After a brief chat with a friend who also writes about the NFL we came to the conclusion that obvious logic simply doesn’t work out when selecting outcomes in this league.

I opted for my own skewed logic and what do you know? A winner. Let’s make you richer.

It’s amazing what Andrew Luck has been doing. I’ve read articles recently, suggesting that he’s not lived up to the hype of that ‘prototype franchise QB’ tag since entering the league. Nonsense.

The man operates behind a patchwork offensive line with some of the slowest tight ends in the league and a defense that seems to ask him to score more points week after week. Put him in most other franchises right now and you’re a Super Bowl contender.

In saying that, the Colts travel to Houston for Sunday Night Football @01.30. DeAndre Hopkins is a true #1 target, and without depth at corner, that match-up should cause Houston problems. The only contradiction is that Houston are a bit of a problem right now. Luck can surgically take a weak line-backing corps apart with crossing routes from his speedy receivers. I see the W going back with Indianapolis at  

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders 21.05

The Oakland Raiders may be the luckiest team in football. They’re not as good as their record and the Chiefs certainly aren’t as bad as theirs suggests. Odds makers have nodded at this, making it a scratch handicap.

I like the Chiefs here at . It’s a divisional game, so you can take away the home field advantage minus the projected noise because it just doesn’t seem to matter in this division. The AFC West shouldn’t be Raider heavy and it won’t be come season’s end. They’re about to take a reality check in a game most of their fans expect them to win. Andy Reid will go home to Arrowhead happy.

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots 18:00

Nobody likes Tom Brady outside of New England. Everyone respects him, but nobody likes him. I don’t like him to win by nine points this week. The Patriots are most definitely rolling, but the Bengals are built to win over 16 games and they’re grafters.

They may not be coming away with the shock win just yet, but with eight and a half points in hand, they should be plenty good enough to see off New England’s overrated defense at . AJ Green can’t be covered and they’ve got plenty of check-down options. Once the D decides not to combust, that spread should be looking big in retrospect.

Indianapolis (+3, 20/21), Kansas City (Scr, 20/21) & Cincinnati (+8.5) @ 7/1.