Sunday and Monday’s matches

Man Utd v Man City – Sun. 1.30pm Live on Sky Sports 1

Believe it or not, the match is secondary for me in this one. I’ll be at Old Trafford on Sunday and the most important thing for me is the minute silence. When you’ve got 76,000 people in a stadium, it’s always hard to have total silence, but anything other than that will be a poor reflection on the city of Manchester. Regardless of the match, I just hope that minute passes with the silence and respect it deserves. Had it been a minute’s applause, it would have been easier as no-one could disrupt it, but all you can is hope that the Man City fans at the game – and I’m talking about a tiny minority who might have had a bit too much to drink – don’t ruin the tribute to an extremely talented group of players.

Looking at the game, it should be a cracker. United are going great guns, although they had that hiccup last week at Spurs. Man City were also going along well until a few weeks ago and because of the occasion, I can see the United players just raising their game that bit more and winning the game. As with all Manchester derbies, City will give nothing away cheaply and United will have to work hard, but I think they’ll win the game, possibly by a two goal margin.

Lou’s Recommendation: United to win by 2 goals @ 11/4

_____________________________________________

Chelsea v Liverpool – Sun. 4pm Live on Sky Sports 1

Avram Grant has really settled in well at Chelsea and they have been on a great run of form since he took over, particularly in recent weeks. They missed out on setting that new club record last week, but there’s still plenty for them to be happy about especially when you consider that they have been without John Terry and Didier Drogba for the last few weeks. They’re playing some good football too which is something that can’t be said about Liverpool.

They beat Sunderland 3-0 last week yet didn’t look entirely convincing. As difficult as it is for Liverpool fans to accept, we’ve reached another February and yet again they are nowhere near contending for the title. I can see the players realising that and coming unstuck. The absence of Torres is another dent to their chances of winning and I’d fancy Chelsea to claim the win.

Lou’s Recommendation: Chelsea to win the match @ 4/5

_____________________________________________

Arsenal v Blackburn – Mon. 8pm Live on Setanta

After a strong start to the season, it has all gone wrong for Blackburn and listening to what Mark Hughes has been saying, I’m not convinced he knows what the problem is. The fans were starting to believe they could get into the Top 6 this season and the form over the last few months has been woeful. They look right out of sorts and the good football they were playing last year is nowhere to be seen.

The last place you want to go to when you’re out of form is the Emirates. Arsenal are top of the table, they’ll be desperate to win the game and I can’t see Blackburn being able to contain them. In the past, Blackburn have raised their game to grab a point off the Gunners, but I can’t see that happening this time. Arsenal will win the game and win it comfortably.

Lou’s Recommendation: 3-0 Arsenal @ 7/1

Saturday’s Matches

Aston Villa v Newcastle – Sat. 12.45pm Live on Sky Sports 1
With no wins in their last 6 league games, there are plenty of people expecting the Newcastle players to step up to the plate and deliver for Kevin Keegan, but my problem with that is do they have the players that are good enough to step up to the plate? Since Kevin Keegan took over, we’ve been waiting week after week to see an improvement and it’s not being harsh to say it hasn’t happened. The fact that King Kev is having similar problems with Newcastle as Big Sam suggests to me that the problem is down to the playing staff.

No matter who the manager is, it’s the players that determine how successful or unsuccessful a team is. I look at the Newcastle team and I can’t see where the next win is coming from. Their goal last week was the first of Keegan’s second stint and that was in a game they should really be winning at home to Middlesbrough. I was certain that the Boro game would give them the chance to turn the corner, but once again they flattered to deceive. I can’t see them getting much joy out of a trip to Villa Park. In other years, I’d be tipping Newcastle to go down, but this year there are too many poor sides around them and they’ll be safe for at least another season.

Villa unexpectedly lost to Fulham last week, but I’m sure Martin O’Neill and his players will completely focused on getting back on track. I’d like to see Newcastle bouncing back, but it doesn’t look likely and it has to be a home win this one for me.

Lou’s recommendation: Aston Villa to win 2-1 @ 7/1

___________________________________________________

Sunderland v Wigan – Sat. 3pm Live on Set. Irl

Games like this are always tough to call, but Sunderland have the best home record of the teams fighting for survival and you’d have to side with them. Away from home, they don’t look capable of winning, but Roy is aware that your home form is the key to survival and as long as they win or at the very least don’t lose games like this, they’ll hang in there.

The main problem is that they are suffering from a whole host of injuries and they are basically missing their first choice midfield this week. Andy Reid isn’t 100% fit, but it looks like he’ll start and that’s not the ideal situation for Roy Keane. I’m concerned that won’t be able to cope without their midfield quartet in such an important game.

