England.”

33/1 Nick Mallet “Once lead the Springboks to 17 consecutive victories. Again, reasonable odds if you felt he would leave Italy.

40/1 Bernard Laporte “Bernard’s in politic now with Sarkozy. Hardly likely to leave that neighbourhood so quickly.”

50/1 Matt Williams “Good value at around 1,000/1 following his record as an international coach with Scotland.

200/1 George Hook “Would talk a good game but the money would go in bookies pocket.”

Here are some guys you actually need to take into account, the other top Super-14 coaches Colin Cooper (Hurricanes), Laurie Fisher (Brumbies), Ewan McKenzie (Waratahs), Dirk Muir (Sharks), Ian Foster (Chiefs)…

And just to make another point, Canada have just appointed an NZ ‘Resource Coach’, Kieran Crowley. He is All Black U21 (i.e. World Champions) coach and his CV was probably good enough for us. He would never, ever have appeared in the betting.

Good luck!

Recommendation: At the moment don’t back anything under 16/1, Kidney will most likely ease in the betting anyway; try Meyer or Nucifora.

Work this one out yourself…

Ireland and Wales will not be pretty but take Ireland at 2/1 to win by 1-10 points following blood, tears, sacrifice, guts and sheer bloody-mindedness.

Those wondering what’s on my mind will have to accept that yesterday was day Colonel William Travis drew the now very, very famous line for his troops.

Travis (a stand-offish type) took out his sword and ‘drew a line in the sand’ asking anyone who didn’t want to stay to step over it.

Jim Bowie (a hero!) and Davy Crockett (a popular leader and a hero!), The Tennessee-ans (rugged non-city types), the New Orleans Grays (city types) all had faith and stayed.

And here we are with Eddie O’Sullivan, hero of three Triple Crowns and anti-hero of the World Cup, in siege mentality in advance of a match which will define Ireland’s rugby future.

Ireland will either hold fast at Croke Park on Saturday; or put to the sword by a former ruler flying a blood-scarlet standard and in no mood for platitudes.

If overrun, O’Sullivan’s tenure could be over; if his team sees of Gatland’s guns he will see Ireland through to the next World Cup.

Anyway as for the Alamo, how about this for a similarity, the Texans had secured the mission in the first week in February co—incidentally 6N kick-off time.

Almost a month later, on March 6th, Travis asked for unswerving loyalty from his troops, they had to hold on - it was to be ignominy or glory.

Take Travis as Eddie O’Sullivan; Brian O’Driscoll as Davy Crockett, Paul O’Connell as Jim Bowie.

All but one bloke bought into Travis’s speech in the dressing room at The Alamo and (despite the bloodbath) Texas was saved.

By the way, you can watch a Hollywood version of The Alamo with Billy Bob Thornton as Paul O’Connell, sorry, Davey Crockett, on RTE2 at 9pm on Sunday.

And by the way for those unable to sleep easy about the hefty bet I’m suggesting you put down at 2/1 remember they didn’t get much sleep at The Alamo either with those Mexicans playing those damn trumpets all night every night.

I’ve a Webster’s Dictionary and it has plenty of useful words that namesake Simon might be interested in.

That’s Simon Webster, by the way, selected at second-centre for Scotland against Ireland at Croke Park on Saturday.

He could, for instance, look up ‘Marking’ and find out that while it can refer to something on the side of an aircraft it has a rugby meaning too.

Or trawl on to ‘Tackle’ which can refer to the tools taken fishing, yet it too has a rugby meaning.

Simple Simon needs to know these words because they have been seriously absent from, if not his rugby vocabulary then certainly his rugby repertoire in the past.

Just how he – and remember he has been a winger up until now - is expected to stop Brian O’Driscoll from scoring at Croke Park is beyond the ken of normal thinking (clearly Frank Hadden has a theory but he hasn’t shared it).

That will be a hungry Ireland captain, by the way, who won’t have crossed for an international try in Dublin in 1,077 days by Saturday.

He has scored tries in Australia, South Africa, New Zealand, France, England, Wales, Scotland, Italy and Lansdowne Road.

The glaring gap in his CV is Croke Park, ironically, a ground he was born and reared in the shadow of, and consequently, shared the Dublin 3 postcode with.

