Andy Murray is odds-on for glory at SW19 - but history says stick with Federer

Wimbledon 2016 Preview: Down to the final four

It was all looking very straightforward for Andy Murray at Wimbledon this year. Straight sets victories over Liam Broady, Lu Yen-Hsun, John Millman and mental Aussie Nick Kyrgios saw Britain’s number one into the quarter-final after little more than seven hours work. Happy days – even more so as World Number One Novak Djokovic crashed out in the Third Round to American Sam Querrey.

Punters and our team in the Paddy Power trading room reacted faster than a bloke facing a Milos Raonic rocket-serve, and Andy Murray went odds-on to win his second Wimbledon crown.

A significant wobble after being two sets up against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga didn’t put punters off, and as we reach the semi-final stage more than half of the bets in Paddy Power’s Wimbledon book are for the Scot Brit.

58 per cent of punters can’t be wrong – or can they?

Roger Federer and Andy Murray are expected to lock horns in Sunday’s Wimbledon final after seeing off Milos Raonic and Tomas Berdych respectively on Friday afternoon. But if that is the case, Fed Express might be able to serve up an upset on centre court.

Federer is a seven-time Wimbledon champion and has picked up a jaw-dropping 17 Grand Slam singles titles. The 34-year-old is showing no signs of passing his peak, and has beaten Andy Murray in both of their previous meetings at SW19.

While there is little to split them on their head-to-head record (Federer has won 14 to Murray’s 11) recent form points to the Super Swiss man. Their last five meetings which include a game at Wimbledon, the Australian Open and three other ATP Tour events have all gone Federer’s way, with Murray picking up just the single set.

The money is coming for Murray and momentum is with him on home soil, but you never know if those last five defeats will play on his mind. It’s been more than three years since Murray has been able to walk over to the net and shake Roger Federer’s hand after beating him, and when the pressure is on at a potential Wimbledon final, that might just start niggling away at the World Number 2.

Raonic and Berdych will be no semi-final push-overs – they’re not ranked in the top 10 for fun – but the betting suggests it will be an epic showdoen between Murray and Federer come Sunday. Murray will be odds-on to win and will be carrying plenty of patriotic pennies – but there might be a snip of value in backing arguably, the greatest player of all time.