It’s a battle of the former team-mates at Man Utd. Both managers are desperate for the 3 points, but I reckon they could both be disappointed as I can see this one ending up as a draw.

Lou’s recommendation: 1-1 Draw @ 9/2

Luton v Liverpool

The FA Cup is famous for it’s upsets over the years and ties like this have brought about a good result for the underdog but this is one game to be quite honest with you at 2/7 I do see Liverpool as an absolute banker. They’re not playing great by any means and in weeks gone by they’ve stuttered a little bit and teams have changed as normal under Rafa Benitez. He’s starting to come under a little bit of pressure himself and unfortunately for him I think the team he puts out on the pitch from week to week isn’t as good as Liverpool teams of the past and Liverpool supporters expect better. I don’t think they’ll have to play a great deal better than they have been playing to beat Luton Town, I mean Luton Town are in administration, they’ve been deducted points and could be heading for a lower division. I think one bright note they’ve had in the last month or so is a couple of games ago they played a game with nine men and managed to win but I think even if Liverpool played this game with nine men I still see the 2/7 as being an absolute banker. If Luton do get a goal, that’s where the value lies in the correct score market but I can’t really see that happening and I don’t think there’s going to be any kind of cup upset here. I think it’s 2-0 or 3-0 to Liverpool, take your pick.

Aston Villa v Manchester United
Up until a couple of games ago you’d have said that Manchester United could go to Villa Park and come away with a win but after the defeat to West Ham it’s left everyone in a little bit of doubt. It was the first time this season you could really look at the United back four and say that on the day they were very, very poor. On top of the two goals they conceded West Ham could have scored another two or three and that doesn’t happen very often on their travels with Manchester United. Normally the defence has been rock solid and goalkeeper Edwin Van Der Saar has been in inspired form for most of the season but for some reason everything seemed to come unstuck at Upton Park. Since then they’ve played Birmingham City and I was at that game and really Birmingham could have had a couple of goals. Once or twice they were in the box and the defensive play from Manchester United wasn’t as sound as it’s been for most of the season. So I do give Villa a bit of a chance, unfortunately for them United have a great record at Villa Park, especially in the FA Cup and it seems to be a happy hunting ground for them. As well as Villa are playing at this moment in time I still think Manchester United won’t get knocked out of the cup on Saturday night, I think they could possibly take them back to Old Trafford for a replay.

Stoke v Newcastle
I live in Stoke and cup fever is gripping the city because they can see a cup upset here, the Stoke City supporters. Their own team’s in good form, they’re obviously aware of what’s happening at Newcastle. Sam Allardyce has gone up North and everyone was expecting a massive turnaround in fortune but that hasn’t happened. When you look at the Newcastle side they’re obviously lacking confidence, goals are hard to come by and defensively they look all over the place. I think if there is the possibility of one cup upset this weekend it could be at the Britannia Stadium. However in saying that when Stoke City, a Championship side, do end up facing a team from the Premier League it’s only then that they realise that life would be a lot tougher if they did manage to get promotion. I can see this as being a possible drawn match, Newcastle coming to the Britannia Stadium looking for any kind of result to keep their season going and of course at 9/4 the draw, that would be a result for Sam Allardyce, it would be a result for Newcastle taking Stoke City back up North and another chance for Newcastle to get through this tie.

Burnley v Arsenal
I do see this as an away banker at 4/11. Owen Coyle had such a good start that even Burnley supporters started thinking of promotion but in the last two or three weeks that good run has come to an abrupt halt and results have been poor in the last few games. When you look at Arsenal and the teams they put out in the Carling Cup, usually those sides are good enough to get them through but I do think Arsene Wenger will put a little more importance on the FA Cup than he does on the Carling Cup and I think that’s the case with all managers now and most clubs. They’re regarding the FA Cup as more of a priority than in recent years. I know three or four years ago most clubs were putting out weakened sides but I don’t see that as the case now. Everyone wants to get to the new Wembley, everyone wants to get to a cup final in May, I know the supporters certainly do and I think Arsene Wenger will put out a slightly stronger side than he does in the Carling Cup and that will be enough to knock Burnley out of the FA Cup.

Aston Villa v Portsmouth – Sat. 12.45pm Live on Sky Sports 1
I was at Fratton Park last weekend for Portsmouth’s match with Everton and I have to say I was extremely disappointed with the match and the performance from Portsmouth. In contrast to what we’ve seen in recent years, they have a fantastic record away from home and haven’t always got going in front of their own fans this season.