BOD was also talking this week about his ‘new’ second-centre policy with Andrew Trimble rather than Gordon D’Arcy, a player who will look to ‘feed’ him more:

“When I came into international rugby I was about 90kgs and I had to go around people, now I’m around 98kgs, I can take the short-cut through people…”

That’s it so, chi’ching, Ireland to beat Scotland on the handicap, BOD to score and leave tyre-marks all over Webster.

Pity that we are starting from scratch in monetary terms after the ‘flyer’ against Italy;

I calculated rightly that France’s XV as picked would beat the Ireland XV on the handicap and they had before Marc Lievremont’s kamikaze withdrawal of his front-row, a back-row and scrum-half and replacing them with, well, incompetents.

Here’s hoping you have a nice bundle of cash following One ‘F’’s opening ‘chi-ching’, the Roberto Calvi of last weekend (Italian banker).

Roll the loot over at 10/11 on the startling assertion France are a -13 handicap.

There is no template allowing Ireland to hand out three starting Six Nations debuts (Jackman, Heaslip, Kearney) in Paris and ask Trimble to defend from first centre for the first time in his life.

In the first case poor Jamie Heaslip is being asked to be pack leader and run the game - the no8’s job - on his debut.

The Jackman thing is astonishing; Leinster don’t think their hooker is fit enough to play the last 20 mins and even O’Sullivan admits this week Jackman’s throwing isn’t great - we’ll be constantly going to the front which gives zero attacking pace.

Rob Kearney is up against France’s fastest and most powerful runner, Aurilien Rougerie; Kearney has full-back’s speed, not a winger’s.

Trimble’s problems will be all the more difficult as Emile N’tamack - the French coach - has been waiting for a chance to get his own back on Brian O’Driscoll.

The Irish captain turned him like an old man to complete that 2000 hat-trick and he will have homework done.

There are just so many Irish problems that this is a nightmare. Admittedly most of them are singular, but collectively…

We were beaten out the gate two years ago by half-time and and by hour here at the World Cup.

No Hickie, no D’Arcy, no Flannery, no O’Connell all adds up to life-jackets and bailing from early on.

First try scorer? Damian Traille to make it through O’Gara and Trimble’s neighbourhood - let’s just hope they don’t route the highway through there.

Otherwise it could drive us all around the bend by tea-time tomorrow.

The best value 2008 Six Nations bet of all is Italy to come in under the + 16 handicap on Saturday.

The song here is nothing to do with Ireland whom we’re assuming EOS’s will play competently-to-good, improving on RWC form to around 80 per cent of last season’s Six Nations’ capability.

I’m also betting Ireland start slowly, tread carefully and won’t try anything ‘wow’ until they are at least 11 but more likely 15 points ahead.

Simply, there are a heap Italians with competitive Heineken clubs…anything up to seven of their players would get their game for Ireland on Heineken form.

Stade Francais’ Sergio Parisse is the best No8 in the Northern Hemisphere and, maybe the world, while Mauro and Mirco Bergmasco are proven quality acts.

Martin Castrogiovanni is the best tight-head in the Six Nations and don’t be fooled by loose-head Andrea LoCicero’s given club as Racing Paris, they are massively-ambitious and paid huge bucks for him.

Toulouse’s Sergio Perugini and Gloucester’s Carlos Nieto are the props on the bench!

Gonzalo Canale, Santiago Dellape and Carlo del Fava are also Heineken standard playing with ASM Clermont-Ferrand, Biarritz and Ulster.

Personally, I also rate ‘new’ full-back David Bartolussi who missed last season’s Six Nations through injury.

Italy have always had a problem with full-backs and the French-Swiss Montpelier RFC Top 14 player came as a gift from heaven; he solves a second problem too, he is an excellent place kicker (even though he missed that last minute kick against Scotland.)

Now I’ve just made a case for nine starters and two front-row subs…while, of the potential weak links it could be a lot worse.

Pablo Canovosio is with French Top 14 club Castres while Leonardo Ghiraldini, Josh Sole and Kaine Robertson have plenty of Heineken experience albeit with Italian clubs.

Now, that just leaves the half-backs and interestingly new coach Nick Mallet has taken a Springbok trick to solving the out-half problem and will use Biarritz’s Andrea Masi, normally a no12.

He is banking on the stocky powerhouse who is a good passer of the ball and who, when in trouble, will be able to put his head down and retain possession.

We don’t know anything about Masi’s tactical kicking but my guess is Bartolussi will be in gainful employment here when the ball is in the Italian half.