They’re up against an Aston Villa side that are going great guns at the moment. They put in a great performance against Arsenal, but didn’t get the result that Martin O’Neill wanted or that they deserved. Throughout the game they really stuck with it and looked like a much more solid side than the Villa side of last season. That’s pretty much how Martin O’Neill works. Give him a bit of time and he will get things right with any team. Although Portsmouth have a great away record, I think Villa will have a bit too much for Pompey.

Lou’s Recommendation: Aston Villa to win the match

______________________________________________________

Man Utd v Derby – Sat. 3pm Live on Setanta
I’m told that the odds of Derby winning at Old Trafford are amongst the biggest in the history of the Premier League and to be honest, you’d have to double them before I’d be interested in a punt on the Rams. Quite simply, they’re a poor side. I know Paul Jewell has gone in there and he’s a good manager, but I don’t think any manager could work the type of miracle that is needed with that team. They have a terrible defence and above all else in the Premier League, that’s where you need to be reasonably strong. I think they’re destined for the Championship.

Man Utd haven’t really been firing on all cylinders in recent weeks. There was that loss to Bolton and the lacklustre wins over Sporting Lisbon and Fulham, but they will be far too good for Derby and it’s just a matter of picking the correct score. We can expect Man Utd to go at them right from the start and I’d be looking for United to win by at least three goals and possibly as much as five.

Lou’s recommendation: Man Utd to win 4-0

______________________________________________________

Reading v Liverpool – Sat. 5.15pm Live on Setanta
Liverpool are the in form team in the Premier League after thumping Bolton, Newcastle, Porto and Besiktas in recent weeks and I think that’s down to the fact that Rafa Benitez has finally learned his lesson and isn’t chopping and changing the side to the same extent as he has in the past. He got that, shall we say ‘a bit of advice’ from the American owners and to his credit, he has gone about the business of coaching his players.

It’s always hard to pick up three points on the road in the Premier League, just look at Arsenal during the week when they were expected to put Newcastle to the sword. The Big 4 can come a cropper in games like these and although I can’t see Liverpool losing the match, I just think Reading have a couple of players that can cause them trouble.

Lou’s recommendation: 1-1 Draw

West Ham v Tottenham – Sunday 1.30pm Live on Sky Sports 1
West Ham will be full of confidence after their 5-0 victory over Derby, but this is a big London Derby and as the saying goes, we can tear up the form book for these encounters. These two teams served up a cracker last season when it looked like Tottenham were home and dry, but West Ham turned it around to claim a fantastic three points. I can see more of the same in this fixture.

I’m expecting a ding-dong affair, end to end stuff with both defences being very very suspect. I think whatever defence holds it together better on the day will decide who wins this one. Both teams have exciting forward players, but some poor defenders and I can see this one ending up as a draw.

Lou’s prediction: 2-2 Draw
______________________________________________________

Fulham v Blackburn – Sunday 4pm Live on Sky Sports 1
Blackburn are in great form and there could be some good times ahead now that Mark Hughes has signed his new contract. They’ll definitely have plenty of people backing them to beat Fulham because Fulham are bang in trouble. If you want to stay in the Premier League you have to win your home games and this is a game that I’m sure Lawrie Sanchez will feel they’re capable of winning.

Fulham need to improve their form but at the moment they have a man upfront who can do anything – David Healy. With him in the side, you’ve always got a chance and I think Fulham look like value. Every weekend you get a shock result in the Premier League and I have a sneaking suspicion that this could be the upset for this weekend. Rovers are playing well and playing nice football, they put a good performance in at Old Trafford where the only difference between the sides was Ronaldo, but I still think Fulham need to win their home games so badly that they’ll get the win in this one.

Lou’s prediction: Fulham 2 - 1 Blackburn

Newcastle v Liverpool – Saturday 12.45pm Live on Sky Sports 1
I think the big thing about Newcastle is that when they took Sam Allardyce up there, they expected big changes, they expected a complete turn around in form. Newcastle, under previous managers, always seemed quite easy to beat, especially away from home, and funnily enough, they’re still easy enough to beat under Allardyce. He hasn’t really made the impact that some people expected and he certainly hasn’t made the impact he expected. At Bolton he had a team that was tough and difficult to beat, but he’s gone to Newcastle and the form has been poor.

They’re up against a Liverpool side that have been doing exceptionally well away from home and I think that Liverpool will have just a little too much going for them and may well beat Newcastle. The injury to Michael Owen particularly makes me think that it will be Liverpool’s day. You can’t really afford to be without an England centre forward in a game like this. I think it’ll be tight but Liverpool to sneak it.