Have to hold my hands up about scrum-half Pietro Travagli, two caps to date and playing with Parma. He has been plucked from virtual obscurity and Nick Mallet’s judgment is all we can trust here.

Italy always start the Six Nations strongly with heart and integrity while their opening games for both John Kirwan and Pierre Berbizier were also noted for commitment that was ratcheted up.

Anyway with +16 to work with, there are a lot of plusses for Italy around the park. It’s a gift.

PS: we are going to use this money to fund a Six Nations chi’ching. Stay tuned.

In Clermont Ferrand

Morrissey’s here!!! No, not Fred Morrissey or Joesphine Morrissey or Manu Wang Choi Morrissey, the real thing.

Heaven knows why he has forsaken the world to travel to Clermont Ferrand and play a gig here but, hey, what’s that joke about God even following Munster.

(Three requests on the comment line and I will tell the greatest Irish rugby joke of all time.)

So what have we got here in Clermont aside from the presence of the Ringleader of the Tormentors, clearly in the vangaurd of those arriving in Clermont Ferrand this morning.

Right so, we’ll take +9 about Munster at 10/11 for starters.

The Red Brigade very rarely leave anything behind on big foreign trips - their’s is a light that never (ever) goes out - and PP’s might even be pushing it at 3/1 against them storming the match.

Also, while I am currently writing this ensconsed midnight Friday night at Aux 4 Vents (the Four Darts) listening to a rock’n'roll band called Wayward Gentlewomen, hark at this.

It’s freezing, crap, and raining outside which ought to suit Declan Kidney’s Long Riders - the pitch is already in shit.

On a similar but different note, somewhat t-t-t-tempting fate there is an 150/1 price on Doug Howlett’s head to score a hat-trick.

Okay, no Panic on the streets of…:and Howlett is playing his first game.

But he maybe the planet’s fastest winger; the NZ’s played him on right but Munster have put him on the ’strike’ side; and Munster are obdurate enough to toss him the ball just so he could complete a hat-trick if the oppo came about.

What’s that Morrissey said about Munster Heart, English Blood? Jeez if this isn’t an omen, heaven knows I’ll be miserable here…

PS: getting strictly back to our wallets, be very careful of the Leinster-Toulouse game and make sure you have an opinion before you take punt.

And secondly, don’t touch Llanelli, the side they have picked haven’t an earthly of beating Wasps.

Should you bet on Eddie O’Sullivan’s Ireland - form-guide 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 2003-07 - finally winning the Six Nations?

At 9/2 it is worth the rush…and slipping the 5/4 ‘save’ on France.

Ireland have Italy (100/1), Scotland (14/1) and Wales (8/1) at home; it looks like three bankers.

England (2/1) may be extra vulnerable on the final day at Twickenham - the fixtures are listed at the bottom - if they have already lost interest in the title.

Thus when it comes to a Grand Slam Ireland would be looking to win in Paris on Week Two; but then you don’t have to win a Grand Slam to win the Championship.

France, after all, failed at the World Cup on their own soil and they have a new coach Marc Lievremont.

His coaching credentials are weak, two years France U21 and two years Dax RFC (promoted to Top-14 last season but kind of a West Brom and expected to drop again this term).

It’s 2001 since France last threw a ‘wobbly’ but it’s worth remembering they only won two games and finished fifth..

Many feel England’s team of 30-somethings played way beyond themselves at the World Cup while their coach Brian Ashton was ridiculed by a section of their players.

Hands up if you believe that Jonny Wilkinson can beat teams on his own any more? Their image has cracked and it’s rebuild time there.

Expect Wales to start slowly under new coach Warren Gatland while they will be hoping Dwayne Peel, Shane Williams, Gavin Henson, Stephen Jones and Alix Popham all on their way back from injury get some Heineken Cup time in the next two weeks.

The Welsh have France in Cardiff on the last day and Warren Gatland may well have gotten hold of his side by then…

There is no reason to believe Scotland will improve in any significant (not a front-row or a No10 in sight!).

Italy’s input might be to ‘jump’ someone in Rome (still, the most reliable bet in the Six Nations is Italy to beat the handicap in their games).

And OneF’s ‘unpopular’ support for Ireland in what looks like an open year?

Well right now Dempsey/Murphy; Fitzgerald/Trimble, O’Driscoll, D’Arcy, Horgan; O’Gara, Stringer; Horan, Flannery, Hayes, O’Callaghan/, O’Connell, S Easterby, Wallace, Leamy/Heaslip are all fit to play this weekend.

It’s the Beef Or Salmon bet, we may just have play as well as we did in 2003, 2004, 2006 or 2007 and watch the others fall, come back or simply cock it up to us.

Remember, the Championship isn’t always won with a Grand Slam. 9/2 on Ireland and slip the ‘save’ on France at 5/4,

SIX NATIONS FIXTURES 2008

Saturday, Feb 2 Ireland v Italy (2pm); England v Wales (4.30pm) Sunday, Feb 3 Scotland v France (3pm).
Saturday, Feb 9 Wales v Scotland (2pm); France v Ireland (4pm) Sunday, Feb 10 Italy v England (2.30pm).
Saturday, Feb 23 Wales v Italy (3pm); Ireland v Scotland (5pm); France v England (8pm).
Saturday, Mar 8 Ireland v Wales (1.15pm); Scotland v England (3.15pm) Sunday, Mar 9 France v Italy (3pm).
Saturday, Mar 15 Italy v Scotland (1pm); England v Ireland (3pm); Wales v France (5pm).

View Latest Odds

There’s wouldn’t normally be any Bah! Humbug! around this 5/2 winning betting slip.

But looking at a rather miserly handicap on the Red Brigade to beat Llanelli Scarlets on Sunday, we’re wondering about Paddy Christmas.

Munster WILL win against Llanelli in Limerick amid lunchtime cheer (and we know the healthy 5/2 about it).

But steer clear of the -14 on the handicap, Munster are much too shrewd to go chasing matches and bonus points when there are possible glitches about.

The return of out-half Stephen Jones and Alix Popham – the Scarlets’ two best players last season in the quarter-final win at Stradey Park - will be enough to keep the home side’s sirens flashing..

Remember this too, by the time Munster trot out at Thomond (26 wins from 25 Heineken games since 1995) Wasps will already have played Clermont Auvergne and Declan Kidney will have seen whether any bonus points were picked up.

If the winner doesn’t tack on a four-try a bonus point, Munster won’t be too pushed…

Anyway, the better bet is to take Munster with PP’s to win by 1-10 points, a bet that weighs in nicely at 5/2.

PS: Is that true that Rafa Benitez is stepping up his rotation policy by request of the players? Apparently they need to keep the burglars guessing on match day…

Munster have a brilliant offer, you can put a brick in their new Thomond Park wall/walkway for €75.

Those who have been to the Millennium Stadium will immediately recognise good value.

The double-up question is, whether or not you can recognise good Munster value when it comes to the trip to Llanelli’s (dump) Stradey Park on Saturday night?

Personally, I’m not a great fan of The Who…

(One-trick ponies tune-wise and, yes My Generation is brilliant but don’t gimme Squeezebox, Substitute, You Betta You Bet or anything like - mind you, kicking over the drums over is fun but a nonetheless more Screamin’ Lord Sutch than anything else.)

…although I’ll give them a pass mark for ‘Won’t get Fooled Again’ which is most apt in Munster’s case.

Remember too, the famous ‘txt’ as exclusively revealed by The Star at the time and sent around midnight by then-skipper Anthony Foley following their 2006 semi-final win.

It read: ‘Munster never allow themselves get beaten by the same side twice’.

It was a reference to Biarritz beating them a little over 12 months earlier in San Sebastian in the quarter-final.

Last season, Llanelli beat then in Stradey Park in the quarter-final, a loss which ended the European Champions reign. That hurt.

Stung by the loss against Leinster last week – it could just as easily have been a win despite the way the triumphal-ist Dublin media spun it – Munster will be evah-so-dangerous.

The handicap will be in Munster’s favour too, so 10/11 will be the safe, this is THE bet of the weekend.

Most importantly when it comes to Munster winning without the handicap, I’d expect the probable Llanelli front-row of Iestyn Thomas, Matthew Rees and Deacon Manu to struggle against Munster’s munch.

It’s in these kind of games, when he is not being put through a front-row wringer, by the way, that Jerry Flannery excels – take him as first try-scorer if you fancy that market.

Leinster are home to Edinburgh and should win here but as always, it’s worth waiting on the price as it will be determined whether or not BOD plays.

At this point, it’s impossible to see Michael Cheika risking both come-back Girvan Dempsey and injured-last-week O’Driscoll.

Worry and be careful if both are ruled out.