Lou’s prediction: Liverpool 1-0
______________________________________________________

Bolton v Man Utd – Saturday 3pm Live on Setanta
Bolton have become the draw specialists and I think at this moment in time if you were to ask Gary Megson if he would take a draw against Man Utd, he’d grab it with both hands. I think it’s going to be difficult for Bolton even though they are difficult to beat at the Reebok. Man Utd went there last season and put in arguably their best performance of the season, played some wonderful football, scored some wonderful goals and ran out convincing winners.

If they play anywhere near that level on Saturday, then they will win this game. They’re in great form even thought they are without Wayne Rooney. Because Rooney will still be out and Bolton have become difficult to beat at home, I’d say there will only be a goal in it. It’ll be a Man Utd win, but the fact that Bolton hold them so close could be the shock result of the weekend. Bolton are fighting for their lives, they’ve got the new manager in and he has got them up and running. It’ll be closer than most people expect and I reckon it’ll be a narrow win for Man Utd.

Lou’s prediction: Man Utd 1-0
______________________________________________________

Derby v Chelsea – Saturday 5.15pm Live on Setanta
I think Chelsea are in good form and the same can’t be said for Derby. Teams do come up from the Championship with high hopes of staying in the Premier League and I’m sure Derby were no different, but the way that they are playing and the form they’re in wouldn’t inspire too many bets. They have been absolutely abysmal defensively and when you’ve got two poor central defenders – slow, cumbersome and really out of their depth – you’ve got a problem week in, week out. That match against West Ham summed it up. As a Derby player, you look at that game and think to yourself “this is it, this is where we get our season up and running” but because of their woeful defence, they were totally incapable of doing it.

They won’t be able to hold the Chelsea forward line and people like Frank Lampard at bay. Again it will be too much for Derby County and I’m predicting a comfortable away win for Chelsea.

Lou’s prediction: Chelsea 2-0

Mark Hughes was an old team-mate of mine and it’s great to see him doing such a fantastic job at Blackburn. They’re sitting 5th in the league, playing nice football, scoring goals for fun and again goals should be no problem for them in this match. At the moment, Liverpool are almost the polar opposite. They can’t seem to get the right combination and they won’t if Rafa Benitez keeps changing the side. Rafa is under a bit of pressure at this stage and if Liverpool don’t get a result in this match, their chances of mounting a title challenge would be severely dented.

Liverpool really can’t afford a slip up and as well as Blackburn are playing – and there are plenty of people saying that Rovers can win this game – I can just see Liverpool sneaking home in this game.

I’m going to go for a 1-0 win for Liverpool.

Blackburn v Liverpool Betting

Man Utd have been defending well lately and with 4 goals in each of the last 4 games, it’s fair to say that they’ve also been scoring goals, which wasn’t the case early on in the season. There’s nothing to separate these two teams at the top of the table and without doubt it’s the match of the day and possibly the match of the season if both teams live up to the promise that they’ve shown already.

It’s a difficult one to call. I know Arsenal have home advantage and they’re going great guns at the moment, but I’m still not sure. The big difference about Wenger’s team this year is not only are they playing beautiful football, but they’re also scoring goals, which is something they didn’t do last season and that’s what cost them a serious run at the title. Everywhere you look in the team there is the possibility of goals and it’s Man Utd’s toughest game of the season to date.

I can see this game ending in a 1-1 draw. One thing that you can be certain of is that it’s going to be a ferocious and fierce game. The most important man on the pitch will be Howard Webb, the referee. I’m expecting a lot of bookings and I have no doubt that the Card Index will be high, very high. I can see this being one of the games where Man Utd will be defending for their lives at times and looking for a massive result. Arsenal have that game in hand and if they win they would be 3 points clear with a game more to play so it’s not really must win for Man Utd, but definitely can’t afford to lose.

Arsenal v Man Utd Betting

Portsmouth v Liverpool - Sat. 12.45pm SS1
Match Betting

Derby v Newcastle - Mon. 8pm Set.
Match Betting

Sunderland v Liverpool - Sat 12.45pm SS1.

Man chester United v Tottenham - Sun 4pm SS1

Lou’s Tactic Board
There’s no need to panic for Man Utd despite their poor start. They’ve been playing some superb football but the only problem they’ve had so far has been putting the ball in the back of the net. The loss of Ronaldo and Rooney hasn’t helped but there’s enough attacking quality in the side to beat Spurs. Expect to see Zokora back in the side to help stem the flow, with Giggs and Nani out wide Zokora will need to pick up Scholes coming late into the box. Tevez will benefit from getting a game under his belt. We all know his quality and this could be the game he gets off the mark. Spurs are always shaky away from home, especially at Old Trafford, and this clash will only go one way. More pressure for the increasingly unsafe Martin Jol.